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U.S. Energy Secretary Wright: Every barrel of oil the U.S. releases from its strategic petroleum reserve will be replenished.On May 15th, it was reported that India will cooperate with the United Arab Emirates to expand its strategic oil and gas reserves, a significant step taken by the worlds third-largest oil consumer to address the risk of future supply disruptions. According to a statement from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), the company will consider significantly increasing its crude oil storage capacity in India, aiming to reach 30 million barrels. The two countries will also cooperate on establishing a strategic natural gas reserve in India and explore the construction of crude oil storage facilities at the port of Fujairah, located outside the Strait of Hormuz. This preliminary agreement was announced during Indian Prime Minister Modis brief stopover in Abu Dhabi en route to Europe.On May 15th, Wang Yi briefed the media on the meeting and consensus reached between the Chinese and US heads of state. During the meeting, the two leaders agreed to define a "constructive strategic and stable relationship between China and the US" as the new positioning of bilateral relations, providing strategic guidance for China-US relations over the next three years and beyond. China believes this should be a positive and stable relationship based primarily on cooperation, continuously enhancing the resilience of China-US relations through exchanges and cooperation. As the worlds two largest economies, cooperation between China and the US benefits both sides, while confrontation harms both. Even if there is competition between China and the US, it should be benign competition based on mutual learning, positive competition where both sides strive to catch up, and fair competition that adheres to the rules. The purpose of competition is to help both sides become better versions of themselves. Both sides should maintain policy continuity and stability, especially upholding their commitments, and always moving towards each other, providing more certainty for their respective development and the international situation through positive expectations of China-US cooperation. In short, a "constructive strategic and stable relationship between China and the US" is not just a slogan, but a goal that both sides uphold and actions that they take together.Market news: Türkiye is reportedly planning to raise $1.2 billion to build fuel pipelines for its Eastern European NATO allies.On May 15, Wang Yi briefed the media on the meeting between the Chinese and US leaders and the consensus reached. Wang Yi pointed out that the Taiwan issue was one of the key topics of the meeting. The Taiwan issue is the most important issue in China-US relations; it has far-reaching consequences. If handled well, bilateral relations can maintain overall stability, allowing both sides to devote more energy to mutually beneficial cooperation. If handled poorly, the two countries will clash or even clash, pushing the entire China-US relationship into a very dangerous situation. China hopes that the US will take concrete actions to safeguard the stable development of China-US relations and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. Maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is the greatest common denominator between the two sides. The prerequisite for achieving this is that "Taiwan independence" must not be supported or condoned, because "Taiwan independence" and peace across the Taiwan Strait are incompatible. During the meeting, we felt that the US understands Chinas position, values Chinas concerns, and, like the international community, does not recognize or accept Taiwans path to independence.

Canadian Dollar Outlook: CAD Extends Rally After Yesterday’s BoC Decision

Cory Russell

Apr 15, 2022 10:55

USD/CAD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

The USD/CAD exchange rate began lower this morning as a result of lower US Treasury rates (a lower expectation for US inflation) and a weaker dollar. The Bank of Canada's (BoC) 50 basis point rate boost yesterday spurred a CAD surge, clawing back recent losses. In the long run, though, I prefer the dollar because I don't believe the Canadian economy can keep up with the Fed's aggressive policy. As we go through the rightening cycle, the dollar should strengthen versus the loonie.


Crude oil prices are still high, but their impact on the USD/CAD has lessened since the US is now a net crude oil producer. This can be seen in the USD/CAD price movement, where the CAD has been relatively quiet in comparison to prior crude oil price increases.


We have a couple option expiries for the New York cut later today (see details below). As the cut approaches, prices on huge expiries tend to approach the strike price. USD/CAD is now slightly higher than the below strikes, suggesting a move down later in the day.


1.2550 (289M) USD/CAD, 1.2560-70 USD/CAD (923M)


USD/CAD ECONOMIC CALENDAR As we move into the Easter weekend, retail sales and consumer confidence in the United States will round off the week, while Canadian inflation will take center stage next week.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USD/CAD seems to be headed for a retest of the psychological support level of 1.2500, which is part of a building bear flag. This gloomy prognosis is definitely plausible in the short term, but as I have said, USD upside is my favored strategy after Q2.

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: MIXED

Retail traders are now significantly LONG on USD/CAD, according to IGCS, with 62 percent of traders holding long bets (as of this writing).