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On May 27th, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25%, but ANZ Bank stated that the RBNZ is "clearly very inclined to raise rates." The vote was a 3-3 tie, with RBNZ Governor Brehman casting the deciding vote. The released interest rate path chart shows that the OCR will rise faster than expected in February. ANZ Bank stated that the chart implies a very high probability of consecutive rate hikes at the RBNZs next three meetings. ANZ Banks Chief Economist for New Zealand, Sharon Zollner, said, "We still expect three rate hikes this year, in July, September, and October." She added, "We remain open to the possibility that the OCR needs to rise above 3%, but there are many variables to observe before that happens."On May 27, local time, a spokesperson for Irans Civil Aviation Organization stated that Tabriz International Airport, which was attacked in the recent conflict, has resumed operations after repairs by Iranian technicians and reopened on the 27th. The spokesperson noted that Tabriz International Airport is Irans third busiest international airport, currently serving nine international destinations.On May 27th, the Guangdong Provincial Strategic Emerging Industries Investment Guidance Fund was launched in Guangzhou, and XPeng Group was honored to be among the first batch of signed projects. Chairman and CEO He Xiaopeng emphasized at the ceremony that strategic emerging industries require "patient capital" capable of navigating economic cycles. XPeng will steadfastly pursue independent research and development, continuously increase investment in scientific research, and make every effort to overcome core technologies in physical AI. With the support of the fund, XPeng aims to enable the low-altitude economy to "take off," autonomous driving to "run," and embodied intelligence to "be used," transforming innovative technologies into real industrial power.SK Hynixs stock price rose by 14%.May 27th - Data released Wednesday by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) shows that European car sales rose for the third consecutive month in April, with consumers continuing to purchase large numbers of electric and hybrid vehicles. New car registrations in April increased by 7% year-on-year, reaching 1.15 million units. Sales in major markets such as Germany and the UK both saw growth, with electric vehicle deliveries surging by 38%. Due to the implementation of new subsidies, electric vehicle sales in Germany, Europes largest car market, jumped 41%. Hybrid vehicle sales increased in Europe in April, while sales of gasoline and diesel vehicles continued to decline, indicating that the European car market is continuing its transition to electrification. After a dismal 2025, Teslas performance in the European market continued to recover, with sales in Europe increasing by 47% year-on-year in April. Volkswagen, Stellantis, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW also recorded higher delivery volumes.

Before US Retail Sales, the US Dollar Index declines from a multi-year high due to cautious optimism

Daniel Rogers

Jul 15, 2022 11:33

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Bulls of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which hit a 19-year high earlier in the day at 108.65, find it difficult to gain momentum during Friday's Asian session.

 

The dollar index increased to a multi-year high against the six major currencies in reaction to recession fears and worries about the Federal Reserve's rapid rate hikes. However, the price decrease from the previous day was brought on by recent inconsistencies in Fedspeak and US statistics.

 

Among the most notable Fed speakers who sought to downplay the probability of an increase in interest rates were Christopher Waller, governor of the Federal Reserve, and James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Bullard of the Fed, however, noted that "up to this point, we've framed this conversation exclusively in terms of 50 vs 75." Reuters quotes Fed's Waller as saying that markets may have anticipated a 100 basis point rate increase in July too soon. It should be noted that the Federal Reserve will observe a blackout period before the July 28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting starting this weekend (FOMC).

 

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in the US increased to 11.3 percent on an annual basis in June, up from 10.9 percent in May, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. This outcome was higher than the 10.7% market expectation. In addition, compared to the previous week's total of 235,000 and the market's projection of 235,000, there were 244,000 first claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending July 9. The number of weekly claims for unemployment rose to its highest level in five months.

 

It should be recalled that the previous day, DXY bulls were under pressure due to the shrinking spread between the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury rates. While 2-year bond coupons decreased by 0.75 percent to 3.12 percent, 10-year US Treasury rates finished Thursday at 2.95 percent, up 0.95 percent from the previous day. As a result, the difference between the coupons of short-term and long-term bonds shrank from 23 basis points (bps) on Tuesday to 17 bps.

 

The Wall Street benchmark had a mixed performance as a result of these moves, and as of press time, S&P 500 Futures had also seen moderate increases.

 

It will be vital to follow US Retail Sales, which are predicted to grow 0.8 percent MoM in June from -0.3 percent in May, in addition to watching Fed speakers for new encouragement. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) preliminary readings for July, which are forecast to be 49.9 vs. 50.0 before, should therefore be watched for certain signs of future changes.


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