US futures
Europe
FTSE -0.2% at 7563
Dax -1% at 13978
Euro Stoxx -1% at 3800
Stocks are rising, while PPI inflation is rising faster than projected.
Following a marginally lower finish on Tuesday, US stocks are set for a calm morning as investors assess the latest US consumer inflation data and the start of earnings season.
Consumer prices were at a 40-year high Tuesday, according to inflation figures. The PPI inflation data, which measures wholesale inflation, showed a jump of 11.2 percent today, up from 10% in February and ahead of the prediction of 10.5 percent. PPI inflation is at an all-time low, implying that consumer prices are unlikely to fall any time soon.
Over the last week, expectations of a more hawkish Fed have bolstered the dollar while dragging down stocks. The market is putting in an 87 percent chance of a 0.5 percent hike at the May meeting, according to the CME Fed Funds. This was up from 81% the day before the CPI was released.
Separately, the headlines in Russia and Ukraine are focusing on the collapse of peace negotiations and the resurgence of oil prices.
In business news, US banks began their earnings season today, with JPMorgan getting off to a shaky start. As deal-making slowed in the aftermath of the Russian conflict and amid uncertainty about the future, the bank posted EPS of $2.63, down from $4.50 the year before and missing the $2.73 projection.
Where does the Dow Jones go from here?
The Dow Jones was rejected around 35380, dropping below the 200-day moving average, and is now challenging the 50-day moving average and the falling trendline support. The candle's extended upper wick, along with the MACD's bearish crossing, shows that there may be more downside to come. Sellers will attempt to break through 34100, yesterday's low, in order to decrease the price to 33500, the January 25 low, and 34200, the January low. On the other hand, if the support holds, buyers may try to reclaim the 200 sma at 35075.
Markets for foreign exchange The dollar is rising, while the yen is falling.
The US dollar index, which has surged to a 23-month high on hawkish Fed wagers, is pushing a few ticks higher for the 11th day in a row.
On central bank divergence, the USD/JPY is trading at a new 7-year high and aiming for a 20-year high. Overnight, Kudros of the Bank of Japan reaffirmed the central bank's accommodating position.
GBP/USD is up a few points after UK inflation statistics showed that in March, inflation rose to a new 30-year high of 7% YoY, up from 6.2 percent in February and ahead of predictions of 6.7 percent. Fears that a hawkish Bank of England may push the UK into recession have pushed the pound down to roughly 1.30.
GBP/USD +0.1% at 1.3011
EUR/USD +0.04% at 1.0850
Oil extends gain
Oil prices jumped 4% yesterday, crossing the $100 mark, and are climbing again today as chances for a diplomatic solution to the Russian conflict diminish. Meanwhile, weaker data out of China is limiting advances.
The most recent round of peace negotiations ended in a deadlock, with Russia accusing Ukraine of derailing the discussions and threatening to escalate its military operations. The statements come as the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that 1.5 million barrels of Russian oil would be missing from the market in April, increasing to 3 million barrels in May as a result of Western sanctions and logistical constraints.
OPEC has said that it would be hard to replace lost Russian oil and that it has no plans to increase supply.
Although statistics revealed that Chinese oil imports declined 14 percent owing to lockdown limitations, the lifting of lockdown restrictions in China supports demand.
WTI crude trades +1.7% at $101.98
Brent trades +1.7% at $106.14
Looking ahead
15:00 BoC rate decision
15:30 EIA crude oil inventories
16:15 BoC press conference
Real-time News
