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February 20th - Japans consumer price growth slowed in January, providing more breathing room for the central banks next policy move. Data released by the Japanese government on Friday showed that the national core consumer price index (excluding volatile fresh food) rose 2.0% year-on-year in January, the slowest pace in two years, after rising 2.4% in December. Since April 2022, Japans inflation rate has remained at or above the Bank of Japans 2% target level. The timing of the Bank of Japans next interest rate hike remains a focus of market attention. Although central bank officials expect food price inflation to ease, a weaker yen could push up import costs. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis plan to suspend the food and beverage consumption tax for two years could further complicate the inflation outlook. While tax cuts may initially lower prices, this move could also stimulate consumer spending, leading to an overheated economy and ultimately exacerbating inflationary pressures.On February 20th, former Goldman Sachs strategist Robin Brooks believes that the decade-long trend of the dollar rising based on better-than-expected US monthly non-farm payroll data is coming to an end, marking a "system shift" as traders will sell the dollar on strong US job market data. He stated that the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and if the Fed adopts a policy of limiting long-term nominal yields, strong non-farm payroll data could lower real yields, weaken the attractiveness of US assets, and ultimately lead to a weaker dollar. Brooks said, "The market may have doubts about Trumps policies because they have been capricious and unpredictable. The Fed has also been repeatedly attacked." He was referring to President Trumps repeated calls for central bank rate cuts. He added, "All the moves are aimed at lowering interest rates, and I think thats what the market is subconsciously thinking about." As evidence of this phenomenon, the better-than-expected January jobs report released on February 11th had almost no boosting effect on the dollar; instead, it had the opposite effect.Japans nationwide unadjusted CPI fell 0.1% month-on-month in January, compared with a previous reading of -0.2%.Japans core CPI rose 2% year-on-year in January, the smallest increase since January 2024.Japans national CPI rose 1.5% year-on-year in January, below the expected 1.60% and the previous reading of 2.10%.

S&P 500 (SPY) Remains Mixed In Choppy Trading

Cory Russell

Sep 20, 2022 14:37

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Healthcare Stocks Drop Following Biden's Remarks It's a Pandemic

The S&P 500 is trying to close below 3850 as Treasury rates continue to rise in advance of the Fed Interest Rate Decision. The yield on 2-year Treasuries is attempting to settle above the 3.95% mark as traders brace themselves for an aggressive Fed.


It should be emphasized that the retreat today is not significant. The worst-performing equities today are in the healthcare sector after U.S. President Joe Biden declared the epidemic to be finished. In today's trade, Moderna's shares fell by roughly 10% while Pfizer lost 2%.


Large-cap tech stocks perform inconsistently. While Microsoft is reaching new lows, Apple is recovering from the most recent setback.


Along with the oil markets, energy equities recovered from their session lows. Leading oil companies Exxon Mobil and Chevron, however, have not been able to return to the positive zone.


Trading will probably continue to be tense before the Fed announcement. The big issue is whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell gives a hawkish signal since markets have already factored in a 75 basis point rate increase.


Traders are now concerned that abrupt rate increases could cause the economy to enter a true recession, which will result in job losses and lower corporate earnings. Given this, the market will react quite strongly to Powell's remarks.

Support Remains Solid at 3850

S&P 500 dropped below 3885 and is now testing support at 3850. Since the RSI is still in the positive range, there is still plenty of space for more downward momentum to develop should the proper triggers materialize.


The S&P 500 will go toward the next support level at 3825 if it manages to settle below 3850. The next support at 3800 will be tested if this level is successfully tested.


The S&P 500's closest upward resistance level is found at 3885. The S&P 500 will go toward the next barrier at 3900 if it rises again above this level. The S&P 500 will be pushed toward the barrier of 3920 if it moves over 3900.