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RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusueras: Warsh delivered the right hawkish signals at the press conference and attempted to reinforce the Fed’s credibility in restoring price stability, while also enhancing his own credibility.U.S. stocks continued to decline after the Walsh press conference, with the S&P 500 falling 1%, its biggest drop since July 29, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.65%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.6%.On September 17th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh declined to answer questions at a press conference regarding his interactions with US President Trump. Trump has been calling for lower interest rates in recent months. Warsh stated, "I have no comment on my discussions with the president." White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Christopher Phelan said on Tuesday that raising interest rates would be a "mistake."On September 17th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated that he would not disclose details of future interest rate decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). He said, "I am not responsible for providing forward guidance. Our decision today (to raise interest rates) is a carefully considered, serious, and responsible one. We have been preparing for and thinking about this decision for the past 110 or 120 days." Warsh also stated that this decision was not market-driven. He said, "Our decision today is based on our assessment of the current situation, our judgment of the employment trend, and our assessment of the strength of the economy. Sometimes, the market tries to anticipate our decisions. I watch market prices to see what information the market is sending. But todays decision is our own."On September 17th, Warsh stated that while the Federal Reserve cannot prevent price shocks in commodities such as oil on its own, the central bank can use policy tools to prevent further spread of inflationary pressures. Warsh said, "We cannot influence the price of any single commodity, such as oil or groceries." However, he pointed out, "We can and will ensure that any changes in relative prices do not spread further, and do not have second- or third-order effects on the economy. Thats our responsibility, and thats what were doing." Warsh made these remarks as U.S. diesel prices hit a record high due to the Iran war.

As market confidence improves, the USD/CAD pair stabilizes near 1,3000, bringing attention to Canada's inflation

Alina Haynes

Jul 18, 2022 11:58

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The USD/CAD pair fluctuates within a constrained range of 1.3006-1.3023 during the Asian session. Despite a rise in market participants' risk appetite, the asset is doing poorly. Investors should be concerned that the USD/CAD pair has experienced only a little dip while the US dollar index (DXY) is falling sharply. This implies that the Canadian dollar is weaker as well and that the asset's auction performance was underwhelming.

 

The strengthening of the Canadian dollar may be related to higher inflation rate projections. The market forecast for the upcoming economic report on Wednesday is 8.8%, which is much higher than the forecast for the most recent release of 7.7%. The pace of inflation in the Canadian economy is surging uncontrollably. It mostly has an impact on household income.

 

In the meantime, as market mood has improved, the US dollar index (DXY) has dropped under Friday's low of 107.92. Investors believe that the United States has experienced its peak in pricing pressure. But according to James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, inflation might come as a pleasant surprise.

 

Due to growing economic worries, oil prices are plummeting precipitously on the energy market. The goal of major central banks is to bring about price stability in their respective economies. As a result, policy tightening is necessary to address the inflation problem. Given that the forecasts for oil demand have been significantly revised downward, this has a negative effect on market mood. Being the biggest oil supplier to the US, Canada has suffered as a result of falling oil prices, which has hurt the loonie bulls.


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