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1. Commerzbank: Expects the rate to remain unchanged at this meeting, with another rate hike in September. President Lagarde will emphasize inflation risks but is unlikely to commit to a September rate hike ahead of schedule. 2. Scotiabank: Expects the rate to remain unchanged at this meeting due to the current period of high uncertainty. However, market sentiment indicators suggest a hawkish stance remains dominant overall. 3. ING: Expects the rate to remain unchanged at this meeting, but the possibility of an unexpected rate hike cannot be ruled out. The central bank is expected to release hawkish signals, and a September rate hike remains the main market theme. 4. Daiwa Securities: Expects the rate to remain unchanged at this meeting. The September meeting will be a possible point for the next rate hike. The meeting statement is expected to continue to avoid forward guidance and reiterate that there is no predetermined path for interest rates. 5. TD Securities: Expects the rate to remain unchanged at this meeting. President Lagarde is expected to continue to leave open the possibility of a September rate hike at the press conference, but will not provide clear forward guidance. 6. Nuveen: Expects the rate to remain unchanged at this meeting, but will maintain a tighter tone. If renewed tensions drive up energy prices, the central bank will remain open to further tightening policy. 7. Deutsche Bank: Expects the meeting to keep interest rates unchanged and maintains its baseline expectation of a second and final rate hike (to 2.50%) in September. 8. Morgan Stanley: Expects the meeting to keep interest rates unchanged; only the uncertainty surrounding oil prices is enough to prompt the central bank to avoid a clear bias in either direction in its policy statement or press conference. 9. Danske Bank: Expects the meeting to keep interest rates unchanged; President Lagarde is expected to continue to maintain ample flexibility in the future policy path, leaving the possibility of a September rate hike uncommitted. 10. BNY Mellon: Expects the meeting to keep interest rates unchanged; the central banks policy communication will remain closely linked to its macroeconomic scenario, and a "severe" deterioration path remains a tail risk. 11. MUFG: The possibility of consecutive rate hikes at this meeting is extremely low; the continued rebound in energy prices supports the forecast of a further 25 basis point rate hike in September. 12. Nordea Bank: A July rate hike may not be under consideration by the central bank if energy prices do not rise significantly, but the probability of a September rate hike remains high, suggesting the central banks rate hike cycle is not yet over. 13. Reuters poll: All 74 economists said the central bank will keep rates unchanged in July. 52 of the 74 economists expect the central bank to raise rates again in 2026. 14. Franklin: Expects the European Central Bank to raise rates for the last time in September, then remain on hold and begin easing policy in 2027.July 23 - CaiKe New Energy (01986.HK) announced that it expects its profit for the six months ended June 30, 2026 to be no less than RMB118 million, representing a significant increase of no less than RMB88 million compared to the profit of approximately RMB30 million for the six months ended June 30, 2025, representing an increase of no less than 293.3%. The company also expects to record a profit attributable to owners of the parent company of no less than RMB90 million for the six months ended June 30, 2026, representing a significant increase of no less than RMB80.7 million compared to the profit attributable to owners of the parent company of approximately RMB9.3 million for the six months ended June 30, 2025, representing an increase of no less than 867.7%.A Reuters poll shows that 70% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates to at least 1.50% in the second quarter of 2027; 51% of respondents believe 1.50% is the terminal rate.A Reuters poll found that 79% of economists believe the yen is too weak at around 160 against the dollar relative to Japans economic fundamentals.New car registrations in the 27 EU countries rose 13.6% year-on-year in June (compared to 3.2% in the previous month).

Price Analysis of the US Dollar Index: DXY Retreats from 104.00, Rising Wedge Anticipated

Alina Haynes

May 12, 2022 10:27

During Thursday's Asian session, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fails to continue the previous two days' upward momentum, trading on the defensive around 103.95.

 

In doing so, the dollar index remains near the 20-year high reached earlier in the week, but for the first time in three days, the daily decline is recorded.

 

In addition to highlighting a 12-day-old rising wedge bearish pattern surrounding the multi-day top, the DXY's most recent decline also reveals a multi-day top-adjacent rising wedge formation. The slow RSI also highlights the significance of the chart pattern.

 

However, a decisive breach below 102.90 is required to validate the potential decline to 101.30.

 

During the fall, the 100-SMA and monthly low between 102.65 and 102.35 will serve as intermediate stops.

 

Until the quote continues below the indicated wedge's resistance line, approximately 104.30 as of press time, a recovery appears elusive.

 

After that, a slow climb to the September 2002 high of 109.80 cannot be ruled out.

Four-hour DXY chart

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