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1. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.54% to 49,395.16 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.28% to 6,861.89 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.31% to 22,682.73 points. Boeing fell more than 2%, leading the decline in the Dow. The Wind U.S. Tech Big Seven Index fell 0.29%, with Apple falling more than 1%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.35%, with LuKong falling more than 3% and BaWangChaJi falling more than 2%. 2. Most of the three major European stock indexes closed lower. The German DAX fell 0.93% to 25,043.57 points, the French CAC40 was flat at 8,429.03 points, and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.55% to 10,627.04 points. 3. A report released by the U.S. Treasury Department shows that in December of last year, 14 major countries and regions reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with a total reduction of $88.4 billion. The total holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by overseas "creditors" fell to $9.27 trillion. The top three overseas "creditors" of the U.S.—Japan, the UK, and China—all chose to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds. Among them, Japans holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds decreased by $17.2 billion to $1.1855 trillion, while the UK significantly reduced its holdings by $23 billion, with its holdings falling to $866 billion. 4. The U.S. crude oil futures contract closed up 2.49% at $66.67 per barrel; the Brent crude oil futures contract rose 2.25% to $71.93 per barrel. 5. International precious metals futures generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 0.12% to $5015.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.09% to $78.44 per ounce.The yield on Japans 5-year government bond fell 1.0 basis point to 1.620%.Japans preliminary services PMI for February was 53.8, down from 53.7 in the previous month.Japans preliminary manufacturing PMI for February was 52.8, down from 51.5 in the previous month.Japans preliminary composite PMI for February was 53.8, compared to 53.1 in the previous month.

S&P500 Update: The Bears Are In Charge, Is 3300 Next?

Florala Chen

Sep 19, 2022 15:21

After three waves up, five waves down

The S&P 500 has completed five Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) waves downward since the mid-August peak. Look at Figure 1 below. This pattern indicates to me that the market's current prevailing route is once again downward. In addition, the rally from June to August was just three waves long—a corrective, counter-trend rally. Therefore, a break below SPX3886—the low from last week and the low from today—tells me an impulsive path is probably emerging, as indicated.

微信截图_20220919151821.png

A Break Below SPX3886 Lets a Waterfall Decline Through

An impulsive pattern with ideal target zones of SPX3515-3400 for (red) W-iii/c, a probable W-iv bounce back to preferably SPX3675-3785, and a last decline to ideally SPX3230-3330 to complete W-v of W-c of W-A is made possible by a break below the early September low of SPX3886.


This overall wider picture W-A has a tiny subtlety, but the expected path and downside goals remain the same. I'll therefore talk about it when we arrive. In contrast, the index has to rise over this week's high of 4119 to signal that a bearish trend is not developing and that 4500 is the next level. But for the time being, I want to gaze downward.

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