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On November 14th, Daiwa Research reported that JD.com (09618.HK) delivered a pleasant surprise with its Q3 retail operating profit margin reaching 5.9%, while losses in new businesses were in line with the banks expectations. During the period, both quarterly active users and user frequency in new businesses increased by 40% year-on-year, with annual active users exceeding 700 million in October. Driven by order volume, the gross merchandise volume (GMV) of the food delivery business grew by double digits quarter-on-quarter, and losses also narrowed quarter-on-quarter due to improvements in the catering order structure and average order value; limited advertising revenue was also generated. The bank lowered its 2025-26 earnings per share forecasts for JD.com by 4% to 6% to reflect weaker-than-expected operating revenue from JD Logistics; the target price was lowered from HK$205 to HK$176, while reiterating a "buy" rating.The Indian government says a joint statement will be issued following the India-Canada trade and investment dialogue.On November 14th, according to Tianyancha App, Xiaomi Automotive Technology Co., Ltd. recently published a patent application for "Vehicle Speeding Warning Method, Device, Vehicle, Storage Medium, and Program Product." The abstract shows that this disclosure relates to the field of vehicle technology, including: collecting object information from the vehicles environment using sensors, selecting preset types of objects as reference objects based on the object information, obtaining the vehicles relative speed to the moving reference objects, and outputting speeding warning information when the relative speed is within the speeding warning threshold range, thereby improving driving safety.On November 14th, Bank of America Securities issued a research report initiating coverage of Innoscience (02577.HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HK$108. Innoscience is a leading manufacturer of gallium nitride (GaN) power semiconductors, holding the largest global market share by revenue last year at 30%. Bank of America Securities is optimistic about Innosciences long-term growth prospects, citing factors including the rapid growth of the global GaN power semiconductor market at a CAGR of 63% (2024-2028); economies of scale and technological innovation leading to continued improvement in profitability; and the potential for revenue growth from 2027 onwards through its collaboration with NVIDIA on an 800VHVDC architecture. Bank of America Securities forecasts Innosciences revenue CAGR of 72% from 2024 to 2027, with a net profit margin of 12.1% in 2027.On November 14th, CICC released a report stating that Bilibili (09626.HK) reported a 5% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 7.69 billion in the third quarter, exceeding CICCs forecast of RMB 7.61 billion. Non-GAAP net profit reached RMB 787 million, better than CICCs forecast of RMB 563 million, mainly benefiting from rapid growth in advertising revenue and better-than-expected gross margin performance. Based on the improving gross margin trend, CICC raised its 2025 and 2026 net profit forecasts for Bilibili by 7.8% and 2.3% respectively, to RMB 2.44 billion and RMB 3.06 billion. CICC raised its target prices for Bilibilis US-listed shares and H-shares by 7.4% and 7.8% respectively, to US$29 and HK$220, maintaining its "Outperform" rating.

Canadian Dollar Outlook: CAD Extends Rally After Yesterday’s BoC Decision

Cory Russell

Apr 15, 2022 10:55

USD/CAD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

The USD/CAD exchange rate began lower this morning as a result of lower US Treasury rates (a lower expectation for US inflation) and a weaker dollar. The Bank of Canada's (BoC) 50 basis point rate boost yesterday spurred a CAD surge, clawing back recent losses. In the long run, though, I prefer the dollar because I don't believe the Canadian economy can keep up with the Fed's aggressive policy. As we go through the rightening cycle, the dollar should strengthen versus the loonie.


Crude oil prices are still high, but their impact on the USD/CAD has lessened since the US is now a net crude oil producer. This can be seen in the USD/CAD price movement, where the CAD has been relatively quiet in comparison to prior crude oil price increases.


We have a couple option expiries for the New York cut later today (see details below). As the cut approaches, prices on huge expiries tend to approach the strike price. USD/CAD is now slightly higher than the below strikes, suggesting a move down later in the day.


1.2550 (289M) USD/CAD, 1.2560-70 USD/CAD (923M)


USD/CAD ECONOMIC CALENDAR As we move into the Easter weekend, retail sales and consumer confidence in the United States will round off the week, while Canadian inflation will take center stage next week.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USD/CAD seems to be headed for a retest of the psychological support level of 1.2500, which is part of a building bear flag. This gloomy prognosis is definitely plausible in the short term, but as I have said, USD upside is my favored strategy after Q2.

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: MIXED

Retail traders are now significantly LONG on USD/CAD, according to IGCS, with 62 percent of traders holding long bets (as of this writing).