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On cautious optimism and with RBA/Fed discussion in the focus, AUD/USD holds higher than 0.6800

Daniel Rogers

Jul 18, 2022 11:54

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The AUD/USD currency pair is trading higher for a second day in a row as bulls approach the 0.6800 level. On Monday during the Asian session, it increased 0.20 percent intraday to 0.6810. In order to maintain buyer optimism ahead of a busy week, the Aussie pair takes cues from the lower US dollar and moderately upbeat market tone.

 

Despite this, traders lower their hawkish predictions for the upcoming Fed move, which causes the US Dollar Index (DXY) to extend Friday's losses to 107.75, a loss of 0.22 percent intraday. However, given the very dismal US statistics and contradictory Fed comments, recent dovish Fed bets seem to have been decreased.

 

US retail sales for June increased 1.0 percent month over month, exceeding expectations of 0.8 percent and prior estimates of -0.1 percent (updated from -0.3 percent). Meanwhile, the flash estimate for the July Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan increased to 51.5 from 49.9 from expectations and 50.0 from prior data. The Consumer Expectations Index hit its lowest point since May 1980 at 47.3. While the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index increased from -2.0 and -1.2 to 11.1 in June, the US Industrial Production fell by 0.2 percent month over month.

 

The AUD/USD pair recovered in response to the mixed data as well as a Fedspeak revision away from earlier projections for a 75 basis point rate increase. Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, said on Friday that the 75 basis point rate increase in June was a "big shift" and that the Fed wants an orderly transition in policy. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's president, Mary Daly, said on Friday that the Fed's goal is to lower inflation without choking the economy. Furthermore, James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, seemed unconcerned when he told Reuters on Friday that a rate increase of either 100 basis points (bps) or 75 bps at the next meeting wouldn't make much of a difference.

 

Additionally, the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish forecasts, China's readiness for fresh stimulus, and the Fed's blackout period before to the FOMC meeting in late July all support the AUD/upside. USD's

 

Although US Treasury rates closed the week on a negative note, Wall Street ended the week on a good note. The 10-year US Treasury rates, according to the most recent data available, are down 1.1 basis points (bps) to 2.91 percent, although S&P 500 Futures remain firmer at 3,870.

 

Future AUD/USD traders may be interested in risk triggers despite a light domestic timetable. However, it will be important for pair traders to keep an eye on the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Minutes Statement and Guy Bullock's comments.


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