Natural Gas Price Prediction: XNG/USD depicts corrective rebound near $2.15, 20-month low

Natural Gas (XNG/USD) gains bids to consolidate recent losses near $2.17, gaining 0.55% intraday on Monday. In doing so, the energy source recovers from its lowest levels in twenty months, recorded the previous day, amidst fears of a supply crunch emanating from China and Russia.

The visit of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen to the United States has sparked a new round of tensions between the United States and China, as China conducts large-scale military exercises near the Taiwan Strait. The same could be considered a risk-negative and a major challenge for Gas transportation, allowing the XNG/USD to lick its wounds near levels not seen since August 2020. The island's defense ministry reported multiple air force sorties and was monitoring China's missile forces, as reported by Reuters.

On the other hand, the four-week downward trend of the US Dollar and rumors encircling the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate reduction in late 2023 appear to support the corrective rebound of the quote, due to its inverse relations with the USD.

In addition, the beginning of the summer travel season in Europe and Russia's willingness to heighten geopolitical concerns about Ukraine by employing nuclear weapons in the multi-month-long conflict with Kyiv both favor XNG/USD purchasers.

The price of Natural Gas is impacted by concerns of a dismal winter in the West and Russia's inability to capitalize on its gas monopoly. In a similar vein could be the recession concerns, which are largely supported by the most recent negative US data.

Nonetheless, the ebullient US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) numbers released on Friday bolster hawkish Fed wagers. With this, the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests 69% odds of the 0.25% rate rise in May, versus 55% before the US employment report.

While portraying the atmosphere, S&P 500 Futures print modest losses around 4,132 while snapping a two-day uptrend whereas the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields remain pressured near 3.37% and 3.95% respectively. In doing so, the benchmark bond coupons extend the previous day’s losses and depict the market’s stampede toward the risk-safety amid economic slowdown concerns. Further, the US Dollar Index (DXY) nurses its wounds around a two-month low while the WTI crude oil rises to $80.80 by the press time.

Looking forward, the Easter Monday holiday can restrict the market’s intraday moves. However, updates from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be crucial for near-term directions as speculative assets seem losing their appeal. It’s worth mentioning that the commencement of earnings season will also be essential for traders to monitor amid recession woes.