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On January 9th, a Goldman Sachs survey found that geopolitical factors have driven institutional investors pessimistic view of oil to its highest level in nearly a decade, with the global market facing a supply glut. According to the Goldman Sachs survey, over 59% of more than 1,100 clients across various asset classes are bearish or slightly bearish on the crude oil market. This percentage is slightly higher than the lowest monthly level since records began in January 2016. Last year, crude oil prices suffered their worst performance since 2020 due to increased production from OPEC+, record increases in US production, and increased supply from countries like Brazil and Guyana. This year, the supply glut is expected to widen further. An end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict would likely eliminate supply disruptions and sanctions on Russian crude. Meanwhile, the US plans to control future oil sales from Venezuela, pushing the South American nations crude onto the market.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a 5.2-magnitude earthquake occurred in Tajikistan (37.55°N, 74.81°E) at 00:59 on January 9, with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.Goldman Sachs: Investor pessimism about oil is near a 10-year high.The schedule shows that Azerbaijani BTC crude oil exports from the port of Ceyhan in February totaled 519,000 barrels per day, down from 523,000 barrels per day in January.The Atlanta Feds GDPNow model projects U.S. GDP growth of 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from a previous forecast of 2.7%.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Search For a Bottom

Alice Wang

Sep 20, 2022 14:45


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

During Monday's trading session, the E-mini contract for the S&P 500 originally declined, but it has since recovered and begun to show signs of life. The market seemed to want to rally after doing this, but I understand that there is a lot of noise above. If we can return to the 4000 level, any rise at this point should be seen as a possible selling opportunity.


Remember that the market will be anticipating Jerome Powell's remarks, which will be quite tiresome since everyone already knows what he will say. For a lot of individuals, however, hope endures forever, so they will have to wait until the announcement.


3800 will be the objective if we were to break down below the candlestick's bottom from the previous couple of days. The 50-Day EMA is just 34 points above the 4000 level and slopes downward if we break above that level. Nothing out there tells me I should be purchasing equities, so at this time I am perfectly content to just wait for a chance to start shorting again at a higher level.


In light of this, the 3800 level has significance since a break through it increases the likelihood that we will test the lows once again and even fall further lower. I believe we are in the process of kicking off the second leg down because the enormous candlestick that occurred last week is the kind of candlestick that virtually never occurs in a vacuum.