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The global energy shortage continues to ferment, and U.S. oil hits another seven-year high, approaching the 80 mark

Oct 26, 2021 10:58

On Tuesday (October 5), oil prices continued their upward trend. U.S. oil rose by 1.46 US dollars in late trading to close at 79.08 US dollars per barrel; cloth oil rose by 1.38 US dollars to close at 82.64 US dollars per barrel; intraday hit a three-year high of 83.13 US dollars. Point; the day before OPEC+ decided to maintain its supply agreement, rather than further increase production, at the same time due to global supply shortages, the closing price of US natural gas futures jumped to a 12-year high.

OPEC+, formed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the oil-producing allies headed by Russia, insists on the current production increase plan, rather than further increasing production. At the OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia and its partners chose to moderately increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in November, at least until April 2022, and gradually cancel the existing cut of 5.8 million barrels per day. Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn said that the market is aware that there will be a shortage in the next few months, and OPEC seems to be satisfied with this situation.

Oil prices have soared by more than 50% this year. This rise has increased inflationary pressures. Crude oil-consuming countries such as the United States and India are worried that this will undermine the recovery from the epidemic. A source said before Monday’s meeting that despite the pressure to increase production, OPEC+ is worried that the fourth wave of the global new crown epidemic may hit the demand recovery.

US natural gas futures prices jumped to a 12-year high on Tuesday, as global supply shortages exacerbated concerns about insufficient supply in the US before the winter in the northern hemisphere. Gary Cunningham, head of market research at Tradition Energy, said that the surge in global natural gas prices may stimulate some power plants to switch from natural gas to oil, which means that crude oil prices may continue to be supported, although there may be a short-term correction. I think there will be some profit-taking...but we will usher in a winter when natural gas prices are very high. It is estimated that the price of Brent crude oil will be around US$80 and that of US crude oil will be around US$70.

Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at Price Futures Group Inc., said that there is no room for error in the system, and if there is a cold winter, prices may rise sharply.

According to data released by the American Petroleum Institute earlier, as of the week of October 1, crude oil inventories increased by 951,000 barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 3.68 million barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 345,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 2 million barrels. After the data was released, the response to oil prices was flat, with U.S. oil remaining above $79. Investors will pay attention to the crude oil inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday to find further directions.

(4 hours chart of US Oil)

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