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July 2, Phillip Nova senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva wrote in a report that oil futures may trade in a narrower range this week as OPEC+ is widely expected to agree to increase production by another 411,000 barrels per day in August. OPEC+ supply is under the control of investors; however, prices seem to have digested the increase in production and are unlikely to catch the market off guard again in the short term. However, a weaker dollar could prolong any upward momentum.July 2, Goldman Sachs said that if OPEC+ decides to increase production on Sunday, the market is not expected to react much, because the general market expectations have shifted to this result. Goldman Sachs expects the August production increase to be the last, as the large influx of shale oil from non-OPEC countries affects the supply and demand balance, but the risk tends to be a further increase in OPEC+ quotas after August.Canada remains committed to removing all Trump tariffs in its trade deal with the United States, the country’s ambassador to Washington said.Goldman Sachs: If OPEC+ decides to increase production on Sunday, the market is not expected to react much as the general market expectations have shifted to this outcome.July 2, Kenanga economists said in a report that Indonesias recent export performance is expected to remain resilient, partly due to early shipments ahead of possible U.S. tariffs and a lower base than last year. Exports have grown 7.3% so far this year, reflecting strong momentum driven by strong U.S. demand. They expect Indonesias export growth rate to rise to 6.1% in 2025 from 2.3% in 2024, despite continued uncertainty in global trade.

As Australian Retail Sales Continue To Underperform Expectations, AUD/JPY Corrects To Near 87.20

Alina Haynes

Mar 28, 2023 15:36

AUD:JPY.png 

 

The AUD/JPY pair has declined to near 87.20 as a consequence of weaker Retail Sales data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The increase in economic data was 0.2%, which was less than the consensus estimate of 0.4% and the previous release of 1.9%. A weaker-than-anticipated retail demand suggests that households are unable to compensate for the impact of inflated products with their present purchasing power.

 

The headline may suggest weakening retail demand, but the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which is working to restrict elevated inflation, is ecstatic.

 

This week, the Australian Dollar is expected to remain in focus prior to the release of the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Feb) data on Wednesday. According to projections, the inflation rate will decline from 7.4% to 7.1%.

 

There is evidence that Australia's inflation rate has begun to decline, as stated by the RBA's policymakers. As the present monetary policy is already sufficiently restrictive to control persistent inflation, the RBA could conclude its policy-tightening process at the April monetary meeting.

 

In addition, the National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) Manufacturing PMI for China will be the most influential factor for the Australian Dollar. China's economy is now focused on the road to economic recovery, following the elimination of pandemic controls. Consequently, a respectable performance is anticipated within the manufacturing industry. Australia is China's most important trading partner, and an increase in the Chinese PMI will also boost the Australian Dollar.

 

Haruhiko Kuroda, the former governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), will continue to be the center of attention in Tokyo. BoJ Kuroda may reaffirm the continuation of ultra-loose monetary policy to stimulate earnings and the economy's overall demand.


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