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On April 6, German Berenberg Bank said that due to the strong reaction of some US trading partners to the new tariffs and the widespread uncertainty, European economic sentiment in the second quarter may be worse than we previously expected. We lowered our forecast for real GDP growth in the euro area and the UK in the second quarter by 0.1 percentage point to 0.1% and 0.2% month-on-month respectively. This will lower our annual forecast for the euro area economy in 2025 to 0.9%, and our economic forecast for the UK in 2025 and 2026 to 0.9% and 1.3%, respectively.April 6, Germanys Berenberg Bank said that tariff uncertainty has not yet reached its peak. Trumps tariff shock has laid the foundation for negotiations. As long as the results of Trumps negotiations with various countries are unknown, companies around the world may hesitate to invest in the United States or its most affected trading partners. The failure of these negotiations may lead to rounds of tit-for-tat retaliation. Trump may also add new tariffs on specific industries, including medicines, which have so far been exempt from his reciprocal tariffs. We assume that in response to rising US inflation, economic turmoil and threats of retaliation, the United States will negotiate to cancel about half of its new tariffs on Europe by the end of the second quarter. Otherwise, the bank said it would have to further lower its forecasts for US and eurozone growth.The strong earthquake in Myanmar has killed 3,564 people, injured 5,012 people, and left 210 people missing.On April 6, German Berenberg Bank said that downward pressure on US economic growth has intensified. Based on the reciprocal tariffs announced on Wednesday, the sharp decline in US stocks (US households exposure to the stock market has reached a record high), and the continued rise in uncertainty that has hindered corporate investment and employment plans, we have lowered our forecast for US real GDP growth in 2025 from 2.3% to 1.7%, and GDP in 2026 from 2.0% to 1.6%. Due to the increase in tariffs and the recent rise in inflation expectations, we expect US inflation (measured by core PCE) to reach 3.0% in 2025, compared with the previous forecast of 2.7%.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with British Prime Minister Starmer in London on April 24.

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Dollar Bulls Defend the 20-EMA, with 1.3000 in Sight

Drake Hampton

Apr 07, 2022 10:16

  • Failure to break above the 20-EMA will exacerbate the suffering for sterling bulls.

  • The RSI has fallen below 40.00, indicating that there is no hint of divergence and an oversold condition.

  • A location beneath the symmetrical triangle will generate substantial proposals for the cable.

 

After three tumultuous trading days in April, the GBP/USD pair has sensed selling pressure to roughly 1.3167. The pound bulls have been stymied by the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.3095.

 

On a four-hour time scale, the cable has settled itself comfortably beneath the symmetrical triangular formation. This will result in significant volume growth for the asset in the future. The chart pattern's top boundary is represented by the March 25 high of 1.3225, while the lower boundary is marked by the March 15 low of 1.3000.

 

 

At 1.3114, the 50-EMA is scaling lower, adding to the downside filters. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has fallen below 40.00, indicating that additional suffering is imminent. The RSI is not indicating divergence or an oversold condition.

 

A break below Tuesday's low of 1.3067 will bolster greenback bulls, and the pair may fall to the March 16 low of 1.3036, followed by psychological support around 1.3000.

 

On the other hand, the asset will march toward Tuesday's high of 1.3167 after breaching the 50-EMA at 1.3114. If the latter is breached, the asset will be pushed towards the round level resistance at 1.3200.

Four-hour chart of the GBP/USD

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