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US-Iran-US Conflict: ① Iran 1. Iranian Ambassador to Russia: The US is not taking the US-Iran negotiations seriously. 2. US media: Mojtaba issues orders via letters; decision-making power may have been delegated to the Revolutionary Guard. 3. Despite the US blockade, Iran continues to load oil onto tankers. 4. Iranian Vice President says Iran will retaliate severely against attacks on Iranian energy facilities. 5. Iranian parliamentary officials: Foreign Ministers visit to Pakistan will not involve nuclear talks. 6. Iranian Ministry of Defense: Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz. 7. Pakistani sources: The plane carrying Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi arrived at the Nur-Khan Air Base near Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. 8. Iranian media: Araqchi has no scheduled meetings with the US, but will use Pakistan as an intermediary to convey messages to the US. ② US 1. Given the risk of the current US-Iran ceasefire breaking down, the US military is studying new operational plans, including striking Iranian military forces in the Strait of Hormuz area. 2. US Central Command: The blockade against ships entering and leaving Iranian ports continues. To date, the US military has forced 34 ships to change course. 3. US Defense Secretary: Another aircraft carrier joins the blockade of Iran. 4. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Kane: Iran attacked five merchant ships and seized two of them. 5. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Kane: The US will continue to intercept Iranian ships in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. 6. The White House extends shipping waivers to August to alleviate oil shortages. 7. White House: Witkov and Kushner will travel to Pakistan on Saturday morning; Vance will remain in the country on standby. 8. Two sources say the US envoys meeting with Araghchi may take place on Monday, before which Kushner and Witkov will hold separate bilateral talks with Pakistani mediators. ③ Israel 1. Reportedly, Israel conducted airstrikes in Deir Amez, southern Lebanon. 2. Israeli Defense Minister says: Waiting for the US to agree to "completely eliminate the Iranian regime." 3. Israeli Defense Minister reportedly has identified targets for strikes against Iran should the conflict resume. 4. Israel launched airstrikes on several locations in southern Lebanon, killing two people. ⑤ Strait of Hormuz 1. Iran granted transit fee exemptions to Russia and other "friendly" countries in the Strait of Hormuz. 2. US media: Sources say Iran laid more mines in the Strait of Hormuz this week. 3. Iran says hundreds of ships are waiting for passage permits in the Strait of Hormuz. 4. Malaysia is discussing with Iran allowing two oil tankers to pass through Iranian waters. 5. US Defense Secretary acknowledges significant restrictions on shipping in the Strait and warns Iran that laying mines would violate the ceasefire agreement. ⑥ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. Iranian parliamentary official Ayman Shamsayei: Ghalibaf has not resigned and is still diligently fulfilling his duties. Related rumors are being spread for the purpose of disrupting public opinion. 2. According to Irans Tasnim News Agency: Iran and the United States will not hold talks during Foreign Minister Araghchis visit. 3. US media: There are no indications that US Vice President Vance is about to depart for Pakistan. 4. According to Middle Eastern media Al Asharq: A US delegation will arrive in Islamabad within 36 hours to prepare for the second round of talks. 5. The Iranian Foreign Minister will visit Pakistan and two other countries; there are no indications that a second round of US-Iran talks will be held. 6. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi: The purpose of this trip is to coordinate with partners. 7. The US Defense Secretary said Iran still has a chance to reach an agreement, but "it is impossible to obtain nuclear weapons." 8. According to Irans Tasnim News Agency: Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi will travel abroad as the head of a diplomatic delegation. 9. According to CNN: US special envoys Witkov and Kushner will participate in talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi. 10. Pakistan: The trilateral talks will be assessed after Pakistan meets with Araqchi. ④ Other situations: 1. Kuwait International Airport airspace has reopened. 2. Saudi Arabias alternative oil export routes have not yet been able to maintain full capacity. 3. Spokesperson for the British Prime Minister: British Prime Minister Starmer will not be pressured on the issue of war with Iran. 4. The first shipments from the US following the conflict with Iran may arrive in Japan on Sunday. 5. Israeli airstrikes in several parts of the Gaza Strip have killed 12 people.On April 25, Ibrahim Aziz, chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Islamic Parliament, posted on social media early that morning that Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchis visit to Pakistan was solely for discussing bilateral relations and he was not authorized to handle any matters related to the nuclear negotiations. Aziz stated that the nuclear issue remains one of Irans red lines.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman: There are no plans for a meeting between Iran and the United States at the moment, and Irans observations will be relayed to Pakistan.According to the Associated Press, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter ruled out the possibility of extending the oil waivers for Iran and Russia.Market news: A U.S. judge dismissed fraud allegations brought by Elon Musk against OpenAI and its founder Altman, and plans to continue the trial on other allegations against Musk.

Near 0.9140, USD/CHF meets resistance as the USD Index resumes its decline

Alina Haynes

Mar 31, 2023 11:53

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Near 0.9140 during the Asian session, the USD/CHF pair confronted formidable resistance. It is anticipated that the Swiss Franc will decline to a new two-week low after falling below 0.9120. Following a brief retracement near 102.25, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has declined, accelerating the acceleration of adverse speculations on the major currency. The USD Index is anticipated to decline below its immediate support of 102.0.

 

As investors anticipate that Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell will not raise interest rates at the May monetary policy meeting in 2023, USD Index adverse speculations are increasing. Undoubtedly, fears of a U.S. banking system crisis have diminished significantly, but U.S. institutions will continue to maintain exceedingly stringent credit conditions to prevent additional casualties. Moreover, the impact of US financial anxiety has not yet been realized.

 

More than 52% of forecasts from CME Fedwatch favor the Fed maintaining its present monetary policy stance at its May meeting.

 

Meanwhile, S&P500 futures carry optimism from Thursday forward. Futures on the S&P 500 index have extended their gains during the Asian session, indicating an increase in market participants' risk appetite. In the absence of clarity regarding the future of monetary policy, there is a decline in the demand for U.S. government bonds.

 

The issuance of Real Retail Sales (Feb) data for the Swiss Franc is anticipated by investors. The annual retail sales data is projected to increase by 1.9%, compared to a decrease of 2.2%, which would strengthen the sustainability of inflationary pressures. Moreover, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is committed to minimizing inflation through future rate hikes.