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On April 10th, Thai Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas stated that due to the Middle East conflict, Thailand expects oil prices to remain high for up to two years, foreshadowing sustained pressure on this net energy importer already grappling with rising costs and slowing growth. Speaking to lawmakers during a parliamentary debate following a government policy statement, Ekniti noted that energy infrastructure in the Middle East has been severely damaged, and oil and gas supplies could take one to two years to stabilize. He added that the government plans to accelerate the adoption of solar, biofuels, and other renewable energy sources to cushion the impact of high energy costs on households and businesses. The energy shock has already affected the economic outlook. Economists have begun to lower their growth forecasts for Thailand as rising fuel costs have dampened consumption and disrupted exports and tourism—two core drivers of the Thai economy.On April 10th, according to the National Cybersecurity Notification Center, the center detected a recent surge in supply chain poisoning attacks. Targets included the API development tool Apifox, the Python library LiteLLM, and the JavaScript HTTP library Axios, involving two core supply chain scenarios: open-source software repositories and commercial tools. The Axios poisoning incident, in particular, occurred because many AI applications and plugins, such as OpenClaw, directly rely on this library, allowing the risk to spread further to end users through the dependency chain. These three supply chain poisoning incidents share common characteristics: high stealth, wide impact, high severity, and rapid spread, potentially causing serious harm such as credential theft, remote code execution, and sensitive data leakage.On the morning of April 10, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, met with Cheng Li-wen, Chairperson of the Kuomintang, in Beijing.Hong Kong-listed apparel stocks continued their upward trend, with Fast Retailing (06288.HK) rising nearly 10%, Tianji Holdings (01520.HK) rising over 6%, and Anta Sports (02020.HK) and Bosideng (03998.HK) following suit.On April 10th, Wang Zhihua, Director-General of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, stated that since the beginning of this year, foreign trade enterprises have actively expanded markets, secured orders, pursued innovation, and built brands, adding more resilience and vitality to Chinas foreign trade. According to customs statistics, in the first two months of this year, both the scale and growth rate of Chinas goods trade imports and exports were at relatively high levels compared to the same period in previous years, and a good start is expected for the first quarter as well.

Stock Bulls Remain Optimistic As Manufacturing Inflation Slows, According to Data

Daniel Rogers

May 16, 2022 11:04

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As data indicates a deceleration in manufacturing inflation, stock market bulls remain exceedingly cautious but are slightly more bullish. The Producer Price Index increased by 11 percent year-over-year in April, which was higher than anticipated but a significant decrease from March's 11.5 percent increase. As producer prices lead consumer prices, the report is generally positive, although markets and the Fed will need to observe a few more months of decreases before pronouncing that inflation is actually moderating.

Inflation

Economists also caution that products inflation may be declining because consumer demand is shifting away from items and toward services, suggesting that high prices may be migrating from one sector of the economy to another. The most recent data indicates that prices for services are increasing at the quickest rate in 30 years, with airfare leading the way. Even if inflation has reached its top, the question is how long it will remain elevated.

 

Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell cautioned Monday that the central bank cannot guarantee a "smooth landing" for the economy, citing the tight labor market and continued supply chain disruptions. Powell also emphasized that other "big events," including as Russia's war in Ukraine, are currently playing significant roles that are outside the Fed's control. Powell made the remarks after receiving Senate confirmation for a second four-year term.

 

The target inflation rate of the central bank is still "flexible +2 percent," but a number of officials have hinted that the new norm may be in the range of +2.5 percent to +3 percent. The Core PCE Prices Index, which stood at +5.2 percent in March, is one of the primary (but not the only) indicators used by the Fed to assess the rate of inflation. The April reading is expected to be released on May 27, a couple weeks before the Fed's next meeting on June 14-15.

Data to Monitor

Recent consumer data has sent mixed signals that are difficult to decipher. Since the beginning of the year, sentiment has largely declined, but consumer spending has showed no indications of slowing.

 

On Tuesday of the next week, April Retail Sales will provide an update on consumer spending. Next week, a flurry of new housing statistics will shed light on how significantly increased mortgage rates may be affecting the market. The May NAHB Housing Market Index is released on Tuesday, followed by April Housing Starts and April Existing Home Sales on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

 

Home Depot and Walmart will report earnings on Tuesday, followed by Cisco, Lowe's, Target, and TJX Companies on Wednesday; Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, and Ross Stores on Thursday; and Deere & Co. on Friday.

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