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On January 9th, a Goldman Sachs survey found that geopolitical factors have driven institutional investors pessimistic view of oil to its highest level in nearly a decade, with the global market facing a supply glut. According to the Goldman Sachs survey, over 59% of more than 1,100 clients across various asset classes are bearish or slightly bearish on the crude oil market. This percentage is slightly higher than the lowest monthly level since records began in January 2016. Last year, crude oil prices suffered their worst performance since 2020 due to increased production from OPEC+, record increases in US production, and increased supply from countries like Brazil and Guyana. This year, the supply glut is expected to widen further. An end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict would likely eliminate supply disruptions and sanctions on Russian crude. Meanwhile, the US plans to control future oil sales from Venezuela, pushing the South American nations crude onto the market.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a 5.2-magnitude earthquake occurred in Tajikistan (37.55°N, 74.81°E) at 00:59 on January 9, with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.Goldman Sachs: Investor pessimism about oil is near a 10-year high.The schedule shows that Azerbaijani BTC crude oil exports from the port of Ceyhan in February totaled 519,000 barrels per day, down from 523,000 barrels per day in January.The Atlanta Feds GDPNow model projects U.S. GDP growth of 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from a previous forecast of 2.7%.

S&P500 Update: The Bears Are In Charge, Is 3300 Next?

Florala Chen

Sep 19, 2022 15:21

After three waves up, five waves down

The S&P 500 has completed five Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) waves downward since the mid-August peak. Look at Figure 1 below. This pattern indicates to me that the market's current prevailing route is once again downward. In addition, the rally from June to August was just three waves long—a corrective, counter-trend rally. Therefore, a break below SPX3886—the low from last week and the low from today—tells me an impulsive path is probably emerging, as indicated.

微信截图_20220919151821.png

A Break Below SPX3886 Lets a Waterfall Decline Through

An impulsive pattern with ideal target zones of SPX3515-3400 for (red) W-iii/c, a probable W-iv bounce back to preferably SPX3675-3785, and a last decline to ideally SPX3230-3330 to complete W-v of W-c of W-A is made possible by a break below the early September low of SPX3886.


This overall wider picture W-A has a tiny subtlety, but the expected path and downside goals remain the same. I'll therefore talk about it when we arrive. In contrast, the index has to rise over this week's high of 4119 to signal that a bearish trend is not developing and that 4500 is the next level. But for the time being, I want to gaze downward.

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