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Real-time News
September 11th - According to foreign media reports, U.S. consumer price inflation is expected to accelerate in August as gasoline prices rebound after two consecutive months of decline, reinforcing financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates next week. The U.S. Labor Department will release its August CPI report on Friday. This follows strong performance in several key components of Thursdays PPI report. Economists say that with oil prices returning above $100 per barrel, inflation is bound to remain high and expand further. Other economists believe that price pressures will persist due to import tariffs, especially the recent tariffs imposed on Canada, a major U.S. trading partner.US August Unadjusted CPI YoY (Previous: +3.4%, Median Expectation: +3.4%) 1. Citigroup: +3.3%; Capital Economics: +3.3%; UniCredit: 3.3%; Jefferies: +3.3%; Berenberg Bank: +3.3%; Deutsche Bank: +3.3%; 2. DBS Bank: +3.3%; Nomura Securities: +3.3%; Societe Generale: +3.3%; Lloyds Banking Group: +3.3%; Sparta Capital Securities: +3.3%; Allied Bank of Ireland: +3.4%; 3. Barclays: +3.4%; Wells Fargo: +3.4%; ABN AMRO: +3.4%; ANZ: +3.4%; Danske Bank: +3.4%; Royal Bank of Canada: +3.4%; 4. Bank of America: +3.4%; BNP Paribas: +3.4%; Allied Bank: +3.4%; Monex Group: +3.4%; DekaBank: +3.4%; Morgan Stanley: +3.4%; 5. Goldman Sachs: +3.4%; TD Securities: +3.4%; HSBC: +3.4%; Nikko Securities: +3.4%; UBS: +3.4%; CIBC: +3.4%; 6. JPMorgan Chase: +3.4%; Standard Chartered: 3.4%; Scotiabank: +3.4%; Sberbank Berlin: +3.4%; BMO: +3.4%; ING: +3.5%. US August Unadjusted Core CPI YoY (Previous: +2.5%, Median Expectation: +2.4%) 1. Citigroup: +2.3%; Jefferies: +2.3%; TD Securities: +2.3%; U.S. Bancorp: +2.3%; Allied Bank of Ireland: +2.4%; Deutsche Bank: +2.4%; 2. Barclays: +2.4%; ABN AMRO: +2.4%; Amtrak Financial: +2.4%; Monex Group: +2.4%; Danske Bank: +2.4%; Nordea: +2.4%; 3. ANZ: +2.4%; BNP Paribas: +2.4%; Bank of America: +2.4%; Lloyds Banking Group: +2.4%; SZSE: +2.4%; CIBC: +2.4%; 4. JPMorgan Chase: +2.4%; Capital Economics: +2.4%; Allied Bank: +2.4%; Goldman Sachs: +2.4%; DekaBank: +2.4%; Bank of Montreal: +2.4%; 5. Wells Fargo: +2.4%; HSBC: +2.4%; ING: +2.4%; Nomura Securities: +2.4%; Nikko Securities: +2.4%; Morgan Stanley: +2.4%; 6. Societe Generale: +2.4%; Standard Chartered: +2.4%; UBS: +2.4%; UniCredit: +2.4%; Scotiabank: +2.5%; Sparta Capital Securities: +2.5%.On September 11th, Benedict Cuquela, Chief Investment Strategist at Indosuez Wealth Management, stated in a report that the European Central Banks (ECB) focus solely on energy supply shocks was surprising. The ECB failed to consider the still fragile demand and the lack of drivers for core inflation. It also did not adequately account for the impact of tightening bond market interest rates. While the ECB is not lacking in credibility on inflation, there is a risk of over-tightening the nascent economic recovery.September 11 (Kyodo News) – Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi stated at a press conference that day that "no option is ruled out" in discussions and research related to revising the "Three Security Documents" regarding whether Japan should possess nuclear-powered submarines. This is not the first time Koizumi has made similar remarks. Last October, when asked about the issue, Koizumi also stated that "no option is ruled out" for the propulsion system of Japans next-generation submarines, hinting at the possibility of introducing nuclear submarines.On September 11, according to a report by Axios citing two US officials, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman called US President Trump twice on September 10, urging him to launch an attack on the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The report stated that Trump rejected the request. US officials said the US government currently has "no intention of taking direct military action against the Houthis." According to Axios, the US is increasingly concerned about the rapidly escalating conflict in Yemen and is increasing its support for Saudi Arabia while striving to avoid direct military intervention. The report also stated that US Central Command Commander Brad Cooper arrived in Saudi Arabia on September 10 for emergency coordination consultations. Axios added that in recent weeks, US military and civilian officials have made it clear to Saudi Arabia that Trumps directive is to "focus US forces on dealing with Iran and defending the Strait of Hormuz, avoiding opening new military fronts."

Stock Bulls Remain Optimistic As Manufacturing Inflation Slows, According to Data

Daniel Rogers

May 16, 2022 11:04

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As data indicates a deceleration in manufacturing inflation, stock market bulls remain exceedingly cautious but are slightly more bullish. The Producer Price Index increased by 11 percent year-over-year in April, which was higher than anticipated but a significant decrease from March's 11.5 percent increase. As producer prices lead consumer prices, the report is generally positive, although markets and the Fed will need to observe a few more months of decreases before pronouncing that inflation is actually moderating.

Inflation

Economists also caution that products inflation may be declining because consumer demand is shifting away from items and toward services, suggesting that high prices may be migrating from one sector of the economy to another. The most recent data indicates that prices for services are increasing at the quickest rate in 30 years, with airfare leading the way. Even if inflation has reached its top, the question is how long it will remain elevated.

 

Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell cautioned Monday that the central bank cannot guarantee a "smooth landing" for the economy, citing the tight labor market and continued supply chain disruptions. Powell also emphasized that other "big events," including as Russia's war in Ukraine, are currently playing significant roles that are outside the Fed's control. Powell made the remarks after receiving Senate confirmation for a second four-year term.

 

The target inflation rate of the central bank is still "flexible +2 percent," but a number of officials have hinted that the new norm may be in the range of +2.5 percent to +3 percent. The Core PCE Prices Index, which stood at +5.2 percent in March, is one of the primary (but not the only) indicators used by the Fed to assess the rate of inflation. The April reading is expected to be released on May 27, a couple weeks before the Fed's next meeting on June 14-15.

Data to Monitor

Recent consumer data has sent mixed signals that are difficult to decipher. Since the beginning of the year, sentiment has largely declined, but consumer spending has showed no indications of slowing.

 

On Tuesday of the next week, April Retail Sales will provide an update on consumer spending. Next week, a flurry of new housing statistics will shed light on how significantly increased mortgage rates may be affecting the market. The May NAHB Housing Market Index is released on Tuesday, followed by April Housing Starts and April Existing Home Sales on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

 

Home Depot and Walmart will report earnings on Tuesday, followed by Cisco, Lowe's, Target, and TJX Companies on Wednesday; Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, and Ross Stores on Thursday; and Deere & Co. on Friday.

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