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Futures data from September 17th: Spot gold prices surged above the 3,700 mark overnight, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.23% to $3,727.50 per ounce, and SHFE gold futures closing up 0.19%. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical uncertainty are all contributing to golds performance. Focus is on the Federal Reserves September meeting and the subsequent Quarterly Economic Projections (SEP). The US dollar continued to weaken on Tuesday, with the US dollar index falling 0.74% to a low of 96.54, hitting a near two-month low. Furthermore, the dollar fell 0.9% against the euro, reaching its lowest level since September 2021. Regarding economic data, US retail sales for August, released on Tuesday, rose 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of a 0.2% increase. The previous reading was revised from 0.5% to 0.6%, demonstrating resilience in consumer spending. The Federal Reserve held its meeting early Thursday morning, and a rate cut is all but certain. With the US Presidents newly nominated Fed Governor, Milan, participating in the FOMC meeting, the published dot plot is expected to show a more dovish tone, with the number of rate cuts for 2025 expected to fluctuate between two and three. Furthermore, continued pressure from the White House on Powell and other governors is crucial. Concerns about the Feds independence may continue to exacerbate market volatility.According to the Wall Street Journal: Eli Lilly (LLY.N) will invest $5 billion to build a factory in Virginia, USA.Japanese Ministry of Finance: Japans exports to the United States fell 13.8% year-on-year in August; exports to the European Union increased 5.5% year-on-year in August.Japans seasonally adjusted merchandise trade account in August was -150.125 billion yen, compared with expectations of -341.3 billion yen and the previous value of -303 billion yen.Japans annualized rate of merchandise imports in August was -5.2%, in line with expectations of -4.2%. The previous value was revised from -7.50% to -7.40%.

Look at $82.57 on NYMEX crude oil

Oct 26, 2021 11:03

On Wednesday (October 13), international oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range at a high level. There is concern that soaring coal and natural gas prices in Asia and Europe will stimulate inflation and slow global growth, thereby reducing oil demand. The dollar is near a one-year high, which also put pressure on oil prices.

GMT+8 13:56, NYMEX crude oil futures rose 0.01% to 80.65 US dollars/barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 0.05% to 83.46 US dollars/barrel.


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday (October 12) lowered the growth prospects of the United States and other major industrialized countries, and stated that continued supply chain disruptions and price pressures hindered the recovery of the global economy from the new crown epidemic.

The IMF is concerned that the momentum of economic growth has weakened, which has increased the uncertainty in the oil market. However, oil observers still focus on whether the soaring prices of natural gas and coal will lead to an increase in demand for petroleum products for power generation.

An analyst from the Research Department of ANZ Bank said in a research report: "More and more people expect that the high prices of natural gas and thermal coal may boost the demand for alternative fuels such as diesel and fuel oil."

On the daily chart, U.S. oil is in an upward ((3)) wave starting from $61.74, and the upper resistance is looking at the 38.2% target of $88.66. On the hourly chart, oil prices are in five upward waves starting from $74.97, and the upper resistance looks at the 161.8% target of $82.75. Wave 5 is a sub-wave of the upward (1) wave that started at $61.74. (1) Waves are the sub-waves of ((3)) waves.

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