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Natural Gas Price Futures (NG) Technical Analysis - Strengthens Above $8.085, Fails Below $7.786

Alina Haynes

May 16, 2022 11:10

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On Friday, U.S. natural gas futures settled lower due to projections of milder temperatures and reduced demand over the next two weeks.

 

A decrease of 3 percent in European gas futures also weighed on prices. As a result of sanctions and the closure of a pipeline in Ukraine, Russia's exports have decreased, which explains Europe's weakness.

 

Futures contracts for natural gas in July settled on Friday at $7.765, down $0.070, or 0.89 percent. The United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) closed the day at $26.27, down $0.21, or -0.79%.

 

In yet another unexpected turn of events, U.S. prices plummeted despite the fact that Texas is preparing for a heat wave that will increase demand for electricity to run air conditioners early the following week.

Technical Analysis of Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is to the downside. Last week, sellers broke a pair of major bottoms at $6.919 and $6.557, reversing the trend.

 

A transaction above $6.521 will indicate a continuation of the downturn. A rise above $9.052 will result in a transition to an upward trend.

 

The range for the next month is $9.052 to $6.521. Its retracement zone between $7.786 and $8.085 halted Friday's rebound at $8.022.

 

The primary range is $3.515-2.052 The important support zone is between $6.283 and $5.630, which is the retracement zone.

Technical Forecast

The trajectory of the July natural gas futures market will be dictated by traders' reactions to $7.786 at the start of trading on Monday.

Positive Scenario 

A prolonged advance above $7.786 will show buyer presence. The initial upside objective is a short-term Fibonacci level located at $8.085. This is a potential trigger for an acceleration to the upside, with $9.052 being the probable next upside objective.

Bearish Prediction

A persistent move below $7.786 will indicate the existence of sellers. If this move develops sufficient momentum to the downside, then watch for the selling to extend to a minor pivot at $7.272.

 

Be on the lookout for a technical rebound on the initial test of $7.272 as countertrend buyers attempt to construct a potentially bullish secondary higher bottom. If this level fails as support, selling might extend to the major support level at $6.521, followed by the retracement zone target of $6.283 to $5.630.


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