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Futures data from September 17th: Spot gold prices surged above the 3,700 mark overnight, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.23% to $3,727.50 per ounce, and SHFE gold futures closing up 0.19%. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical uncertainty are all contributing to golds performance. Focus is on the Federal Reserves September meeting and the subsequent Quarterly Economic Projections (SEP). The US dollar continued to weaken on Tuesday, with the US dollar index falling 0.74% to a low of 96.54, hitting a near two-month low. Furthermore, the dollar fell 0.9% against the euro, reaching its lowest level since September 2021. Regarding economic data, US retail sales for August, released on Tuesday, rose 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of a 0.2% increase. The previous reading was revised from 0.5% to 0.6%, demonstrating resilience in consumer spending. The Federal Reserve held its meeting early Thursday morning, and a rate cut is all but certain. With the US Presidents newly nominated Fed Governor, Milan, participating in the FOMC meeting, the published dot plot is expected to show a more dovish tone, with the number of rate cuts for 2025 expected to fluctuate between two and three. Furthermore, continued pressure from the White House on Powell and other governors is crucial. Concerns about the Feds independence may continue to exacerbate market volatility.According to the Wall Street Journal: Eli Lilly (LLY.N) will invest $5 billion to build a factory in Virginia, USA.Japanese Ministry of Finance: Japans exports to the United States fell 13.8% year-on-year in August; exports to the European Union increased 5.5% year-on-year in August.Japans seasonally adjusted merchandise trade account in August was -150.125 billion yen, compared with expectations of -341.3 billion yen and the previous value of -303 billion yen.Japans annualized rate of merchandise imports in August was -5.2%, in line with expectations of -4.2%. The previous value was revised from -7.50% to -7.40%.

U.S. crude oil trading strategy on October 13: oil price rise slows down, need to be wary of callbacks

Oct 26, 2021 11:03

On Wednesday (October 13), US crude oil fell slightly, and the short-term gains slowed down, and the possibility of a callback is not ruled out. It is recommended that conservatives wait and see, and activists continue to buy more on dips.


Daily level: The rise of oil prices this week has been limited to a certain extent, and natural gas prices have also begun to pull back.

But the fundamentals behind it still haven't changed much, which determines that oil prices will continue to run at a high level or even continue to rise in the short term.

However, from a technical point of view, the RSI shows an overbought signal, which will cause a certain drag on the oil market bulls, so the possibility of a short-term correction is not ruled out. It is recommended that conservatives wait and see, and radicals continue to do more at low positions.

The upper resistance level focuses on various integer levels, and the lower support level first focuses on the psychological level of 80.00 near the 5-day moving average, and further focuses on the 10-day moving average of 78.46 and the July 6 high of 76.98.

(U.S. crude oil daily chart)

Resistance levels: 82.18; 83.00; 84.00
Support levels: 80.00; 78.46; 76.98

Short-term operation recommendations: conservatives wait and see, radicals do more low.

At 14:47 GMT+8, US crude oil was quoted at US$80.58 per barrel.