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On June 16th, Tohru Sasaki, chief strategist at Fukuoka Financial Group and a former Bank of Japan official, stated that a minor surprise was the scale of Japanese government bond purchases. The market had expected the purchase scale to remain largely unchanged after April next year, but it was actually slightly reduced and will remain unchanged thereafter. Therefore, this differs slightly from market consensus. However, the focus is on how Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will articulate future monetary policy. Uchida needs to proceed cautiously at this press conference. It will be very difficult for him to express any major shifts in future policy. Therefore, I believe the market may interpret Uchidas press conference as a dovish signal. The Ministry of Finance may intervene on the day of the Bank of Japans interest rate hike due to the continued weakness of the yen. Looking ahead, I believe the health of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is crucial. If he needs to be replaced for health reasons, his successor will likely be a dovish governor.June 16 – The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its key interest rate unchanged for the first time this year, given that the previous three rate hikes had begun to put pressure on the Australian economy. On Tuesday, all nine members of the committee unanimously voted to keep the cash rate at 4.35%, in line with expectations. RBA Governor Bullock will hold a press conference later, and investors will be watching to see if policymakers will enter a prolonged pause or continue their tightening stance. In its statement, the RBA said, “The cash rate target has been raised three times since the beginning of the year, and current financial conditions are tighter than before, with signs of an economic slowdown emerging as expected.” This pause in rate hikes marks a softening of the RBA’s aggressive tightening policy, which had previously made it stand out among major central banks. While policymakers continue to warn that inflation remains too high and that high energy costs related to the war with Iran pose upside risks, recent weaker data has provided the central bank with room to hold its position and assess the situation.June 16 – On the morning of June 16, President Xi Jinping held talks with Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing, who was on a state visit to China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Xi Jinping pointed out that President Min Aung Hlaing has long been a friend of China. Last year, we met twice and exchanged in-depth views on strategic and directional issues concerning China-Myanmar relations. I am willing to continue to strengthen guidance with you, carry forward the fraternal friendship, deepen comprehensive strategic cooperation, promote the building of a China-Myanmar community with a shared future to achieve more results, bring more benefits to the people of both countries, and make greater contributions to regional peace and development.Reserve Bank of Australia: Signs of economic slowdown are emerging as expected after the 2026 rate hike.Reserve Bank of Australia: The impact of high oil prices on goods and services is becoming apparent.

USD/JPY Falls to Roughly 123.50 as US Treasury Yields Decline

Larissa Barlow

Apr 07, 2022 10:09

  • USD/JPY has fallen to around 123.50 as declining US Treasury rates erode the greenback's value versus the yen.

  • After reaching a three-year high of 2.66 percent, the 10-year US Treasury yields attracted bids.

  • The IIMF has argued for a lengthy period of ultra-loose monetary policy for the BOJ.

 

The USD/JPY pair has fallen strongly in the Asian session to about 123.50 after bouncing around a small range of 123.71-123.93 over the previous day. Thursday's trading session is exhibiting a bearish open rejection-reverse pattern. The USD/JPY began at 123.80, climbed higher to 123.93, and then fell rapidly to a low of 123.50 as yen bulls attacked the asset.

 

Market players have offered the asset as a result of the low performance of US Treasury yields on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields have fallen from 2.66 percent highs, but the 2-year US Treasury yields, which are more sensitive to interest rates, have come under pressure. Bears gained control of Treasury yields as market investors dismissed the hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes.

 

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) study recommends that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy for an extended period of time. Increased commodity prices and a recovery in spending patterns may pressurize the BOJ to lower interest rates, but maintaining a steady dovish approach will benefit the economy. Apart from that, the IMF downgraded Japan's economic growth forecast for 2022 to 2.4 percent from 3.3 percent in January.

USD/JPY

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