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February 8th - European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Giuseppe Cipolone stated that the ECB will assess the impact of the recent euros appreciation on consumer price growth in its quarterly forecasts to be released in March; however, the euros recent volatility has been relatively limited. According to a record published on the ECBs website on Sunday, the Italian policymaker said that officials consider the exchange rate as one of the factors "forecasting inflation dynamics." "We will observe how the new forecasts unfold and what impact they will have." At the same time, Cipolone emphasized that the ECB has not set a specific target for the euro, and that the euro exchange rate has been fluctuating around $1.17 to $1.18 for nearly a year. "After the volatility a few weeks ago, the euro exchange rate has now fallen back to the levels of the previous months," Cipolone said.1. Monday: ① Data: Japans December trade balance, Switzerlands January consumer confidence index, Eurozones February Sentix investor confidence index; ② Events: ASEAN Finance Ministers and Central Bank Deputy Working Group meeting held until February 13. 2. Tuesday: ① Data: US January New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, January NFIB small business confidence index, December retail sales month-on-month, Q4 labor cost index quarter-on-quarter, December import price index month-on-month, November business inventories month-on-month; Frances Q4 ILO unemployment rate; Chinas January M2 money supply year-on-year rate (pending); ② Events: ECB President Lagarde participates in discussions. Fed Governors Waller and Bostic deliver speeches. New York Fed releases its Q4 2025 household debt and credit report. ③ Earnings Report: Hong Kong Stock – SMIC (00981.HK). US Stocks – BP (BP.N), Spotify (SPOT.N), Coca-Cola (KO.N), AstraZeneca (AZN.O), Robinhood (HOOD.O), Ford Motor (FN). 3. Wednesday: ① Data: US API crude oil inventories for the week ending February 6th, EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending February 6th; US January unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings month-on-month, final reading of the 2025 non-farm payrolls baseline change; China January CPI year-on-year rate; ② Events: EIA releases monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. Feds Hamak and Logan deliver speeches. OPEC releases monthly oil market report. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet with Trump on Wednesday to discuss the Iran issue. ③ Holiday: Tokyo Stock Exchange closed. ④ Earnings Reports: Hong Kong Stocks – NetEase (09999.HK), Cloud Music (09899.HK). US Stocks – T-Mobile US (TMUS.O), NetEase Youdao (DAO.N), Cisco (CSCO.O), McDonalds (MCD.N). 4. Thursday: ① Data: US 10-year Treasury auction to February 11; UK Q4 GDP annualized rate (preliminary), December three-month GDP monthly rate, December manufacturing output monthly rate, December seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, December industrial production monthly rate; US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 7, January existing home sales (annualized), EIA natural gas storage for the week ending February 6; ② Events: Bank of Canada releases monetary policy meeting minutes. IEA releases monthly oil market report. ECB Executive Board members Schnabel, Cipollone, Chief Economist Lane, and Governing Council member Stournaras deliver speeches. ③ Holiday: No trading on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. ④ Earnings Reports: Hong Kong Stocks – Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK), Lenovo Group (00992.HK). US Stocks – Rivian (RIVN.O), Coinbase (COIN.O), Applied Materials (AMAT.O), Airbnb (ABNB.O); 5. Friday: ① Data: Swiss January CPI month-on-month rate; Eurozone Q4 GDP annual rate revision, Eurozone Q4 seasonally adjusted employment quarter-on-quarter final value, Eurozone December seasonally adjusted trade balance; US January unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate, unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate, seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate; ② Events: Federal Reserve Chairman Logan and Federal Reserve Governor Milan attend events. Chinas National Bureau of Statistics releases monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. The Central Bank of Russia announces its interest rate decision. Bank of Japan policy board member Naoki Tamura delivers a speech. ③ Holidays: No market trading on the Taiwan Stock Exchange, no night trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange. ④ Earnings Report: US Stocks – Moderna (MRNA.O) 6. Saturday: ① Data: Total number of US oil rigs for the week ending February 13; CFTC releases weekly positioning report. Market news: The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre downgraded the magnitude of the earthquake in Cuba to 5.5, with a focal depth of 15 kilometers.February 8th - Despite the silver price plunge that has almost wiped out its astonishing gains at the beginning of the year, retail investors still poured nearly $500 million into the silver market over the past week. According to data analysis from Vanda Research, retail investors poured $430 million into the largest silver ETF, SLV, in the six trading days ending Thursday, including over $100 million on January 30th, when silver prices fell 27%, marking the largest single-day drop in history. StoneX analyst Ronna OConnell stated, "People are drawn to the allure of silver." She added that silvers appeal was further amplified by its "massive sell-off," with some investors seeing it as a buying opportunity at lower prices.The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre reports a 5.9-magnitude earthquake in the Cuba region.

GBP/USD Attempts To Protect 1.2300 As Market Sentiment Remains Tenuous Due To Rising Crude Prices

Daniel Rogers

Apr 03, 2023 14:15

During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is attempting to defend its round-number support level at 1.2300. As a consequence of OPEC+'s announcement of additional oil production cuts, investors in the early Tokyo session discounted the impact of higher oil prices on the Cable. Concerns about global inflationary pressures have been reignited by the crude price increase. Therefore, it may be necessary for central banks to maintain high interest rates for an extended period of time.

 

Following a series of favorable sessions last week, S&P500 futures reported significant losses during the Asian session, as higher oil prices will increase input costs for companies that rely on oil for transportation and manufacturing. The sentiment on the market has deteriorated, and risk-perceived assets have been punished.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is exhibiting a minor correction after reaching a new weekly peak of 102.95. The impact of the deceleration in the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data on the USD Index was mitigated by rekindled inflation expectations in the United States due to higher crude prices.

 

The US PCE Price Index increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis, which was below both the consensus estimate of 0.4% and the prior reading of 0.5%. In addition, the annual rate of US PCE inflation decreased to 4.6% from 4.7% in the previous report and the consensus estimate.

 

If inflation spikes due to elevated crude prices, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may contemplate additional rate hikes in May.

 

Increasing inflationary pressures on the front of the British Pound are causing the Bank of England more trouble. (BoE). As food prices continue to rise, retail price inflation has increased in the United Kingdom. Moreover, labor shortages continue to influence inflation expectations. However, BoE policymakers are optimistic that the rate of inflation in the United Kingdom will soon begin to fall sharply.