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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Despite weakening China inflation, WTI crude oil prices surpass $80 per barrel. API inventories are scrutinized

Daniel Rogers

Apr 11, 2023 14:34

 截屏2023-04-06 下午4.29.32_1024x576.png

 

WTI crude oil reaches a new intraday high near $80.40, buoyed by marginally bullish market sentiment and a weakening US Dollar ahead of Tuesday's European session. Even so, the price of black gold remains within a one-week trading range of approximately $2.0 upon the resumption of full markets following the weekend break.

 

Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) breaks a four-day uptrend by falling to 102.35 at press time, down 0.20 percent intraday. In doing so, the greenback bears the weight of remarks made by the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York and the vice chairman of the Fed's rate-setting committee, John Williams, who cites rising chances of benign inflation. Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of global fixed income at BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, said late Monday, according to Reuters, "The Federal Reserve may not need to raise interest rates further to fight inflation, as the aftermath of last month's turmoil in the banking sector and a series of recent labor data point to a slowing US economy."

 

On a separate page, the conclusion of China's military exercises near Taiwan is combined with the Australian-Chinese trade agreement and expectations for increased investment in Japan to illustrate the cautious optimism in the markets. Positive headlines from the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who stated on Monday that the global economy is expected to grow less than 3% in 2023, with India and China expected to account for half of the global growth this year, also favored the optimists.

 

In spite of this, CME's FedWatch Tool forecasts that the US Central Bank will raise rates by 0.25 percentage points in May, which challenges market sentiment and WTI crude oil purchasers. Also weighing on risk appetite and energy benchmark prices could be China's disappointing inflation data and a cautious tone ahead of high-profile US data/events.

 

Above all, the OPEC+ supply limits and rising expectations of increased energy demand from the world's largest energy consumer, China, support the upward momentum of WTI crude oil.

 

Moving forward, the weekly report of Oil inventories from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which was -4,346,000 barrels the week prior, could influence WTI prices. For unambiguous direction, the IMF's spring summit and US inflation, as well as the Fed Minutes, will receive the most attention.

 


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