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On April 15th, Futures News reported that Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures closed lower on Tuesday, with the benchmark contract down 0.4%, mainly reflecting weaker international crude oil prices and the record-breaking pace of US soybean planting for this time of year. US President Trump stated that negotiations with Iran might resume later this week. This led to a significant drop in international crude oil futures, with Brent crude futures falling 4.6%. The plunge in crude oil futures put pressure on the soybean and soybean product markets. The US Department of Agricultures weekly crop progress report released Monday showed that as of April 12th, soybean planting was 6% complete, 4 percentage points higher than the five-year average, setting a record for the fastest pace for this time of year. Analysts pointed out that the rapid progress of soybean planting has strengthened market expectations of ample new soybean supply, putting additional pressure on soybean prices. Furthermore, South America also brought bearish news. Brazils National Supply Company (Conab) released its latest forecast, raising its 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production estimate from 177.85 million tons last month to a record 179.15 million tons. Soybean exports were also revised upward by about 1 million tons to 115.4 million tons.1. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.66% to 48,535.99 points, the S&P 500 rose 1.18% to 6,967.38 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.96% to 23,639.08 points, marking its tenth consecutive day of gains. Amazon and Nvidia led the gains, rising nearly 4%. The Wind U.S. Tech Big Seven Index rose 2.83%, Facebook rose more than 4%, and Google rose more than 3%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 2.35%, iQiyi rose more than 11%, and JD.com rose nearly 8%. 2. European stock indices all closed higher. The German DAX rose 1.27% to 24,044.22 points, the French CAC40 rose 1.12% to 8,327.86 points, and the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.25% to 10,609.06 points. Although the US and Iran did not reach a final agreement, the ceasefire proposal significantly eased market concerns about a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and reduced the risk of disruptions to European energy supplies. 3. The WTI crude oil futures contract closed down 7.08% at $92.07 per barrel; the Brent crude oil futures contract fell 4.05% to $95.34 per barrel. 4. International precious metals futures generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 2.04% to $4,864.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 5.23% to $79.62 per ounce.Japans Reuters Tankan non-manufacturing business sentiment index for April was 31, down from 25 in the previous month.Japans Reuters Tankan Manufacturing Sentiment Index for April was 7, down from 18 in April.April 15th - Optimistic expectations of renewed US-Iran peace talks have depressed oil prices, causing the S&P 500 to rebound sharply and approach its all-time high. This is expected to boost Asian stock markets at the open. Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick stated, "The key is not whether the talks have made substantial progress, but whether we can reasonably expect progress. Emotions are often more powerful than reality." Strategist Michael Ball analyzed that the S&P 500s rise stems from the markets belief that a war with Iran will not cause a full-blown economic shock. With the ceasefire agreement maintained, Saudi Arabias east-west oil pipeline resuming operation, and Iran considering suspending shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to advance negotiations, every headline of diplomatic efforts has given traders a sense of reduced tail risk.

Natural Gas Price Futures (NG) Technical Analysis - Strengthens Above $8.085, Fails Below $7.786

Alina Haynes

May 16, 2022 11:10

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On Friday, U.S. natural gas futures settled lower due to projections of milder temperatures and reduced demand over the next two weeks.

 

A decrease of 3 percent in European gas futures also weighed on prices. As a result of sanctions and the closure of a pipeline in Ukraine, Russia's exports have decreased, which explains Europe's weakness.

 

Futures contracts for natural gas in July settled on Friday at $7.765, down $0.070, or 0.89 percent. The United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) closed the day at $26.27, down $0.21, or -0.79%.

 

In yet another unexpected turn of events, U.S. prices plummeted despite the fact that Texas is preparing for a heat wave that will increase demand for electricity to run air conditioners early the following week.

Technical Analysis of Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is to the downside. Last week, sellers broke a pair of major bottoms at $6.919 and $6.557, reversing the trend.

 

A transaction above $6.521 will indicate a continuation of the downturn. A rise above $9.052 will result in a transition to an upward trend.

 

The range for the next month is $9.052 to $6.521. Its retracement zone between $7.786 and $8.085 halted Friday's rebound at $8.022.

 

The primary range is $3.515-2.052 The important support zone is between $6.283 and $5.630, which is the retracement zone.

Technical Forecast

The trajectory of the July natural gas futures market will be dictated by traders' reactions to $7.786 at the start of trading on Monday.

Positive Scenario 

A prolonged advance above $7.786 will show buyer presence. The initial upside objective is a short-term Fibonacci level located at $8.085. This is a potential trigger for an acceleration to the upside, with $9.052 being the probable next upside objective.

Bearish Prediction

A persistent move below $7.786 will indicate the existence of sellers. If this move develops sufficient momentum to the downside, then watch for the selling to extend to a minor pivot at $7.272.

 

Be on the lookout for a technical rebound on the initial test of $7.272 as countertrend buyers attempt to construct a potentially bullish secondary higher bottom. If this level fails as support, selling might extend to the major support level at $6.521, followed by the retracement zone target of $6.283 to $5.630.