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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

At 1.2100, Bulls in the GBP/USD Market Are Challenging Bear Commitments

Alina Haynes

Mar 13, 2023 11:48

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GBP / USD is 0.33 percent higher after the pair rose from a low of 1.2063 to a high of 1.2103, its largest gain since January 6 as the US Dollar largely weakens following Friday's US employment report.

 

The markets have reduced their bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as aggressively despite the rise in the unemployment rate and signs of wage inflation moderating. The United States added 311,000 positions in February and the unemployment rate increased to 3.6%. Reuters polled economists, who predicted that the United States would have added 205,000 jobs last month and that the unemployment rate would remain unchanged at 3.4%. After gaining 0.3% in January, average hourly earnings increased 0.2% in February, which was less than the 0.3% increase anticipated.

 

In addition, the United Kingdom's economy grew faster than expected in January, easing concerns about a recession. Following a 0.5% decline in December, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the British economy grew 0.3% month-over-month in January. A survey of economists conducted by Reuters indicated growth of 0.1%.

 

The bankruptcy of SVB Financial Group is the largest bank failure since the financial crisis. However, the Biden administration guaranteed on Sunday that all Silicon Valley Bank customers will have access to their funds on Monday. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg announced in a joint statement on Sunday that the FDIC will compensate SVB and Signature's customers in full.

 

The imminent schedule is jam-packed with US consumer Price Index and UK labor market data. As official data continues to catch up to high-frequency indicators, analysts at TD Securities anticipate that the labor market will deteriorate in January, with the unemployment rate increasing and wage growth diminishing. Following last month's upside surprise, the Bank of England will be particularly pleased to see wage growth slow. The release of the US CPI later in the day may result in a muted market reaction, barring a significant surprise.