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On December 19th, according to Futures News, crude oil prices continued to rise slightly, and the news in the fuel oil market improved somewhat. However, the supply and demand of various products still differed, and refineries shipped at different paces. Market participants lacked confidence in future trading, and most purchases were small orders for immediate needs. It is expected that fuel oil trading will continue to be stable in the short term.On December 19th, Goldman Sachs predicted that the Bank of England will cut interest rates three times in 2026. Previously, the bank had predicted cuts in February, April, and July; it has now revised its forecast to March, June, and September. Goldman Sachs pointed out that slowing hiring, rising unemployment risks, and easing wage pressures are the main reasons supporting rate cuts. Although the market is currently pricing in a relatively moderate pace of rate cuts, if data confirms weakening economic activity and anchored inflation expectations, the Bank of Englands rate cuts could be more aggressive than investors anticipate. For the market, a deeper easing cycle could put pressure on the pound while supporting UK risk assets.SK Hynixs gains widened to 2.5% in early trading.The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported that UK car production fell 14.3% year-on-year in November, with 65,932 passenger and commercial vehicles produced.The UKs GfK consumer confidence index for December was -17, compared to a forecast of -18 and a previous reading of -19.

Near 1.3600, USD/CAD Meets Difficult Resistance Amid a Weak USD Index and Rising Crude Prices

Daniel Rogers

Mar 29, 2023 14:32

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Near 1.3600, the USD/CAD pair encountered resistance during the Asian session. As the US Dollar Index (DXY) appears vulnerable to further losses below 102.40, the Canadian dollar appears to have a sturdy downside bias. The USD Index has found support near 102.40, but a retracement is likely as risk appetite improves.

 

The USD Index is under intense pressure as a result of the decline in U.S. banking concerns. As reported by Reuters, US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy stated in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday that "at this time" there is no need for universal insurance on all bank deposits, reviving concerns of a banking crisis in the United States.

 

Tuesday's S&P500 futures remained predominantly constrained in response to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's remarks. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain a consistent tone when announcing its interest rate decision at its May monetary policy meeting, despite the optimistic market sentiment.

 

In the interim, demand for U.S. government bonds remained low due to investors' expectation that the nation will emerge from its banking crisis sooner. This led to a rise in 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.57 percent.

 

According to Bloomberg, the Canadian Dollar remained volatile on Tuesday after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's announcement that dividends received by financial institutions from holding domestic equities will be considered business income. This will generate billions in tax revenue from banks and insurance firms that receive dividends from Canadian corporations.

 

Due to a weakening US Dollar and expectations of additional sanctions against Russia, the price of oil has risen to close to $74.00 on the energy front. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) oil inventory data will be attentively monitored for additional guidance. As anticipated, the US EIA will report an increase of 0.187 million barrels in oil stocks for the week ending March 24.

 

Notably, Canada is the leading oil exporter to the United States, and rising crude prices would strengthen the Canadian Dollar further.