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With a September Federal Reserve rate cut all but certain, options traders are widely betting on a stable stock market ahead of Thursdays CPI data. However, this bet could be risky if the data shows rising inflation. The markets rationale for a rate cut is straightforward: US job growth is stagnant and the economy needs stimulus. Fridays weak jobs data reinforced this expectation, prompting investors to fully price in a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed next week. The markets reaction has been muted: US stocks fell slightly on Friday, and the fear gauge edged up slightly, but remains well below the critical 20 level, where it has mostly remained since June. Looking ahead, options traders are betting on a roughly 0.7% two-way move in the S&P 500 following Thursdays CPI release, below the 1% average realized move over the past year. However, this trade ignores a key risk: what if inflation figures significantly exceed expectations? "Its a very delicate balance right now," said Eric Teal, chief investment officer of Comerica Wealth Management. "Any data thats very positive or very negative could change the market outlook."On September 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jeffrey Bessant stated that the United States and Europe are discussing a new round of sanctions and secondary tariffs against Russia, hoping that the "collapse" of the Russian economy will prompt Putin to engage in peace talks with Ukraine. "We are ready to increase pressure on Russia, but we need the cooperation of our European partners," Bessant said. He also stated that President Trump and Vice President Cyril Vance spoke with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Friday, and that von der Leyen subsequently discussed sanctions with Bessant.Israel Airports Authority: The first flight from Ramon Airport to Tel Aviv will take off soon.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: OPEC+s production increase plan is beneficial to the Russian economy.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: OPEC+ will make monthly production decisions based on market conditions.

Hang Seng Index, ASX200, Nikkei 225: Hang Seng Trails on Growth Targets

Alice Wang

Mar 06, 2023 17:13

Market Overview

It was a bullish start to the week for the Asian markets, with the ASX 200 and Nikkei 225 on the move. However, the Hang Seng Index trailed the front runners, with revised growth targets from Beijing testing buyer appetite.

Economic indicators from the US and a shift in sentiment toward Fed monetary policy supported a bullish end to the week for the US markets. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped from 55.2 to 55.1, indicating solid service sector activity and a sharp rise in hiring. In February, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index jumped from 50.0 to 54.0.


However, the numbers failed to fuel more aggressive Fed policy bets, with the talk of slow and steady rate hikes resonating.

Hawkish chatter from the weekend failed to weigh in risk sentiment this morning. On Saturday, FOMC Member Mary Daly spoke of lifting interest rates in 50-basis point increments to tackle inflation.

However, growth targets from Beijing pegged back the Hang Seng Index. China delivered a 5% growth target, below market expectations of 5.5%. The disappointing growth target weighed on the CSI 300, which fell by 0.56% this morning, bucking a bullish market trend.

There were no economic indicators from Asia to distract investors this morning. With US factory orders out later today, the focus will shift to the Fed and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on Tuesday. A move to a more hawkish posture would catch the markets by surprise.