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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

International gold prices rose slightly, but the bulls must flee in time!

Oct 26, 2021 11:03

On Wednesday (October 13), international gold prices strengthened slightly, and the yields of the U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury bonds fell slightly to bring support. Investors are waiting for the US inflation data to be released to study and judge the Fed’s policy normalization path.

At GMT+8 14:38, spot gold rose 0.15% to US$1762.76 per ounce; the main COMEX gold contract rose 0.19% to US$1762.6 per ounce; the US dollar index fell 0.15% to 94.382.


With the increase in global inflationary pressures, money market prices are reacting in advance to actively raise interest rates. The US September CPI data will be released on Wednesday at 20:30 GMT+8, and the minutes of the Fed’s policy meeting on September 21-22 will be released at 2:00 GMT+8 on Thursday (October 14).

DailyFX exchange rate strategist Ilya Spivak said: "We will see the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the important September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, so I think that after this period of consolidation, gold Will be able to obtain a directional catalyst. If the CPI data further heat up, then we may see the Fed may need to speed up the interest rate hike expectations."

St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman Brad said on Tuesday (October 12) that he supports the Fed starting to reduce the pace of asset purchases next month and end the plan next spring to raise interest rates if necessary to keep inflation down.

In an interview with CNBC, Brad said: “The argument that inflation naturally fades is reasonable, but I only want to give this scenario a 50% possibility.” He added that he hopes to keep inflation high or otherwise for the next few months. Be prepared for the possibility of further gains. "I just want to be prepared in case we have to act in advance so that we can take action next spring or summer as a last resort."

Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst for OANDA Asia Pacific, said in a report that risk aversion was also increasing before the US earnings season. The threat of the Fed's reduction of stimulus should limit gold's gains, and it will continue to trend downward in the coming weeks.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday lowered the growth prospects of the United States and other major industrialized countries, and said that continued supply chain disruptions and price pressures hindered the recovery of the global economy from the new crown epidemic.

The IMF said that US economic growth may shrink further because its forecast assumes that the US Congress will approve President Biden’s 10-year US$4 trillion infrastructure and social expenditure plan. Lawmakers are now trying to reach a consensus on a smaller plan, and the IMF said that a significant reduction in the size of the plan would weaken the growth prospects of the United States and its trading partners.

The Democratic-controlled U.S. House of Representatives finally approved a bill passed by the Senate on Tuesday to temporarily increase the government’s borrowing limit to $28.9 trillion and postpone the risk of default until at least early December.

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