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On June 18th, Chaos Tiancheng Futures reported that the Federal Reserves June interest rate meeting caused significant market volatility. The overall meeting and statement clearly shifted towards a hawkish stance, while Warshs relatively neutral remarks exacerbated market fluctuations. Subsequently, US President Trump stated that the Fed would maintain interest rates unchanged, which was fine. (Regarding the possibility of a Fed rate hike) This could happen. After the meeting, market expectations for a rate hike rose, and the US dollar index surged, surpassing the 100 mark. Currently, for precious metals, although the meeting showed a hawkish bias and rate hike expectations rose, the market was relatively prepared and anticipated. The decline was completed in the short term, but this mornings news of the US-Iran memorandum led to a recovery of half of the decline, effectively ending short-term trading opportunities. Further developments still require observation of the driving forces, most importantly geopolitical tensions. Given the current increased market volatility, there are no clear trend conditions. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged but predicted a rate hike this year. A chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market gold and silver prices, converted between domestic and international markets.On June 18th, a research report from CICC stated that the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged at its June meeting, in line with market expectations. The biggest change at this meeting was the reform. The monetary policy statement was significantly simplified, and forward guidance was removed, aiming to reduce the Feds intervention in the market. More importantly, five working groups were established: communication, balance sheet, data, productivity and employment, and an inflation framework. This reshapes the policy framework from fundamental principles, laying the institutional groundwork for Warshs conservative and market-oriented policy approach. The balance sheet assessment was ranked second, indicating that balance sheet reduction remains a core inclination. Regarding policy this year, Warsh did not provide clear guidance, but the dot plot clearly turned hawkish: the average forecast predicts one rate hike this year, reflecting that with stable employment and high inflation, combating inflation has become the focus. We maintain our judgment that the Fed will neither raise nor lower interest rates this year, but note the increased risk of a rate hike next year. If the US economy continues to strengthen and achieve a full recovery driven by AI capital expenditure, the possibility of monetary tightening cannot be ruled out.According to The Information, Google DeepMind researcher Norm Shazel will be joining OpenAI.June 18th - According to NewsNation, Republican members of Congress have begun blaming Vice President Vance, accusing him of reaching a "bad" deal with Iran. One Republican congressman stated, "Conservatives in Congress are appalled that Vance reached such a terrible deal, erasing all of Trumps military victories. Trump had effectively won the war, and Vance lost it at the last minute through negotiations." Earlier today, President Trump joked, "If we reach a deal, the credit is mine; if we dont, blame Vance." Trump praised the agreement with Iran during his visit to France and signed a copy of the memorandum of understanding in Versailles. A source close to the White House responded to the congressmans comments, saying that the unnamed Republican congressman dared to be so audacious as to attempt to strip the president of his power in order to undermine and obstruct his peace agreement.

Before US consumer-centric data, USD/JPY declines from a 23-year high as yields go lower

Alina Haynes

Jul 15, 2022 11:36

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In addition to continuing Thursday's decline from a multi-year high into Friday's opening Asian session, USD/JPY takes offers to renew intraday bottom at 138.80. The current decrease in the yen pair may be attributed to market inertia, yield reductions, and a cautious outlook before the publication of significant US data.

 

While 2-year bond coupons decreased by 0.75 percent to 3.12 percent, 10-year US Treasury rates finished Thursday at 2.95 percent, up 0.95 percent from the previous day. As a result, the difference between the coupons of short-term and long-term bonds shrank from 23 basis points (bps) on Tuesday to 17 bps. The market's fears of a recession appear to have lately subsided due to the shrinking disparity between the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury rates, allowing the US dollar bulls to recover their breath. It's noteworthy that as of press time, the 10-year Treasury rate flashes 2.945 percent and the 2-year bond coupon fluctuates at 3.12 percent.

 

Additionally, the Fed's policymakers' efforts to stop discussions of a 100 basis point rate increase and confusing US data supported USD/JPY selling.

 

Among the prominent Fed speakers who made an effort to downplay the probability of higher interest rates were Christopher Waller, governor of the Federal Reserve, and James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Bullard of the Fed, however, noted that "up to this point, we've framed this conversation exclusively in terms of 50 vs 75." Reuters quotes Fed's Waller as saying that markets may have anticipated a 100 basis point rate increase in July too soon. It should be noted that the Federal Reserve will observe a blackout period before the July 28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting starting this weekend (FOMC).

 

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in the US climbed by 11.3 percent yearly in June, up from 10.9 percent in May, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. This outcome was higher than the 10.7% market expectation. In addition, compared to the previous week's total of 235,000 and the market's projection of 235,000, there were 244,000 first claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending July 9. The number of weekly claims for unemployment rose to its highest level in five months.

 

The market's cautious optimism is reflected in the intraday S&P 500 Futures' 0.13 percent advance to 3,800 in reaction to these wagers.

 

Notably, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen chastises Russia for its invasion of Ukraine at the opening of the G20 summit in Indonesia. The readiness of China to ease tensions with Australia seems to lift spirits.

 

Given this, USD/JPY traders should pay close attention to the risk catalysts for immediate direction ahead of US Retail Sales, which are anticipated to increase 0.8 percent MoM in June from -0.3 percent in May. These readings will be followed by the preliminary readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) for July, which are anticipated to decrease to 49.9 from 50.0 previously, as well as Fedspeak.


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