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On October 4th, the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) announced plans to strengthen safety oversight of special equipment related to tourism and high-risk special equipment, and enhance risk monitoring and emergency response. Focusing on crowded areas such as scenic spots, transportation hubs, commercial complexes, and amusement parks, the SAMR will strengthen supervision and inspection of frequently used tourism-related special equipment, including passenger ropeways, large amusement facilities, off-highway tourist vehicles, and elevators in public gathering places. Users will be urged to conduct comprehensive self-inspections to prevent unlicensed operation, faulty operation, or overloaded operation.On October 4th, Tomohisa Ishikawa, chief economist at the Japan Research Institute, stated that the key to Sanae Takaichis proposed "responsible expansionary fiscal policy" lies in whether it can simultaneously achieve the dual goals of fiscal soundness and economic growth. We expect it to prioritize fiscal reconstruction over previous policies. While she did not rule out the issuance of deficit-financing bonds as an option, the continuation of Abenomics requires vigilance against the risks of excessive fiscal expansion. Furthermore, the Bank of Japans interest rate hikes have indeed become more difficult. Ultimately, if "responsible expansionary fiscal policy" ensures that funds are precisely injected into high-growth sectors, rather than simply distributing them, the stock market will benefit and the yen will not weaken excessively.Palestinian Islamic Jihad: Hamas response to Trumps Gaza plan reflects a "resistance stance."On October 4th, Naoya Hasegawa, head of bond strategy at Okada Securities, stated that the likelihood of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike later this month has diminished. The market will initially react to the results of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election by buying medium-term bonds and selling ultra-long bonds, leading to a steepening of the yield curve. Previously, the market expected a BoJ rate hike to 0.75% in October to be over 60%, but this probability is expected to fall below 50% next week. The recent rise in market expectations for a BoJ rate hike stems from expectations of Shinjiro Koizumis election and hawkish signals from BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi.On October 4th, Yuka Hayashi, Vice President of the Asia Group, stated that Sanae Takaichi is a highly experienced politician. Her experience working in the United States and her long-time observation of US-Japan relations are her strengths. She expressed confidence in building a strong personal relationship with President Trump because her policies, emphasizing "Japan First," resonate with his "America First" approach. She believes the two sides share common ground in this regard. This is a very challenging time for the LDP, so I believe she will likely focus on party unity and be very careful to avoid taking an overly conservative and hardline stance on foreign policy.

GBP/USD Attempts To Protect 1.2300 As Market Sentiment Remains Tenuous Due To Rising Crude Prices

Daniel Rogers

Apr 03, 2023 14:15

During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is attempting to defend its round-number support level at 1.2300. As a consequence of OPEC+'s announcement of additional oil production cuts, investors in the early Tokyo session discounted the impact of higher oil prices on the Cable. Concerns about global inflationary pressures have been reignited by the crude price increase. Therefore, it may be necessary for central banks to maintain high interest rates for an extended period of time.

 

Following a series of favorable sessions last week, S&P500 futures reported significant losses during the Asian session, as higher oil prices will increase input costs for companies that rely on oil for transportation and manufacturing. The sentiment on the market has deteriorated, and risk-perceived assets have been punished.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is exhibiting a minor correction after reaching a new weekly peak of 102.95. The impact of the deceleration in the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data on the USD Index was mitigated by rekindled inflation expectations in the United States due to higher crude prices.

 

The US PCE Price Index increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis, which was below both the consensus estimate of 0.4% and the prior reading of 0.5%. In addition, the annual rate of US PCE inflation decreased to 4.6% from 4.7% in the previous report and the consensus estimate.

 

If inflation spikes due to elevated crude prices, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may contemplate additional rate hikes in May.

 

Increasing inflationary pressures on the front of the British Pound are causing the Bank of England more trouble. (BoE). As food prices continue to rise, retail price inflation has increased in the United Kingdom. Moreover, labor shortages continue to influence inflation expectations. However, BoE policymakers are optimistic that the rate of inflation in the United Kingdom will soon begin to fall sharply.