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The world's largest independent crude oil trader: oil prices still need to look at OPEC+'s face in the next few months

Oct 26, 2021 10:58

Mike Muller, Asia director of Vitol Group, the world's largest independent crude oil trader, said that in the coming months, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will continue to be the main factor in oil price fluctuations, and pricing control is largely in the hands of OPEC+. . In the United States, if you need additional oil, then your production simply cannot keep up with the number of rigs.

Compared with three years ago, this is a considerable change. At that time, due to the second shale oil boom, the United States became the world's largest oil producer, which was considered to be the main factor in the rise of oil prices.

On Monday (October 4) OPEC+ agreed to maintain the current gradual increase in production plan. At the ministerial meeting that day, OPEC+ member states agreed to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day from November. OPEC+ is still in progress at 580 10,000 barrels per day of production reduction measures, but plans to gradually withdraw the production reduction agreement by April 2022 through increased production. The news of maintaining the existing production increase plan boosted oil prices on Monday. U.S. crude oil hit a new high since November 2014, and Brent crude oil hit a new high since October 2018.

Some analysts said that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is unlikely to acquiesce in requesting more production and lower prices, not only because it benefits from higher prices, but also because some member states cannot increase their production capacity and they do not This oil supply is stored to maintain a higher supply.

Stephen Brennock of the oil broker PVM said on Friday that the outlook for oil prices in the near term is still supportive. The current price trend is a recovery, and only people with strong financial resources will short oil.

If winters in the northern hemisphere are as cold as expected, this dynamic in the oil market may last longer. As Europe’s natural gas reserves are below the 5-year average, despite the bleak long-term outlook, oil demand is likely to remain strong for a long time. This means that OPEC+ will continue to issue orders under the leadership of the member states with the most spare capacity.

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