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French five-year credit default swap spreads rose to a three-month high of 37 basis points, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.On August 26th, UK gilt yields surged to near a 27-year high on Tuesday, increasing pressure on Prime Minister Starmers government to cut fiscal spending. The 30-year UK gilt yield climbed 9 basis points to 5.63%. A rise to 5.66% would mark its highest level since 1998. UK gilt yields followed those of US Treasuries. US Treasuries fell for a second consecutive day as investors demanded higher premiums amid renewed concerns about the Federal Reserves independence. US President Trump previously stated that he would remove Lisa Cook, a board member suspected of falsifying mortgage documents. UK borrowing costs have been under pressure recently, creating an additional challenge for Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves as he drafts his autumn budget. Reeves must implement cost-saving measures or raise taxes to balance the budget.On August 26, Panson macroeconomist Elliott Jordan-Doak said that the Bank of Englands decision to cut interest rates at its recent policy meeting seems increasingly difficult to justify. Earlier this month, as the British economy faced huge economic pressure, the Bank of Englands interest rate setters decided to cut the key bank rate from 4.25% to 4.00% in a rare second round of voting. But Jordan-Doak believes that inflation remains a serious problem. Data released two weeks after the Bank of Englands meeting showed that the annual rate of price inflation accelerated to 3.7% in July, with service industry inflation soaring. Jordan-Doak said that with the improvement in British business confidence, the Bank of England is unlikely to cut interest rates further after August. He said: "The trend of the data shows that the next interest rate cut will not come soon."China Power Port: Operating income in the first half of 2025 was 33.526 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.64%; net profit was 181 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.98%.On August 26, Yuexiu Property (00123.HK) announced that its operating revenue for the first half of the year reached RMB 47.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.6%. Profit attributable to equity holders decreased by 25.2% to RMB 1.37 billion, and its core net profit decreased by 12.7% to RMB 1.52 billion. The board of directors declared an interim dividend of HK$0.166 per share, equivalent to RMB 0.151 per share, representing approximately 40% of its core net profit.

The world's largest independent crude oil trader: oil prices still need to look at OPEC+'s face in the next few months

Oct 26, 2021 10:58

Mike Muller, Asia director of Vitol Group, the world's largest independent crude oil trader, said that in the coming months, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will continue to be the main factor in oil price fluctuations, and pricing control is largely in the hands of OPEC+. . In the United States, if you need additional oil, then your production simply cannot keep up with the number of rigs.

Compared with three years ago, this is a considerable change. At that time, due to the second shale oil boom, the United States became the world's largest oil producer, which was considered to be the main factor in the rise of oil prices.

On Monday (October 4) OPEC+ agreed to maintain the current gradual increase in production plan. At the ministerial meeting that day, OPEC+ member states agreed to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day from November. OPEC+ is still in progress at 580 10,000 barrels per day of production reduction measures, but plans to gradually withdraw the production reduction agreement by April 2022 through increased production. The news of maintaining the existing production increase plan boosted oil prices on Monday. U.S. crude oil hit a new high since November 2014, and Brent crude oil hit a new high since October 2018.

Some analysts said that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is unlikely to acquiesce in requesting more production and lower prices, not only because it benefits from higher prices, but also because some member states cannot increase their production capacity and they do not This oil supply is stored to maintain a higher supply.

Stephen Brennock of the oil broker PVM said on Friday that the outlook for oil prices in the near term is still supportive. The current price trend is a recovery, and only people with strong financial resources will short oil.

If winters in the northern hemisphere are as cold as expected, this dynamic in the oil market may last longer. As Europe’s natural gas reserves are below the 5-year average, despite the bleak long-term outlook, oil demand is likely to remain strong for a long time. This means that OPEC+ will continue to issue orders under the leadership of the member states with the most spare capacity.

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