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1. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.48% to 46,565.74 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.72% to 6,575.32 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.16% to 21,840.95 points. Boeing rose more than 4%, and Caterpillar rose more than 3%, leading the Dow Jones gains. The Wind U.S. Tech Big Seven Index rose 1.13%, with Google rising more than 3% and Tesla rising more than 2%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 0.31%, with Zai Lab rising more than 8% and Hesai Technology rising more than 7%. 2. All three major European stock indexes closed higher. The German DAX rose 2.73% to 23,298.89 points, the French CAC40 rose 2.1% to 7,981.27 points, and the UK FTSE 100 rose 1.85% to 10,364.79 points. The rapid easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boosted European stock markets and led to a decline in oil prices, alleviating inflationary pressures and energy cost concerns. This provided room for the European Central Bank to adjust its monetary policy and enhanced the attractiveness of risk assets. 3. Most US Treasury yields rose: the 2-year yield rose 1.01 basis points to 3.803%, the 3-year yield rose 1.73 basis points to 3.830%, the 5-year yield rose 1.22 basis points to 3.953%, the 10-year yield rose 0.20 basis points to 4.319%, and the 30-year yield fell 1.33 basis points to 4.899%. 4. The WTI crude oil futures contract closed down 2.44% at $98.91 per barrel; the Brent crude oil futures contract fell 3.59% to $100.24 per barrel. First, market expectations for a US-Iran ceasefire and the withdrawal of US troops from Iran have increased, significantly easing concerns about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which had previously supported oil price increases. Second, US crude oil inventories rose far more than expected last week, reaching near-record highs, further pressuring oil prices due to expectations of ample supply. Third, the US plan to release strategic petroleum reserves also put downward pressure on oil prices. 5. International precious metals futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures rising 2.27% to $4784.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising 0.38% to $75.20 per ounce. Crude oil prices retreated from their highs, easing inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the US dollar index fell for the second consecutive day to around 99.4, making dollar-denominated precious metals more attractive to holders of non-US currencies. 6. London base metals rose across the board. LME lead rose 1.89% to $1,939.0/ton, LME zinc rose 1.77% to $3,283.5/ton, LME aluminum rose 1.75% to $3,527.5/ton, LME tin rose 1.50% to $47,450.0/ton, LME copper rose 1.11% to $12,472.5/ton, and LME nickel rose 1.02% to $17,285.0/ton.Japan Meteorological Agency: Following the earthquake near Indonesia, there may be slight sea level changes along the Japanese coast, but no tsunami is expected.The U.S. tsunami warning system warned that following the earthquake, some coastal areas of Indonesia may experience tsunami waves 0.3 to 1 meter above the tide level.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a 7.4-magnitude earthquake occurred in the Maluku Strait of Indonesia at 06:48 on April 2, with a focal depth of 30 kilometers.The U.S. tsunami warning system warns that tsunami waves triggered by the earthquake may occur along the coasts of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia within 1,000 kilometers of the epicenter.

Stock Markets Analysis – Is Recession Possible?

Skylar Shaw

Jun 30, 2022 14:50

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Data released yesterday showed that consumer confidence decreased more than anticipated in June, reaching a six-month low, adding fuel to those worries.

consumer assurance

According to the Conference Board, the decline was caused by rising inflation and worries about a potential recession. Consumers' expectations for wage growth, the job market, and business conditions have dropped to their lowest points in over a decade, giving them a rather bleak short-term picture for the economy as a whole.


Bulls, on the other hand, highlight specifics from the Consumer Confidence report that show US consumers do not intend to cut back on spending as much as some have feared, with future spending plans for automobiles and other expensive items like refrigerators and washing machines actually increasing... so they claim. Given that gas prices have increased by up to $5 a gallon in many areas and that grocery store food prices are much higher than they were in the past, it's difficult for me to see where people would find the bigger lump sums of money.


You have to think that the US consumer will eventually reach a credit card limit and lose the ability to refinance and leverage their properties. Remember that consumer spending makes up over 70% of our economy, so if it declines, the economy will as well.


How much will consumer spending slow down, I wonder? Perhaps not much right now, but if the Fed keeps raising interest rates and the price of food and energy continues to rise—which I believe it will—the US consumer will ultimately suffer greatly.

Q2 earnings

For S&P 500 businesses, experts on Wall Street presently forecast Q2 profit growth of +4.3 percent, down from approximately +6 percent at the end of March. As we approach Q2 earnings season, which "unofficially" begins on July 13 with reports from major Wall Street Banks, many on Wall Street believe that expectations will be lowered even more.


Investors today will be analyzing more remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will take part in a panel discussion at a bank symposium sponsored by the European Central Bank.


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