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New York gold futures surged 4.00% intraday, currently trading at $5286.10 per ounce.On January 28th, China Railway Industry Corporation (CRIC) announced that its newly signed contracts for 2025 amounted to RMB 44.396 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.79%. Among these, the business of special engineering machinery and related services increased by 6.70% year-on-year, while the business of transportation equipment and related services decreased by 11.90% year-on-year. The total value of major contracts signed/won in the fourth quarter was RMB 2.532 billion, accounting for approximately 8.73% of the companys operating revenue in 2024.Eurozone money markets currently estimate a 25% probability of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates by July, compared to 15% on Tuesday.1. Bank of America: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2026, in June and July respectively. 2. Goldman Sachs: Expects the Federal Reserve to implement two rate cuts this year, with the first cut in June. 3. Morgan Stanley: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September. 4. Barclays: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and December this year. 5. EY Bordrin: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points this year, but not until the second half of the year. 6. JPMorgan Chase: No longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2026; the next action is expected to be a 25 basis point rate hike in the third quarter of 2027. 7. KBC: The next rate cut may not come until March, by 25 basis points. A further 25 basis point cut may be made in the second quarter to reach the neutral interest rate level. 8. Oxford Economics: The Federal Reserve will maintain its policy unchanged until June. A decline in inflation will allow the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates sooner if the labor market weakens further. 9. ING: The baseline forecast is for the Fed to cut rates in March and June, but the apparent risk now is that this pace could be delayed by three months overall. The Feds "dual mandate" will face more pressing pressure to achieve a rate cut in March. 10. ANZ: A pause in rate cuts in January was appropriate, but a prolonged pause is unnecessary. They forecast the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points each in March and June. 11. Wells Fargo: Given the two months of economic data to be released before the March meeting, rate cuts could come earlier, in March and June. The risk to their forecast leans towards a delay in the timing of rate cuts.The China Earthquake Networks Center automatically determined that an earthquake of approximately magnitude 3.3 occurred at 15:27 on January 28 near Sunan County, Zhangye City, Gansu Province (38.93 degrees north latitude, 98.22 degrees east longitude). The final result is subject to the official rapid report.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers from 0.86 before to German GDP

Alina Haynes

Oct 28, 2022 15:29

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During the Tokyo session, the EUR/GBP exchange rate of 0.8610 attracted increased interest. Prior to the announcement of German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, the asset broke above a tight consolidation between 0.8610 and 0.8620.

 

The risk profile has detected a comeback as S&P500 futures have reduced their gains. Additionally, the US dollar index (DXY) has declined to roughly 110.35.

 

Following Thursday's announcement of monetary policy by the European Central Bank, bulls of common currencies faced a sharp sell-off (ECB). Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), announced a 75 basis point (bps) consecutive rate increase and a push of interest rates to 1.5%, the highest level since 2009, in order to combat the record inflation jump and ensure a speedy return to 2%.

 

The less forceful tone of policy directives hurt euro bulls. Christine Lagarde appeared dovish during the press conference, but Commerzbank analysts still forecast a big rate hike at the December meeting.

 

The future focus of investors will be on German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. The consensus predicts that the annual GDP growth rate for the third quarter will be 0.8%, down from the previous reading of 1.7%. Quarterly GDP data will demonstrate a 0.2% drop.

 

In order to establish financial stability, the novel UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has shifted his whole attention to lowering the pile of debt. According to the Financial Times, Sunak is proposing tax increases and budget cuts of up to 50 billion GBP, which is consistent with the plan of the Bank of England (BOE). Next week, investors will focus only on the monetary policy of the Bank of England. As the first interest rate decision following Sunak's candidacy as British prime minister, the monetary policy decision will have a significant impact.


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