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The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note fell to a six-month low of 3.6550% and was last at 3.6611%.On April 4, local time on April 3, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert Kennedy Jr. said that about 20% of the layoffs in the Department of Government Efficiency were wrong and needed to be corrected. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services laid off about 10,000 people on the 1st. Kennedy said that people who should not have been laid off were laid off, and the department is restoring their positions. Kennedy said that canceling the entire lead poisoning prevention and monitoring department of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was one of the mistakes. At present, it is unclear what other projects Kennedy may plan to restore.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: Will consider the impact of food costs on consumers.On April 4, local time on the 3rd, the automobile company Stellantis said that due to the impact of the US import automobile tariff policy, the company decided to lay off 900 employees in its five US factories and suspend production operations at two assembly plants in Canada and Mexico. Antonio Filosa, Chief Operating Officer of Stellantis Americas, said that the US factories that were laid off were powertrain and stamping parts factories, which produced spare parts for two assembly plants in Canada and Mexico. According to the plan, the assembly plant in Canada will stop production for two weeks, and the assembly plant in Toluca, Mexico will suspend production throughout April. Filosa said the company is "continuing to evaluate the medium- and long-term impact of tariffs on operations."Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: Non-weather factors may push up food prices.

Despite weakening China inflation, WTI crude oil prices surpass $80 per barrel. API inventories are scrutinized

Daniel Rogers

Apr 11, 2023 14:34

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WTI crude oil reaches a new intraday high near $80.40, buoyed by marginally bullish market sentiment and a weakening US Dollar ahead of Tuesday's European session. Even so, the price of black gold remains within a one-week trading range of approximately $2.0 upon the resumption of full markets following the weekend break.

 

Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) breaks a four-day uptrend by falling to 102.35 at press time, down 0.20 percent intraday. In doing so, the greenback bears the weight of remarks made by the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York and the vice chairman of the Fed's rate-setting committee, John Williams, who cites rising chances of benign inflation. Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of global fixed income at BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, said late Monday, according to Reuters, "The Federal Reserve may not need to raise interest rates further to fight inflation, as the aftermath of last month's turmoil in the banking sector and a series of recent labor data point to a slowing US economy."

 

On a separate page, the conclusion of China's military exercises near Taiwan is combined with the Australian-Chinese trade agreement and expectations for increased investment in Japan to illustrate the cautious optimism in the markets. Positive headlines from the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who stated on Monday that the global economy is expected to grow less than 3% in 2023, with India and China expected to account for half of the global growth this year, also favored the optimists.

 

In spite of this, CME's FedWatch Tool forecasts that the US Central Bank will raise rates by 0.25 percentage points in May, which challenges market sentiment and WTI crude oil purchasers. Also weighing on risk appetite and energy benchmark prices could be China's disappointing inflation data and a cautious tone ahead of high-profile US data/events.

 

Above all, the OPEC+ supply limits and rising expectations of increased energy demand from the world's largest energy consumer, China, support the upward momentum of WTI crude oil.

 

Moving forward, the weekly report of Oil inventories from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which was -4,346,000 barrels the week prior, could influence WTI prices. For unambiguous direction, the IMF's spring summit and US inflation, as well as the Fed Minutes, will receive the most attention.