EUR/USD 1.15870
0.166%
Gold 4395.82
0.451%
Oil 81.305
-0.221%
USD/JPY 159.009
-0.218%
GBP/USD 1.35541
0.146%
GBP/JPY 215.527
-0.072%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
August 17th - Japanese automakers are facing a double whammy from the impact of the Iran war and the potential for a stronger yen. Toyota, Honda, and Nissan have recently benefited from the historically weak yen, with Toyota and Honda raising their full-year earnings forecasts and Nissan achieving its first profit in nearly two years. However, this positive effect may reverse as the yen strengthens. Vincent Sun, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, stated that a stronger yen will force automakers to choose between raising prices overseas and sacrificing profits. The former could lead to a decline in market share, while the latter would compress the yen value of overseas profits. Bernstein predicts that for every 1% appreciation of the yen, Japanese automakers operating profits will typically be affected by about 2%, with some companies potentially experiencing an impact of up to 4%. Analysts also believe that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could drive up the costs of key raw materials such as naphtha, resins, aluminum, copper, steel, and semiconductors, and increase shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, further squeezing automakers profit margins.Japans 20-year yield rose 6.5 basis points to 3.815%.On August 17th, the Foshan Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued a notice regarding adjustments to the minimum contribution level for housing provident funds in Foshan. The notice clarifies that starting September 1, 2026, the minimum contribution level for housing provident funds in Foshan will be adjusted. Specifically, the minimum contribution base will be set at the minimum wage standard for employed workers in Foshan, which is 2300 yuan. The minimum monthly contribution for employed workers will be 115 yuan for both the individual and employer contributions, totaling 230 yuan. The minimum monthly contribution for self-employed individuals will also be 230 yuan.August 17th - The upcoming New Zealand general election in November may complicate the Reserve Bank of New Zealands (RBNZ) monetary policy tightening, but ANZ senior strategist David Croy believes the RBNZ is still very likely to raise interest rates in October. The RBNZ has clearly stated its intention to return monetary policy to a neutral level. ANZ estimates the neutral interest rate to be around 3% or slightly above 3%, while the current policy rate is 2.50%. Croy stated that with policy remaining stimulative and inflation above target, there is no reason for the RBNZ to pause rate hikes. He believes the current situation is that the RBNZ needs to find a reason not to raise rates in October.On August 17, Belgorod Oblasts acting governor, Shuvaev, posted on social media that a village in the Valuisky district of the oblast was attacked by Ukrainian forces, resulting in 6 deaths and 4 injuries.

Stock Bulls Remain Optimistic As Manufacturing Inflation Slows, According to Data

Daniel Rogers

May 16, 2022 11:04

 截屏2022-05-16 上午10.21.15.png

 

As data indicates a deceleration in manufacturing inflation, stock market bulls remain exceedingly cautious but are slightly more bullish. The Producer Price Index increased by 11 percent year-over-year in April, which was higher than anticipated but a significant decrease from March's 11.5 percent increase. As producer prices lead consumer prices, the report is generally positive, although markets and the Fed will need to observe a few more months of decreases before pronouncing that inflation is actually moderating.

Inflation

Economists also caution that products inflation may be declining because consumer demand is shifting away from items and toward services, suggesting that high prices may be migrating from one sector of the economy to another. The most recent data indicates that prices for services are increasing at the quickest rate in 30 years, with airfare leading the way. Even if inflation has reached its top, the question is how long it will remain elevated.

 

Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell cautioned Monday that the central bank cannot guarantee a "smooth landing" for the economy, citing the tight labor market and continued supply chain disruptions. Powell also emphasized that other "big events," including as Russia's war in Ukraine, are currently playing significant roles that are outside the Fed's control. Powell made the remarks after receiving Senate confirmation for a second four-year term.

 

The target inflation rate of the central bank is still "flexible +2 percent," but a number of officials have hinted that the new norm may be in the range of +2.5 percent to +3 percent. The Core PCE Prices Index, which stood at +5.2 percent in March, is one of the primary (but not the only) indicators used by the Fed to assess the rate of inflation. The April reading is expected to be released on May 27, a couple weeks before the Fed's next meeting on June 14-15.

Data to Monitor

Recent consumer data has sent mixed signals that are difficult to decipher. Since the beginning of the year, sentiment has largely declined, but consumer spending has showed no indications of slowing.

 

On Tuesday of the next week, April Retail Sales will provide an update on consumer spending. Next week, a flurry of new housing statistics will shed light on how significantly increased mortgage rates may be affecting the market. The May NAHB Housing Market Index is released on Tuesday, followed by April Housing Starts and April Existing Home Sales on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

 

Home Depot and Walmart will report earnings on Tuesday, followed by Cisco, Lowe's, Target, and TJX Companies on Wednesday; Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, and Ross Stores on Thursday; and Deere & Co. on Friday.

Suggestion