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On December 19th, according to Futures News, crude oil prices continued to rise slightly, and the news in the fuel oil market improved somewhat. However, the supply and demand of various products still differed, and refineries shipped at different paces. Market participants lacked confidence in future trading, and most purchases were small orders for immediate needs. It is expected that fuel oil trading will continue to be stable in the short term.On December 19th, Goldman Sachs predicted that the Bank of England will cut interest rates three times in 2026. Previously, the bank had predicted cuts in February, April, and July; it has now revised its forecast to March, June, and September. Goldman Sachs pointed out that slowing hiring, rising unemployment risks, and easing wage pressures are the main reasons supporting rate cuts. Although the market is currently pricing in a relatively moderate pace of rate cuts, if data confirms weakening economic activity and anchored inflation expectations, the Bank of Englands rate cuts could be more aggressive than investors anticipate. For the market, a deeper easing cycle could put pressure on the pound while supporting UK risk assets.SK Hynixs gains widened to 2.5% in early trading.The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported that UK car production fell 14.3% year-on-year in November, with 65,932 passenger and commercial vehicles produced.The UKs GfK consumer confidence index for December was -17, compared to a forecast of -18 and a previous reading of -19.

S&P500 Update: The Bears Are In Charge, Is 3300 Next?

Florala Chen

Sep 19, 2022 15:21

After three waves up, five waves down

The S&P 500 has completed five Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) waves downward since the mid-August peak. Look at Figure 1 below. This pattern indicates to me that the market's current prevailing route is once again downward. In addition, the rally from June to August was just three waves long—a corrective, counter-trend rally. Therefore, a break below SPX3886—the low from last week and the low from today—tells me an impulsive path is probably emerging, as indicated.

微信截图_20220919151821.png

A Break Below SPX3886 Lets a Waterfall Decline Through

An impulsive pattern with ideal target zones of SPX3515-3400 for (red) W-iii/c, a probable W-iv bounce back to preferably SPX3675-3785, and a last decline to ideally SPX3230-3330 to complete W-v of W-c of W-A is made possible by a break below the early September low of SPX3886.


This overall wider picture W-A has a tiny subtlety, but the expected path and downside goals remain the same. I'll therefore talk about it when we arrive. In contrast, the index has to rise over this week's high of 4119 to signal that a bearish trend is not developing and that 4500 is the next level. But for the time being, I want to gaze downward.

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