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On October 25th, local time, Sudans Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced their control of Bara, a major city in North Kordofan State, central Sudan. The statement stated that the RSF launched a full-scale offensive against the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)-held city, inflicting thousands of casualties and injuring hundreds, ultimately securing full control of the city. The statement also stated that retaking Bara is a significant step toward full control of the Kordofan region. The SAF has yet to respond to the statement.Pakistans Defense Minister: We see Afghanistans desire for peace, but failure to reach an agreement will mean open war.On October 25th, local time, the second round of ceasefire talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan began in Istanbul, Turkey. The talks were hosted by Turkey and held at an Istanbul hotel. The Pakistani delegation included the militarys director of operations and security and intelligence officials. The Afghan delegation was led by Deputy Interior Minister Rahmatullah Najeeb.On October 25th, Belgorod Oblast Governor Ilya Gladkov announced that Ukrainian armed forces had damaged the Belgorod Reservoir Dam. He stated that Ukrainian forces might attempt to attack and destroy the dam again. If this were to happen, several streets in riverbanks and settlements near Kharkiv Oblast would be flooded, impacting the lives of approximately 1,000 residents. Gladkov stated that local authorities have advised residents at risk of flooding to move to temporary relocation sites. The Ukrainian side has not yet responded to this request.On October 25th, Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Villeroy warned lawmakers debating the 2026 budget that the deficit must not exceed 4.8% of economic output to ensure France can cope with its growing debt burden. The French National Assembly is currently debating a draft budget that targets 4.7% GDP growth, but Prime Minister Jean-Claude Le Cornu has said the ultimate target should be within 5%, and he is seeking a compromise with opposition lawmakers. "It is absolutely necessary to keep the deficit below 3% between now and 2029, which would imply a maximum deficit of 4.8% next year," Villeroy de Villeroy said in an interview with La Croix. He also stated that France faces the risk of "progressive suffocation" from debt and that additional deficit spending will fail to stimulate economic growth. According to calculations by the Bank of France, if debt uncertainty is reduced, a 1% reduction in the household savings rate would boost economic growth by 0.4%. However, Villeroy de Villeroy stated that the French economy has strong momentum this year and growth will be "at least" as strong as the Banks forecast of 0.7%.

GBP/USD to Test 1.2260; Downside Remains Favored Due to Rising US CPI; UK GDP Watched

Daniel Rogers

May 12, 2022 10:13

The GBP/USD pair has broken to the negative from its week-long consolidation between 1.2260 and 1.2400. The asset may test the lower range of consolidation to confirm the bears' strength, but the downside remains intact as rising US inflation data has increased the likelihood of a massive rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in June.

 

Wednesday's 8.3 percent reading for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) surpassed the 8.1 percent forecast by theștiindștiind. Market analysts anticipated that the Fed's June monetary policy would include a 50 basis point (bps) interest rate hike in response to the US CPI reading of 8.1%. Now, a higher-than-anticipated US inflation rate has increased the likelihood of a 75 basis point rate hike. This has shook the foreign exchange market, and investors are selling risky assets like there is no tomorrow.

 

In the meantime, the US dollar index (DXY) is trying to maintain its position above 104.00, although the upside remains intact. Regarding the British pound, investors anticipate the announcement of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. The quarterly GDP estimate for the United Kingdom is predicted to be 1 percent, compared to the previous estimate of 1.3%, while the annual estimate is projected to be 9 percent, compared to the previous estimate of 6.6%. A higher-than-anticipated UK GDP may protect the pound from additional losses, whilst a weaker-than-anticipated figure would accelerate the asset's decline.

GBP/USD

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