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With a September Federal Reserve rate cut all but certain, options traders are widely betting on a stable stock market ahead of Thursdays CPI data. However, this bet could be risky if the data shows rising inflation. The markets rationale for a rate cut is straightforward: US job growth is stagnant and the economy needs stimulus. Fridays weak jobs data reinforced this expectation, prompting investors to fully price in a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed next week. The markets reaction has been muted: US stocks fell slightly on Friday, and the fear gauge edged up slightly, but remains well below the critical 20 level, where it has mostly remained since June. Looking ahead, options traders are betting on a roughly 0.7% two-way move in the S&P 500 following Thursdays CPI release, below the 1% average realized move over the past year. However, this trade ignores a key risk: what if inflation figures significantly exceed expectations? "Its a very delicate balance right now," said Eric Teal, chief investment officer of Comerica Wealth Management. "Any data thats very positive or very negative could change the market outlook."On September 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jeffrey Bessant stated that the United States and Europe are discussing a new round of sanctions and secondary tariffs against Russia, hoping that the "collapse" of the Russian economy will prompt Putin to engage in peace talks with Ukraine. "We are ready to increase pressure on Russia, but we need the cooperation of our European partners," Bessant said. He also stated that President Trump and Vice President Cyril Vance spoke with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Friday, and that von der Leyen subsequently discussed sanctions with Bessant.Israel Airports Authority: The first flight from Ramon Airport to Tel Aviv will take off soon.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: OPEC+s production increase plan is beneficial to the Russian economy.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: OPEC+ will make monthly production decisions based on market conditions.

Gold Prices Inch up But Anticipate A Weekly Loss; PCE Data Are Awaited

Skylar Williams

Feb 24, 2023 13:34

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Gold prices rose marginally on Friday, but were poised for a fourth consecutive week in the red due to mounting uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy, with markets awaiting a reading on the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge later in the day for additional direction.


As U.S. fourth-quarter GDP data was revised slightly lower, indicating that the economy had cooled more than anticipated under the burden of high interest rates, gold experienced some respite. The data increased the likelihood that the Fed will have less capacity to continue raising interest rates.


At 19:36 E.T., spot gold climbed 0.1% to $1,823.84 per ounce, while gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,835.15 per ounce. This week, both assets were expected to lose between 0.5% and 0.8%.


The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, is anticipated to confirm that price pressures remained elevated in January. Inflation control is the central bank's top priority, and the Fed has given few hints that it will halt its rate-hiking rampage. Given that rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as precious metals, this is unfavorable for gold.


This week, a number of Fed speakers advocated for additional interest rate hikes, with some even advocating for a quicker pace of hikes in the future months. The minutes of the Fed's February meeting revealed that the majority of officials supported an increase in interest rates.


However, markets continue to be dubious as to where interest rates will peak. Traders' dread of a higher-than-anticipated terminal rate has limited the metals' price appreciation.


Friday was a quiet day for other precious metals, with silver and platinum futures moving less than 0.1% in either direction. However, platinum was expected to outpace its competitors this week with a nearly 3% increase, ending a six-week losing streak.


Copper prices stabilized on Friday after plunging in the previous session in response to weak U.S. GDP data that prompted concerns about a slowdown in industrial activity.


Copper futures increased 0.1% to $4.0570 per pound following a 3.3% decline in the previous session. The losses also placed copper on track for a 1.3% weekly decline.


In recent weeks, copper prices have also been impacted by uncertainty regarding China's economic recovery, the world's largest copper importer.