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On April 17th, former US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called on the US government to develop contingency plans to prevent a potential collapse in demand for US Treasury bonds. He warned that such a scenario would have "extremely serious" consequences. Paulson stated, "We need an emergency response plan that is targeted, short-term, and prepared in advance, ready to be activated once a tipping point is reached." Paulson said that if the $31 trillion US Treasury market were to fail, its nature would be different from the financial crisis he dealt with two decades ago. "Back then, the situation was already bad, but the government still had fiscal space to deal with the credit crisis. But if a US public debt crisis occurs, reaching a tipping point, and when trying to issue Treasury bonds, only the Federal Reserve is a buyer, while Treasury bond prices fall and interest rates rise, it will be a very dangerous situation." For years, US budget experts have warned of a potential "vicious cycle": as government debt continues to expand, investors demand higher yields, pushing up government interest payments and further widening the fiscal deficit. In extreme cases, if the Treasury cannot raise enough funds to pay interest or principal, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will have to intervene as an emergency buyer. Paulson stated, "If it happens, the impact will be very severe, so we must prepare for that possibility."ECB Governing Council member Nagel: The ECB must maintain flexibility in its choices and cannot make any commitments at this time.April 17th - Data released by the Federal Reserve on Thursday showed that the size of U.S. commercial paper increased in the week ending April 15th. The seasonally adjusted balance of commercial paper increased by $51.1 billion to $1.413 trillion in the latest week. The unadjusted balance of commercial paper increased by $26.6 billion to $1.437 trillion. The unadjusted balance of commercial paper held by foreign financial institutions increased by $10.2 billion to $361.8 billion.European Central Bank Governing Council member Nagel: The war with Iran could reduce Germanys growth by 0.3 percentage points this year.British Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves: I prefer not to fund higher defense spending through tax increases or increased borrowing.

Price Analysis of the US Dollar Index: DXY Retreats from 104.00, Rising Wedge Anticipated

Alina Haynes

May 12, 2022 10:27

During Thursday's Asian session, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fails to continue the previous two days' upward momentum, trading on the defensive around 103.95.

 

In doing so, the dollar index remains near the 20-year high reached earlier in the week, but for the first time in three days, the daily decline is recorded.

 

In addition to highlighting a 12-day-old rising wedge bearish pattern surrounding the multi-day top, the DXY's most recent decline also reveals a multi-day top-adjacent rising wedge formation. The slow RSI also highlights the significance of the chart pattern.

 

However, a decisive breach below 102.90 is required to validate the potential decline to 101.30.

 

During the fall, the 100-SMA and monthly low between 102.65 and 102.35 will serve as intermediate stops.

 

Until the quote continues below the indicated wedge's resistance line, approximately 104.30 as of press time, a recovery appears elusive.

 

After that, a slow climb to the September 2002 high of 109.80 cannot be ruled out.

Four-hour DXY chart

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