Short SPX: Top Trade Opportunities

It's possible that the shot across the bow is to blame. The rally, which started in late March, will be closely monitored since it might be a "sucker's rally" rather than a relief rally. If this is the case, Q2 is likely to see a lower high.

Price isn't expected to rise much over 4600, if at all. A rally that extends beyond that point may still fail as a double-top. The market normally does not retrace more than 60-70 percent of the slide off the record high to reach the classic topping sequence of a high, major drop, lower-high before the massive bear market sell-off.

WEEKLY CHART OF THE S&P 500

It may take some time for the downward trend to become an outright drop. The longer it goes on, the bigger the sell-off is going to be. It's preferable for markets to have fast, painful drops rather than long topping cycles that finally lead to quick selling.

This might be a new leg higher to a new record high, but the background for a massive top seems to be as strong as it has been in recent history. If this is the case, the whole year should be turbulent, providing traders with plenty of possibilities.