International gold prices rose slightly, but the bulls must flee in time!

On Wednesday (October 13), international gold prices strengthened slightly, and the yields of the U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury bonds fell slightly to bring support. Investors are waiting for the US inflation data to be released to study and judge the Fed’s policy normalization path.

At GMT+8 14:38, spot gold rose 0.15% to US$1762.76 per ounce; the main COMEX gold contract rose 0.19% to US$1762.6 per ounce; the US dollar index fell 0.15% to 94.382.


With the increase in global inflationary pressures, money market prices are reacting in advance to actively raise interest rates. The US September CPI data will be released on Wednesday at 20:30 GMT+8, and the minutes of the Fed’s policy meeting on September 21-22 will be released at 2:00 GMT+8 on Thursday (October 14).

DailyFX exchange rate strategist Ilya Spivak said: "We will see the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the important September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, so I think that after this period of consolidation, gold Will be able to obtain a directional catalyst. If the CPI data further heat up, then we may see the Fed may need to speed up the interest rate hike expectations."

St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman Brad said on Tuesday (October 12) that he supports the Fed starting to reduce the pace of asset purchases next month and end the plan next spring to raise interest rates if necessary to keep inflation down.

In an interview with CNBC, Brad said: “The argument that inflation naturally fades is reasonable, but I only want to give this scenario a 50% possibility.” He added that he hopes to keep inflation high or otherwise for the next few months. Be prepared for the possibility of further gains. "I just want to be prepared in case we have to act in advance so that we can take action next spring or summer as a last resort."

Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst for OANDA Asia Pacific, said in a report that risk aversion was also increasing before the US earnings season. The threat of the Fed's reduction of stimulus should limit gold's gains, and it will continue to trend downward in the coming weeks.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday lowered the growth prospects of the United States and other major industrialized countries, and said that continued supply chain disruptions and price pressures hindered the recovery of the global economy from the new crown epidemic.

The IMF said that US economic growth may shrink further because its forecast assumes that the US Congress will approve President Biden’s 10-year US$4 trillion infrastructure and social expenditure plan. Lawmakers are now trying to reach a consensus on a smaller plan, and the IMF said that a significant reduction in the size of the plan would weaken the growth prospects of the United States and its trading partners.

The Democratic-controlled U.S. House of Representatives finally approved a bill passed by the Senate on Tuesday to temporarily increase the government’s borrowing limit to $28.9 trillion and postpone the risk of default until at least early December.