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US President Trump: Americans are paying higher gasoline prices, but its a "very cheap price" relative to what the US has achieved.On September 17, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) announced a 25 basis point increase in its benchmark interest rate to 4.25%. This is the first adjustment to the benchmark interest rate by the HKMA since 2023, ending a period of interest rate stability. This rate hike is a direct response to the Federal Reserves policy change on the same day. The HKMA stated explicitly that following the Feds policy is to maintain the Hong Kong dollars peg to the US dollar. Under this system, the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar, and Hong Kongs monetary policy must be linked to the US to ensure exchange rate stability. Despite the increase in the benchmark interest rate, the market remains cautious about the actual changes in local credit costs in Hong Kong. As is customary, major Hong Kong banks typically announce their own interest rate adjustment plans later that day after the HKMAs adjustment, with changes to the prime lending rate being particularly crucial.Multiple explosions were heard in Kyiv, Ukraine, in the early hours of September 17 local time.US President Trump: (Regarding Iran) I predict the war will end soon, and the government has transformed the United States from a “dark age” to a “golden age.”September 17th - US President Trump: "That war? That war will be over soon. Just watch. You just watch. Trump is right about everything. You just watch. They are being destroyed. They (Iran) very much want a deal. They call and say, We want a deal!"

As China PMIs decrease, the Fed moves, and US NFP is predicted, USD/CNH surpasses 7.2800

Alina Haynes

Oct 31, 2022 16:37

截屏2022-10-31 上午11.11.46.png 

 

As China's monthly activity data disappoints offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) investors, the USD/CNH continues to draw buyers for a third consecutive day on Monday, advancing 0.23 percent intraday to 7.2850 as of press time. Concerns regarding covid difficulties in the dragon kingdom and apprehensions regarding a hawkish move by the Federal Reserve also encourage buyers to remain positive.

 

As a result, China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI for October dropped to 49.2, compared to the expected 50.0 and the previous 50.1. In addition, the Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, below market estimates of 51.9 and previous readings of 50.6. Following the publication of the data, Reuters produced an article "In October, China's factory activity unexpectedly dropped, according to a survey released by the government on Monday. Global demand decline and strict COVID-19 regulations impeded manufacturing."

 

Due to the US dollar's status as a safe haven, the shutdown of a casino resort in Macau and Russian concerns also add to the USD/appreciation. Russia, which invaded Ukraine on February 24, halted its participation in the Black Sea agreement for a "indefinite period" on Saturday because it could not "guarantee the protection of civilian ships" traveling under the treaty after its Black Sea naval was attacked.

 

The fact that US Treasury yields are directionless after a bad economic report is notable, as is the fact that US stocks futures are seeing modest losses as the Dow Jones prepares for its highest monthly gain since 1976. In addition, the US Dollar Index (DXY) demonstrates a three-day increase near 110.80, with an intraday increase of 0.1% as of press time.

 

In conclusion, the USD/CNH bulls may maintain control because China's fundamentals are weaker than those of the United States. Concerns that the Fed may suggest slowing the pace of rate hikes beginning in December have recently appeared to test buyers of currency pairs.


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