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Futures News on February 24: Last Friday, the international commodity market generally fell, and the performance of crude oil can be described as diving, with a drop of more than 3%. 1. Obviously, even though crude oil has risen for several days before, it is still not a variety suitable for strong thinking. The latest data shows that the number of oil drilling rigs in the United States has increased by 7, indicating that Trump will implement his previous promise to reduce energy prices by increasing production, thereby easing inflation. At the same time, senior officials from the United States and Russia have recently had a series of positive contacts. In addition to the war issue, the repair of bilateral relations between the two countries is also discussed as a core issue. This will obviously make the market believe that the relationship between the two countries will warm up, and Russias previous crude oil export sanctions will be gradually lifted. Once the support from the supply side fades, oil prices will easily fall. After all, in the context of the transformation of the global energy industry, the market and major institutions are not very optimistic about the demand prospects for crude oil. The recent rumor that OPEC+ will postpone the production increase plan again is actually a good confirmation. 2. Then, for the 04 contract of WTI crude oil, we need to focus on whether $70 can be held. For the 04 contract of Brent crude oil, $74 is a very important price barrier. Once it cannot be held and is broken downward, it is a pattern signal in technical analysis that the decline may continue.On February 24, the article stated that innovation is endless and policy support also needs to be continuously optimized. There is still room for improvement in the intensity and efficiency of fiscal and taxation forces to support scientific and technological innovation. In terms of intensity, we will coordinate financial resources, increase investment in science and technology, further focus on basic research and national strategic scientific and technological tasks, and fully support the key core technology research. In terms of efficiency, we will deepen the reform of the mechanism for the allocation and use of fiscal science and technology funds, improve the performance of fund use, and give full play to the leverage effect of fiscal funds. Research and improve the structural tax reduction and fee reduction policies that focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation and the development of the manufacturing industry, study the tax system that is compatible with the new business format, promote policies that are more in line with the demands of the market and enterprises, improve the accuracy of policies, promote the direct and quick enjoyment of policy dividends, and help enterprises innovate and develop.According to German news today: Lindner, chairman of the German Free Democratic Party, announced his withdrawal from politics.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated the CDU/CSU and Merz on their victory in the German Bundestag election.On February 24, the leaders of the 27 EU countries will hold an emergency summit on March 6 to discuss the Ukraine issue and the next steps regarding European security. European Council President Costa announced on Sunday that he would hold the summit in Brussels. Costa posted on social media: "We are at a decisive moment for Ukraine and European security." European Commission President von der Leyen and other members of the EU executive will visit Kiev on Monday to express support for Ukraine on the third anniversary of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

USD / JPY Traces Recovery In Yields To Rebound From a One-Month Low To 135.00, US Inflation, And BoJ Minutes Are Anticipated

Alina Haynes

Mar 13, 2023 11:42

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USD / JPY reverses course from the one-month low noted earlier in Asia, gaining bids to 134.50 during the first hour of Tokyo open on Monday. Despite this, the retirement of Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has provoked hawkish demands for the Japanese central bank's next steps. The cautious tone preceding this week's top-tier data/events, such as the BoJ Minutes and the US consumer-centric numbers, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales for February, may also present a challenge to pair purchasers.

 

The Yen pair's recent recovery may be attributable to recently higher US Treasury bond yields and a risk-on market sentiment, primarily driven by US regulators' efforts to contain the financial market risks posed by Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank. However, US 10-year Treasury bond yields recover from their largest daily loss in four months to near 3.75%, while S&P 500 Futures recover from a nine-week low.

 

Over the weekend, the US Treasury Department, Federal Reserve, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) collaborated to reduce the risks posed by SVB and Signature Bank. In a joint statement released minutes ago, the authorities stated that "all depositors of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank will be fully protected."

 

In a joint statement released minutes ago, the authorities stated that "all depositors of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank will be fully protected." Following the US government's late plan to contain the financial crisis, the S&P 500 Futures and US Treasury bond yields consolidate their losses from the previous day.

 

Despite the risk-on sentiment, rising hawkish bets on the Bank of Japan's next move, especially after Kuroda's retirement, appear to exert downward pressure on USD / JPY prices. Observers of the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be similarly undecided following Friday's conflicting US employment data. As a result, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by more than 205K in February, to 311K, compared to 504K (revised), while the Unemployment Rate increased to 3.6% for the month, compared to 3.5% expected and previously. In February, Average Hourly Earnings increased year-over-year but decreased month-over-month, while Labor Force Participation increased.

 

In the future, Wednesday's BoJ Minutes will be crucial in affirming the latest hawkish bias for the Japanese central bank's next move, which, if in accordance with market expectations, could impact USD / JPY prices. If US consumer-centric data is stronger than anticipated ahead of the crucial March Fed Open Market Committee, USD / JPY investors may return (FOMC).