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On September 11th, the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September came in at 47.8, marking the second consecutive monthly decline, though the drop was less than 4 points. Both Democrats and Republicans saw significant declines, while independents remained largely unchanged from August. Expectations for personal finances and business conditions over the next year fell sharply. With rebounding fuel prices and escalating trade tensions, consumers anticipate greater pressure on their wallets in the future. Five-year expectations for business conditions remained stable, but the reading was well below historical averages, suggesting that consumers believe the new risks emerging this month may not further worsen the long-term outlook. Overall, consumer confidence is currently 16% lower than before the start of the Iran conflict in February and 13% lower than a year ago. Inflation expectations for the next year jumped to 4.6% this month from 4.0% last month, the highest reading since June. The current reading significantly exceeds the 3.4% in February before the Iran conflict and also surpasses all readings for 2024. Long-term inflation expectations rose slightly to 3.4%, ending three consecutive months at 3.3%. These expectations remain above the 2.8% to 3.2% range for 2024.The preliminary reading for the U.S. five- to ten-year inflation rate in September was 3.4%, compared to a forecast of 3.3% and a previous reading of 3.30%.The preliminary reading for the US one-year inflation rate in September was 4.6%, down from the expected 4.2% and the previous reading of 4.00%.The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September was 47.8, below the expected 51 and the previous reading of 51.7.The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Current Conditions Index for September was 50.9, below the expected 51.3 and the previous reading of 51.9.

Price Analysis of the US Dollar Index: DXY Retreats from 104.00, Rising Wedge Anticipated

Alina Haynes

May 12, 2022 10:27

During Thursday's Asian session, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fails to continue the previous two days' upward momentum, trading on the defensive around 103.95.

 

In doing so, the dollar index remains near the 20-year high reached earlier in the week, but for the first time in three days, the daily decline is recorded.

 

In addition to highlighting a 12-day-old rising wedge bearish pattern surrounding the multi-day top, the DXY's most recent decline also reveals a multi-day top-adjacent rising wedge formation. The slow RSI also highlights the significance of the chart pattern.

 

However, a decisive breach below 102.90 is required to validate the potential decline to 101.30.

 

During the fall, the 100-SMA and monthly low between 102.65 and 102.35 will serve as intermediate stops.

 

Until the quote continues below the indicated wedge's resistance line, approximately 104.30 as of press time, a recovery appears elusive.

 

After that, a slow climb to the September 2002 high of 109.80 cannot be ruled out.

Four-hour DXY chart

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