S&P500 Update: The Bears Are In Charge, Is 3300 Next?

After three waves up, five waves down

The S&P 500 has completed five Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) waves downward since the mid-August peak. Look at Figure 1 below. This pattern indicates to me that the market's current prevailing route is once again downward. In addition, the rally from June to August was just three waves long—a corrective, counter-trend rally. Therefore, a break below SPX3886—the low from last week and the low from today—tells me an impulsive path is probably emerging, as indicated.

A Break Below SPX3886 Lets a Waterfall Decline Through

An impulsive pattern with ideal target zones of SPX3515-3400 for (red) W-iii/c, a probable W-iv bounce back to preferably SPX3675-3785, and a last decline to ideally SPX3230-3330 to complete W-v of W-c of W-A is made possible by a break below the early September low of SPX3886.

This overall wider picture W-A has a tiny subtlety, but the expected path and downside goals remain the same. I'll therefore talk about it when we arrive. In contrast, the index has to rise over this week's high of 4119 to signal that a bearish trend is not developing and that 4500 is the next level. But for the time being, I want to gaze downward.