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In the face of weak yields ahead of FOMC and NFP, USD/JPY maintains a position below 148.40

Daniel Rogers

Oct 31, 2022 16:39

 截屏2022-10-31 上午11.13.13.png

 

The USD/JPY pair surpasses 148.0 for the second day in a row, gaining 0.45% but retreating from the day's peak of 148.26. Recent inactivity in the yen pair may be related to the market's ambivalence as well as nervousness ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting announcements and the October US employment report.

 

Despite this, the 10-year US Treasury rate fluctuates at 4.00% after ending a 10-week uptrend on Friday. The inconsistent performance of stocks adds to the challenge for USD/JPY traders, as US equity futures report minor losses as the Dow Jones prepares for its highest monthly gain since 1976.

 

Industrial Production in September was dismal, while Retail Sales earlier in the day buoyed yen bulls. According to Reuters, "Japan's factory output fell in September for the first time in four months as manufacturers grappled with rising raw material costs and a worldwide economic crisis," and is anticipated to fall again in October before recovering in November.

 

As a result of the US dollar's function as a safe haven, the USD/JPY appreciates in response to news of the shutdown of a casino resort in Macau and concerns emanating from Russia. Russia, which invaded Ukraine on February 24, halted its participation in the Black Sea agreement for a "indefinite period" on Saturday because it could not "guarantee the protection of civilian ships" traveling under the treaty after its Black Sea naval was attacked. Fears that the Fed may suggest a reduction in the rate of rate hikes beginning in December appear to be pressuring pair buyers recently.

 

In contrast to the Fed's hawkish posture, the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) unwillingness to alter monetary policy keeps USD/JPY buyers confident.


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