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January 6th - According to a Financial Times survey, former Spanish central bank governor Dirk de Cos and former Dutch central bank governor Heinrich Knot are the most favored candidates among European economists to succeed Lagarde as president of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB presidency will become vacant in November 2027, when current president Christine Lagardes eight-year term expires. Bundesbank president Jean-Claude Nagel and ECB executive board member Joachim Schnabel have both publicly expressed interest in succeeding Lagarde. Of the 70 economists surveyed by the Financial Times, 26% chose de Cos as Lagardes successor, Knot received 24%, Schnabel 14%, and Nagel 7%. Christian Kopp, head of fixed income at UFIDA, stated, "De Cos is the candidate with the strongest technical understanding of monetary policy and central bank operations." Against the backdrop of pressure on the independence of central banks in some countries, appointing a "career technocrat" like de Cos sends a strong signal that "Europe will not waver and the euro will continue to be a strong currency."January 6th - Market analysts said that further signs of weakness in the Middle East crude oil market have exacerbated concerns that a global supply glut could drag down oil prices, while allowing Asian traders to remain relatively calm regarding the situation in Venezuela. On Monday, the Brent-Dubai futures swap spread (EFS) widened to its largest level since August last year, indicating ample supply. At the same time, the Dubai swap forward curve returned to a contango structure, meaning the near-month contract price is lower than the far-month contract price, indicating a bearish trend. Furthermore, the spread between spot cargoes and the Dubai benchmark is narrowing rapidly, reflecting weak demand. "The supply glut is impacting the Middle East market, and almost all indicators point to weakness in the spot market," said Warren Paterson, head of commodities strategy at ING in Singapore.The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds rose 2 basis points to 3.475%.According to the Financial Times: Eni and Repsol are fighting to recover $6 billion in gas payments from Venezuela.Shares of Zhejiang Shibao (01057.HK) in Hong Kong surged in the afternoon, currently up over 15%, with a turnover exceeding HK$300 million.

WTI Price Analysis: Testing the $80 level versus the broad USD

Daniel Rogers

Apr 11, 2023 14:20

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On Monday, crude oil prices are lower as a risk-averse sentiment underpins the U.S. dollar. The price of the black gold is a few cents above its intraday low of $79.71 per barrel and is approaching the range's bottom.

 

Early in April, the Organization of the Oil Exporting Countries and Allies (OPEC+) astonished market participants by announcing a 1.16 million-barrel-per-day reduction in their oil output, which pushed West Texas Intermediate (WTI) approximately 5.5% higher on April 3 and left a $4 void. Since the announcement, WTI has been consolidating between $79 and $81.80, unable to find fresh directionality.

 

Higher energy prices have contributed to inflation's meteoric rise, and OPEC+'s decision came as a complete surprise, reigniting concerns not only about price pressure but also about economic growth.