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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

In The S&P 500 The Wyckoff Upthrust and Volume Pattern Indicate That Further Weakness Is On The Way

Cameron Murphy

Apr 18, 2022 11:01


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The S&P 500 E-mini futures saw a Wyckoff upthrust (UT) of the prior resistance set by the automatic rally (AR) in early February 2022 on March 31, 2022. This was the first red signal in the downswing's attempt to test support.


The Wyckoff upthrust, also known as a false breakout, is a regular occurrence in which wise funds sell into strength in order to offload their holdings, but the majority of merchants buy into the enthusiasm for fear of losing out on the powerful advance.


The short-covering rally was overbought, and a Wyckoff upthrust (UT) appeared on March 31, 2022, when the automated rally's resistance was breached. During the upthrust, the volume showed an increase in supply. Following that, the downturn was followed by strong supply consistency and a widening of the price differential, indicating that supply is under control.


Failure to commit above the axis line at 4450, where support has become resistance, indicates that the downswing will continue. S&P 500 is projected to test the next support region around 4200-4280 if the support range between 4380-4400 fails to hold. So far, the S&P 500 has been stuck in a large trading range of 4100-4600, as characterized by the selling climax (SC), secondary test (SC), and automatic rally (AR) (AR).


Until shown differently, the directional bias is still to the negative since the indication of weakness fell below 4600 in January 2022. Market volatility is still high, which isn't one of the Wyckoff accumulation structure's features. As the large trading range continues to expand, it is helpful to utilize the Wyckoff approach to examine price action features such as price spread, velocity, and progress, as well as supply and demand as represented in volume, to build a directional bias.

Trading Strategy for Stock Market Sector Rotation

Despite the current market volatility, there are still a lot of solid uptrending stocks in outperforming sectors that are good for swing trading. The S&P 500's choppy performance is due to a sector rotation, which may not represent the complete picture of the market situation.


There are 353 bullish setup stocks vs 518 negative setup stocks, as seen in my stock screener below. Many of the positive stocks are in commodity-related industries, such as oil and gas, milling, agricultural chemicals, precious metals miners, and so on.


The smart money is focused on these outperforming groupings. To be successful in this turbulent market, it is critical to trade with the trend and where the money flows.

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