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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Gold trading strategy on October 13: Focus on short-term trading opportunities in the day, and activists short rallies

Oct 26, 2021 11:02

On Wednesday (October 13), spot gold rose slightly. In the day, we will pay attention to the short-term trading opportunities brought by the US CPI data and the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting. It is recommended that activists go short rallies, and conservatives continue to wait and see.


Daily level: Gold prices continue to fluctuate sideways, waiting for important US CPI data and the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting to guide further directions.

The recent trend of gold prices is drowsy, investors can hardly find the opportunity to enter the market, and the operation is more difficult. But the data in the evening may provide new trading opportunities.

Given the high probability that the Fed’s meeting minutes are likely to be eagle-eyed, if the CPI continues to rise, it may further strengthen the Fed’s expectations of early reduction and interest rate hikes, which will be negative for gold prices.

The European energy crisis intensified in September. Natural gas prices soared by more than 30% that month, and indirectly pushed U.S. oil up by nearly 10%, which may push up the actual inflation data.

Therefore, it is recommended that radicals go short on rallies, and conservatives continue to wait and see.

The initial resistance level above focuses on the 38.2% retracement level of 1764.93, and further attention is paid to the 50% retracement level of 1778.22 and the 61.8% retracement level of 1791.52.

The initial support below focuses on the 23.6% retracement level of 1748.49, and further attention is paid to the low of 1738.12 on September 23 and the low of 1721.76 on September 29.

(Spot gold daily chart)

Resistance levels: 1764.93; 1778.22; 1791.52
Support levels: 1748.49; 1738.12; 1721.76

Short-term operating recommendations: conservatives wait and see, radicals short rallies.

GMT+8 13:41, spot gold was quoted at US$1762.01 per ounce.