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With a September Federal Reserve rate cut all but certain, options traders are widely betting on a stable stock market ahead of Thursdays CPI data. However, this bet could be risky if the data shows rising inflation. The markets rationale for a rate cut is straightforward: US job growth is stagnant and the economy needs stimulus. Fridays weak jobs data reinforced this expectation, prompting investors to fully price in a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed next week. The markets reaction has been muted: US stocks fell slightly on Friday, and the fear gauge edged up slightly, but remains well below the critical 20 level, where it has mostly remained since June. Looking ahead, options traders are betting on a roughly 0.7% two-way move in the S&P 500 following Thursdays CPI release, below the 1% average realized move over the past year. However, this trade ignores a key risk: what if inflation figures significantly exceed expectations? "Its a very delicate balance right now," said Eric Teal, chief investment officer of Comerica Wealth Management. "Any data thats very positive or very negative could change the market outlook."On September 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jeffrey Bessant stated that the United States and Europe are discussing a new round of sanctions and secondary tariffs against Russia, hoping that the "collapse" of the Russian economy will prompt Putin to engage in peace talks with Ukraine. "We are ready to increase pressure on Russia, but we need the cooperation of our European partners," Bessant said. He also stated that President Trump and Vice President Cyril Vance spoke with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Friday, and that von der Leyen subsequently discussed sanctions with Bessant.Israel Airports Authority: The first flight from Ramon Airport to Tel Aviv will take off soon.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: OPEC+s production increase plan is beneficial to the Russian economy.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: OPEC+ will make monthly production decisions based on market conditions.

NASDAQ Index, S&P 500, Dow Jones Analysis – NASDAQ Climbs Back, Dow Jones Supported By Salesforce Performance

Alice Wang

Mar 03, 2023 15:43


S&P 500

After a multi-day decline, speculators purchased equities, and the S&P 500 recovered from session lows.


Traders today concentrated on changes in the Bond market. The yield on 10-year Bonds made an effort to stabilize above 4.08% while remaining above the significant 4.00% mark.


Although rising Treasury rates are negative for equities, it appears that some speculators were ready to take advantage of the recent decline to grow their long holdings.


After surpassing expert expectations and expanding its share repurchase program, Salesforce increased its gains by 11%. Due to its Investor Day falling short of market forecasts, Tesla was one of the largest losses in the S&P 500 today.


From a broad perspective, the crucial issue is whether dealers will be able to disregard the changes in the market for government bonds in the event that Treasury rates keep rising.

NASDAQ

Despite increasing Bond rates, the NASDAQ rose back above the 11,900 mark. It appears that the primary forces behind this move were profit-taking and dip-buying.


NASDAQ needs to stabilize back above the 50 DMA at 11,965 in order to have a chance to build long-term upward momentum. NASDAQ will move toward the next support level at the 20 EMA at 12,145 if it rests above the 50 EMA.

Jones, Dow

Due to the Salesforce stock's impressive showing during today's trading period, Dow Jones made some progress.


The Dow Jones experienced solid support in the 32,500–32,800 range, which is encouraging for bears. The Dow Jones will advance toward the 33,200 level of opposition if it moves above the 33,000 mark.

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