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April 27th - A survey of businesses access to financing released by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Monday showed that, affected by the war in Iran, eurozone businesses expect short-term inflation to rise, but long-term expectations remain stable, and wage growth expectations are actually slowing. The survey, covering over 10,000 businesses, including both pre- and post-war responses, showed no signs of a second wave of inflation, easing some concerns ahead of Thursdays meeting. The ECB stated that one-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.0% from 2.6% three months ago, while three- and five-year inflation expectations remained unchanged. Businesses did not raise their wage expectations; instead, they reported a slowdown in wage growth expectations. The ECB stated, "The Middle East war has significantly increased businesses expectations for selling prices and input costs, but has not affected wage expectations." The survey showed that wages are expected to grow by 2.8%, down from 3.1% three months ago. Businesses expect selling prices to rise by 3.5%, while input costs, including energy, are expected to rise by 5.8%.The European Central Banks survey on corporate financing channels shows that short-term inflation expectations have risen significantly, while medium-term expectations remain stable. Businesses anticipate the Iran war will drive a sharp increase in sales prices, but wage expectations have weakened slightly.On April 27th, Berenberg Bank economists stated in a report that high energy prices triggered by the Middle East conflict could keep UK inflation at around 3% in 2026, above the Bank of Englands 2% target. However, weaker wage growth in the UK should help mitigate the risk of high inflation. "While the war with Iran will keep inflation above target, the UKs inflation problem is unlikely to be more severe than in other countries."The ECBs survey on corporate financing channels indicates that companies report further tightening of bank lending rates and other lending conditions; corporate profits continue to deteriorate.On April 27th, UBS-Julius Baer analyst Magdalene Teo stated that the easing cycle in Asia has been put on hold as the Middle East conflict disrupts oil supplies and begins to show its effects on inflation and growth concerns. In her report, she noted that despite the weak yen, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week due to the uncertainty surrounding the war. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened its policy slightly earlier this month to address inflation in advance. Thailand faces the risk of slower growth as its tourism industry, a pillar of its economy, is impacted by rising travel costs. The Philippines may raise interest rates to maintain price stability, while the Indonesian central bank will likely keep rates unchanged to support the rupiah, but a rate hike cannot be ruled out if foreign exchange reserves decline significantly.

Plastic Consumption Is Projected to Nearly Double by 2050, According to Studies

Haiden Holmes

Feb 27, 2023 14:08

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According to research published on Monday, plastic consumption in G20 nations is on track to nearly double by the middle of the 21st century unless a comprehensive and legally binding global treaty to reduce consumption is drafted.


According to Back to Blue, a research group operated by the Economist Impact think-tank and the Nippon Foundation, existing initiatives to increase recycling or reduce single-use plastic consumption have "barely scratched the surface" and a more comprehensive global plan is required.


In Uruguay, the United Nations began negotiations on an agreement to combat plastic pollution in November, with the goal of drafting a legally binding treaty by the end of the following year. 175 countries have joined up for the negotiations.


Nonetheless, if negotiations fail, annual plastic production in G20 nations could reach 451 million tonnes by 2050 based on current development rates, according to Back to Blue - an increase of nearly 75 percent from 2019.


The research group stated, "There should be no illusions that the treaty negotiations will be anything but difficult and treacherous." "The likelihood of failure is high, both in terms of no treaty emerging and a treaty that is insufficient to reverse the plastic tide."


It called for a stricter ban on single-use plastic, as well as increased production taxes and mandatory programs to hold companies accountable for the entire lifecycle of their products, including recycling and disposal.


Back to Blue stated that the combined measures could limit annual consumption to 325 million tonnes by 2050, but that would still be a 25 percent increase from 2019 and the equivalent of 238 million garbage vehicles.


Brazil, the United States, Indonesia, and Turkey are among the G20 countries that have yet to introduce national prohibitions on single-use plastic products, according to the report.


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