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Nasdaq futures rose more than 1%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%, and Dow futures rose 0.3%.July 30 – The Japanese government lowered its economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year on Thursday, citing rising oil prices linked to Middle East tensions as squeezing household spending and corporate profits. In its interim estimate released by the Cabinet Office, the government projects inflation-adjusted GDP growth of 0.9% for the fiscal year ending March 2027, down from the 1.3% growth forecast in January. However, thanks to strong capital spending and private consumption, growth is expected to accelerate to 1.1% in the next fiscal year. The weaker economic outlook for the current fiscal year highlights the pressure that rising energy costs are putting on Japans economy, which is heavily reliant on imported fuels. Under the forecast, Japan now expects private consumption to grow by 0.9% in fiscal year 2026, down from the 1.3% growth forecast in January; while capital spending is projected to grow by 2.3%, down from the previously forecast 2.8%.The death toll from the earthquake in Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, has risen to 17.The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, and spot gold and silver fluctuated widely. A chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market prices of precious metals in both domestic and international markets.On July 30th, Samsung Electronics semiconductor division reported a more than 250-fold increase in profits, driven by the lucrative reliance on memory in the field of artificial intelligence. The divisions second-quarter operating profit reached 89.2 trillion won (approximately $62 billion), exceeding analysts average expectation of 79.3 trillion won. The groups overall net profit was 71.3 trillion won, also surpassing market expectations. The profitability of the worlds largest memory chip manufacturer is under close scrutiny, as investors seek evidence to justify the massive investments and valuations driven by the AI boom. Global semiconductor stocks have soared to record highs this year, but also face increasingly fierce competition and concerns about overcapacity. Investors are increasingly questioning the commercial viability of the massive investments pouring into the industry.

Fundamental Gold Prediction: The US Dollar Weighs on Gold. Will U.S. Retail Sales Change Direction?

Daniel Rogers

May 16, 2022 11:15

Gold prices declined further last week as traders considered the likelihood of an economic recession in light of the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance. This was supported by a number of inflation reports from the United States. The consumer price index (CPI) for April came in at 8.3 percent year-over-year, exceeding analysts' projections of 8.1 percent year-over-year. The producer price index (PPI) for the same period shows that factory-gate prices have risen by 11.0 percent year-over-year.

 

This batch of inflation data contributed to the dollar's appreciation against the majority of its major rivals. A stronger Dollar often works against the price of bullion. Due mostly to Finland's announcement that it plans to strongly pursue NATO membership, the Euro depreciated. This drew a strong response from Russia, which vowed to respond, so reinforcing the risk-averse sentiment that has been permeating the Eurozone.

 

During the upcoming week, traders will closely monitor numerous high-profile data releases that may affect XAU prices. The US retail sales report for April may have the most impact on market mood. According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts expect April retail sales to increase by 0.7% month-over-month. A stronger-than-expected figure may alleviate some concerns about an impending economic recession. As the US Dollar has been operating as a safe haven for traders, this would likely serve to weaken the currency and may allow gold to climb by reducing risk aversion.

Gold versus US Dollar Chart Weekly

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