Fundamental Gold Prediction: The US Dollar Weighs on Gold. Will U.S. Retail Sales Change Direction?

Gold prices declined further last week as traders considered the likelihood of an economic recession in light of the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance. This was supported by a number of inflation reports from the United States. The consumer price index (CPI) for April came in at 8.3 percent year-over-year, exceeding analysts' projections of 8.1 percent year-over-year. The producer price index (PPI) for the same period shows that factory-gate prices have risen by 11.0 percent year-over-year.

This batch of inflation data contributed to the dollar's appreciation against the majority of its major rivals. A stronger Dollar often works against the price of bullion. Due mostly to Finland's announcement that it plans to strongly pursue NATO membership, the Euro depreciated. This drew a strong response from Russia, which vowed to respond, so reinforcing the risk-averse sentiment that has been permeating the Eurozone.

During the upcoming week, traders will closely monitor numerous high-profile data releases that may affect XAU prices. The US retail sales report for April may have the most impact on market mood. According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts expect April retail sales to increase by 0.7% month-over-month. A stronger-than-expected figure may alleviate some concerns about an impending economic recession. As the US Dollar has been operating as a safe haven for traders, this would likely serve to weaken the currency and may allow gold to climb by reducing risk aversion.

Gold versus US Dollar Chart Weekly