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On July 14th, Nomura lowered its non-IFRS net profit forecasts for Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 2% and 1% respectively, reflecting the potential pressure on profit margins from continued increased investment in AI. Nomura maintained its "Buy" rating with an unchanged target price of HK$727. The bank noted that Tencent has made positive progress in the AI field in recent months, including the launch of the widely acclaimed Hunyuan 3.0 official version in early July, and the desktop AI assistant WorkBuddy becoming one of the most popular PC AI agents in mainland China. Nomura believes that Tencent has the ability to narrow the gap with current leading AI companies. However, as competitors such as Alibaba and ByteDance have also launched similar PC AI agent products, and user switching costs and willingness to pay are low, competition in the relevant market is expected to remain fierce in the short term.According to Iranian media Fars News, the Bahrain banking system suffered a cyberattack, resulting in service disruptions.On July 14th, CMB International slightly lowered its 2026 fiscal year Non-IFRS net profit forecast for Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) by 1%, considering its continued investment in AI, and lowered its target price from HK$750 to HK$735, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. The bank stated that it remains optimistic about the return on investment (ROI) of Tencents AI investments, and expects that in the second half of 2026, with the launch of WeChats AI agent "Xiaowei," the continuous upgrade of the Hunyuan large-scale model, and the growth of cloud business driven by increased computing power, these factors are expected to be important catalysts for improving the companys fundamentals and valuation.On July 14th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the import and export situation of goods trade in the first half of 2026. Wang Jun, Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs, discussed the reasons for the rapid growth in imports in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, my countrys imports reached 10.74 trillion yuan, exceeding 10 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period in history, representing a growth of 22.1%, 8.7 percentage points higher than the export growth rate. Chinas contribution to foreign trade growth was also greater than that of exports, promoting balanced trade development. As the worlds largest manufacturing country and the worlds second largest consumer market, my country has a vast market with enormous potential. my country has been the worlds second largest import market for 17 consecutive years, with an average annual growth of 5.1%, and its share of global imports has increased from 7.9% to about 10%. Proactively expanding imports is a necessary condition. my country has orderly expanded its independent and unilateral opening-up, implemented zero-tariff policies for 63 countries, and successfully held international exhibitions such as the China International Import Expo, the China International Consumer Goods Expo, and the China Chain Store & Franchise Expo, providing a "window" for global goods to enter the Chinese market. In the first half of the year, my countrys imports from more than 150 countries and regions achieved growth.July 14th - From July 9th to 10th, the 2026 Summer National Coal Trade Fair, hosted by the China Coal Industry Association and the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, was held in Urumqi, Xinjiang. The theme was "Strengthening the Role of Coal as a Safety Net and Improving the Level of Coal Safety Guarantee." Liu Hongbo, Director of the Coal Division of the Economic Operation Regulation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the quality of long-term contract signing and performance has continued to improve, the overall supply of thermal coal has been effectively guaranteed, and the basic supply base has been continuously strengthened. Coal remains my countrys greatest source of confidence in coping with the complex energy situation. "In the first half of the year, coal enterprises released production capacity in accordance with laws and regulations, strictly fulfilled long-term contract performance, and national coal production was at a historically high level for the same period," said Shi Ying, Vice Chairman of the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association. Industry insiders revealed that in the first half of this year, the average daily output of raw coal remained stable at over 12 million tons, and the coal reserves of power plants under national unified dispatch exceeded 200 million tons, with an average usable period of over 30 days. Chen Pei, Deputy Director of the Logistics Center of China State Railway Group, introduced that in the first half of the year, the national railway coal transport volume reached 1.05 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, of which 700 million tons were thermal coal.

As China PMIs decrease, the Fed moves, and US NFP is predicted, USD/CNH surpasses 7.2800

Alina Haynes

Oct 31, 2022 16:37

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As China's monthly activity data disappoints offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) investors, the USD/CNH continues to draw buyers for a third consecutive day on Monday, advancing 0.23 percent intraday to 7.2850 as of press time. Concerns regarding covid difficulties in the dragon kingdom and apprehensions regarding a hawkish move by the Federal Reserve also encourage buyers to remain positive.

 

As a result, China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI for October dropped to 49.2, compared to the expected 50.0 and the previous 50.1. In addition, the Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, below market estimates of 51.9 and previous readings of 50.6. Following the publication of the data, Reuters produced an article "In October, China's factory activity unexpectedly dropped, according to a survey released by the government on Monday. Global demand decline and strict COVID-19 regulations impeded manufacturing."

 

Due to the US dollar's status as a safe haven, the shutdown of a casino resort in Macau and Russian concerns also add to the USD/appreciation. Russia, which invaded Ukraine on February 24, halted its participation in the Black Sea agreement for a "indefinite period" on Saturday because it could not "guarantee the protection of civilian ships" traveling under the treaty after its Black Sea naval was attacked.

 

The fact that US Treasury yields are directionless after a bad economic report is notable, as is the fact that US stocks futures are seeing modest losses as the Dow Jones prepares for its highest monthly gain since 1976. In addition, the US Dollar Index (DXY) demonstrates a three-day increase near 110.80, with an intraday increase of 0.1% as of press time.

 

In conclusion, the USD/CNH bulls may maintain control because China's fundamentals are weaker than those of the United States. Concerns that the Fed may suggest slowing the pace of rate hikes beginning in December have recently appeared to test buyers of currency pairs.