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May 4th - During the May Day holiday, short-distance cross-border travel between Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao saw another surge. According to statistics from the Gongbei Border Inspection Station, from May 1st to 3rd, the station processed over 1.23 million inbound and outbound passengers traveling between Zhuhai and Macao through the Gongbei Port. As a core hub for interconnectivity within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and a key gateway connecting the mainland and Macao, the Gongbei Port has seen a continuous increase in passenger traffic this year, vividly demonstrating the vibrant integration and development of the Greater Bay Area.The UK Maritime Trade Operations Office: The maritime security threat level in the Strait of Hormuz remains critical due to ongoing regional military operations. Seafarers in the area should be aware of increased naval presence, enhanced force protection posture, potential VHF calls, and congestion near anchorages.Indonesias Statistics Agency: The Consumer Price Index rose 2.42% year-on-year in April.On May 4th, the Organization of the Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) issued a statement on May 3rd confirming that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had officially withdrawn from the organization. The statement said that the OPEC Secretariat had received a letter from UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei to the current Chairman of the Council of Ministers, announcing the UAEs decision to withdraw from the organization, effective May 1, 2026. Previously, on April 28th, the UAE announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC+, effective May 1st. OPEC was established in 1968, headquartered in Kuwait, and aims to promote cooperation among its member countries and strive to maintain reasonable oil prices. The organization includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, and Iraq as its member states.On May 4th, European Central Bank Governing Council member Winsch stated that Europe is "naively" believing that the free-market economic model can survive the global transformation driven by the United States. He pointed out that EU policymakers are still pursuing goals such as open markets and limited state aid, but these goals no longer reflect the geopolitical realities shaped by Trumps "America First" policies. "Open trade and strict state aid rules are feasible in a rules-based world," Winsch said. "But that world has disappeared, and if you cling too tightly to a world that has disappeared, you are being naive." At the heart of his argument is that Europe has failed to internalize the fact that the global economy has moved away from a level playing field. He said that US protectionist policies have reshaped this landscape. "The world has changed, and we cannot keep doing the same things and giving the same answers, and these issues have failed to some extent in the past."

Stock Bulls Remain Optimistic As Manufacturing Inflation Slows, According to Data

Daniel Rogers

May 16, 2022 11:04

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As data indicates a deceleration in manufacturing inflation, stock market bulls remain exceedingly cautious but are slightly more bullish. The Producer Price Index increased by 11 percent year-over-year in April, which was higher than anticipated but a significant decrease from March's 11.5 percent increase. As producer prices lead consumer prices, the report is generally positive, although markets and the Fed will need to observe a few more months of decreases before pronouncing that inflation is actually moderating.

Inflation

Economists also caution that products inflation may be declining because consumer demand is shifting away from items and toward services, suggesting that high prices may be migrating from one sector of the economy to another. The most recent data indicates that prices for services are increasing at the quickest rate in 30 years, with airfare leading the way. Even if inflation has reached its top, the question is how long it will remain elevated.

 

Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell cautioned Monday that the central bank cannot guarantee a "smooth landing" for the economy, citing the tight labor market and continued supply chain disruptions. Powell also emphasized that other "big events," including as Russia's war in Ukraine, are currently playing significant roles that are outside the Fed's control. Powell made the remarks after receiving Senate confirmation for a second four-year term.

 

The target inflation rate of the central bank is still "flexible +2 percent," but a number of officials have hinted that the new norm may be in the range of +2.5 percent to +3 percent. The Core PCE Prices Index, which stood at +5.2 percent in March, is one of the primary (but not the only) indicators used by the Fed to assess the rate of inflation. The April reading is expected to be released on May 27, a couple weeks before the Fed's next meeting on June 14-15.

Data to Monitor

Recent consumer data has sent mixed signals that are difficult to decipher. Since the beginning of the year, sentiment has largely declined, but consumer spending has showed no indications of slowing.

 

On Tuesday of the next week, April Retail Sales will provide an update on consumer spending. Next week, a flurry of new housing statistics will shed light on how significantly increased mortgage rates may be affecting the market. The May NAHB Housing Market Index is released on Tuesday, followed by April Housing Starts and April Existing Home Sales on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

 

Home Depot and Walmart will report earnings on Tuesday, followed by Cisco, Lowe's, Target, and TJX Companies on Wednesday; Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, and Ross Stores on Thursday; and Deere & Co. on Friday.

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