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RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusueras: Warsh delivered the right hawkish signals at the press conference and attempted to reinforce the Fed’s credibility in restoring price stability, while also enhancing his own credibility.U.S. stocks continued to decline after the Walsh press conference, with the S&P 500 falling 1%, its biggest drop since July 29, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.65%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.6%.On September 17th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh declined to answer questions at a press conference regarding his interactions with US President Trump. Trump has been calling for lower interest rates in recent months. Warsh stated, "I have no comment on my discussions with the president." White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Christopher Phelan said on Tuesday that raising interest rates would be a "mistake."On September 17th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated that he would not disclose details of future interest rate decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). He said, "I am not responsible for providing forward guidance. Our decision today (to raise interest rates) is a carefully considered, serious, and responsible one. We have been preparing for and thinking about this decision for the past 110 or 120 days." Warsh also stated that this decision was not market-driven. He said, "Our decision today is based on our assessment of the current situation, our judgment of the employment trend, and our assessment of the strength of the economy. Sometimes, the market tries to anticipate our decisions. I watch market prices to see what information the market is sending. But todays decision is our own."On September 17th, Warsh stated that while the Federal Reserve cannot prevent price shocks in commodities such as oil on its own, the central bank can use policy tools to prevent further spread of inflationary pressures. Warsh said, "We cannot influence the price of any single commodity, such as oil or groceries." However, he pointed out, "We can and will ensure that any changes in relative prices do not spread further, and do not have second- or third-order effects on the economy. Thats our responsibility, and thats what were doing." Warsh made these remarks as U.S. diesel prices hit a record high due to the Iran war.

When will the Australian trade balance be released, and how will the AUD react?

Drake Hampton

Apr 07, 2022 10:24

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At the top of the hour, Australia's Trade Balance will be released. Westpac analysts forecast a $13.2 billion trade surplus, within a whisker of last July's $13.3 billion top (median forecast $11.7 billion).

 

Analysts forecast exports to increase more in February, by +2.2 percent, or $1.1 billion. They observe that coal and LNG are likely to have advanced in price and volume terms. 

 

"Iron ore demand is projected to drop slightly despite higher prices, as shipments were weak last month. Imports fell -1.6 percent in January, following a 13 percent increase in the previous two months as a result of the post-delta reopening. February is predicted to see a continuation of the rise, +2.2 percent, +$0.8bn, on stronger volumes and rising prices."

What can we anticipate from AUD?

AUD/USD has failed to climb higher despite the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) adopting a more hawkish position on inflation developments by abandoning its 'patient' posture. According to the monetary policy statement, the Australian economy has remained resilient and spending has increased in the aftermath of the omicron setback.

 

The AUD/USD pair surged to a high of 0.7661 but then fell back to the 0.7480s due to a strong US dollar. Unless the surplus surprises positively, the Australian dollar is expected to stay under pressure from the strength of US rates and the dollar.

Concerning the Trade Balance 

The Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes the trade balance, which is the difference between the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export statistics can provide valuable insight into Australian growth, while import data provide insight into domestic demand. The trade balance provides an early indication of the performance of net exports. If there is consistent demand for Australian exports, this will result in positive increase in the trade balance, which should benefit the AUD.

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