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On May 14th, US international trade commodity prices rose sharply in April, with import prices (market expectation +1.0%) rising 1.9% month-over-month and export prices (market expectation +1.1%) surging 3.3%. This much-anticipated increase indicates that the ongoing conflict with Iran continues to exert pressure on input costs, a point already reflected in the Feds Beige Book in early April as a compression of corporate profit margins. Core import prices (excluding fuel) had already begun to rise significantly before the Iran conflict, and this months 0.8% increase was the same as in February, but this may already include the secondary impact of rising energy prices. Food and feed prices were also significantly affected by rising oil prices, rising 1.1% in March and then another 0.9% in April. Industrial supplies and raw materials (excluding fuel) rose 1.6%; fuel prices surged 16.3%. Capital goods prices were also worrying, rising 1.1%. Consumer goods rose 0.4%, a relatively moderate increase, but still high; automobile prices fell slightly by 0.1%.On May 14th, executives from over ten well-known American companies accompanied President Trump on his visit to China, including Apple CEO Tim Cook, Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and Qualcomm President and CEO Cristiano Amon. In an interview, Amon stated that the Chinese economy is dynamic.The SC crude oil futures contract fell 2.00% during the day, currently trading at 617.40 yuan per barrel.The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre reports a 5.5-magnitude earthquake in the Colombian region.May 14th - Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has increased this week, but analysts warn that more vessels are turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) tracking signals during transit. According to Lloyds List, a shipping publication, tanker owners are preparing for prolonged shipping disruptions as regional risks remain high. Current traffic volume is still far below pre-conflict levels. At that time, approximately 130 vessels carrying about 20% of the worlds oil and gas supply passed through the strait daily.

In the face of weak yields ahead of FOMC and NFP, USD/JPY maintains a position below 148.40

Daniel Rogers

Oct 31, 2022 16:39

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The USD/JPY pair surpasses 148.0 for the second day in a row, gaining 0.45% but retreating from the day's peak of 148.26. Recent inactivity in the yen pair may be related to the market's ambivalence as well as nervousness ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting announcements and the October US employment report.

 

Despite this, the 10-year US Treasury rate fluctuates at 4.00% after ending a 10-week uptrend on Friday. The inconsistent performance of stocks adds to the challenge for USD/JPY traders, as US equity futures report minor losses as the Dow Jones prepares for its highest monthly gain since 1976.

 

Industrial Production in September was dismal, while Retail Sales earlier in the day buoyed yen bulls. According to Reuters, "Japan's factory output fell in September for the first time in four months as manufacturers grappled with rising raw material costs and a worldwide economic crisis," and is anticipated to fall again in October before recovering in November.

 

As a result of the US dollar's function as a safe haven, the USD/JPY appreciates in response to news of the shutdown of a casino resort in Macau and concerns emanating from Russia. Russia, which invaded Ukraine on February 24, halted its participation in the Black Sea agreement for a "indefinite period" on Saturday because it could not "guarantee the protection of civilian ships" traveling under the treaty after its Black Sea naval was attacked. Fears that the Fed may suggest a reduction in the rate of rate hikes beginning in December appear to be pressuring pair buyers recently.

 

In contrast to the Fed's hawkish posture, the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) unwillingness to alter monetary policy keeps USD/JPY buyers confident.