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On March 28, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement saying that, as part of Operation Honest Commitment 4, the IRGC Navy and Space Force conducted strikes against multiple heavy industrial targets in the United States and Israel using missiles and drones in the 85th wave of attacks. The statement indicated that this operation was in retaliation for previous attacks by US and Israeli forces against Iranian civilian industrial facilities. During the operation, Iranian armed forces launched saturation attacks on heavy industrial centers in Israel and other regions, destroying some targets. The IRGC emphasized that if the US and Israel continue to attack Iranian industrial systems, the scale of Irans subsequent retaliation will "exceed their expectations." In addition, during the interception and counterattack operations, Iranian air defense systems shot down a US-made MQ-9 drone over Shiraz. A US F-16 fighter jet was hit in southern Fars province and subsequently crashed while en route to an emergency landing at a base in Saudi Arabia.March 28 (Wall Street Journal) – Energy analysts warn that the oil market could face even greater turmoil if the Houthi rebels in Yemen resume attacks on Red Sea shipping. A renewed attack could cut significant amounts of oil from global supply and drive up prices. Saudi Arabia has been diverting as much crude oil as possible from the Persian Gulf to its Red Sea port of Yanbu, from where cargoes are primarily destined for Asia. While this hasnt fully offset the amount of oil unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, it has helped limit the rise in global oil prices. Analysts say that if Houthi attacks make it too dangerous for tankers to approach Yanbu, millions of barrels of crude oil could be stranded daily in the Middle East. In that case, Saudi Arabia might be forced to cut production along with Kuwait and Iraq.On March 28, the Fajar Military District of Fars Province, part of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, issued a statement saying that Iranian security forces discovered and destroyed 122 cluster bombs dropped by US and Israeli warplanes in the suburbs and surrounding areas of Shiraz, the provincial capital. The statement indicated that these cluster bombs were dropped several days earlier in areas including the village of Kafri in Shiraz, causing civilian casualties. The munitions were identified as BLU-108 submunitions carried by US-made CBU-105 cluster bombs. The statement concluded that the US and Israeli forces use of such weapons against civilian areas is further irrefutable evidence of their war crimes.Sources say Saudi Arabias crude oil exports have reached approximately 5 million barrels per day, and its petroleum product exports have reached 700,000 to 900,000 barrels per day. The Saudi East-West oil pipeline has a transport capacity of 7 million barrels per day.The head of Russias State Atomic Energy Corporation (regarding the renewed attack near Irans Bushehr nuclear power plant) stated that the situation on the ground continues to deteriorate, and the attack poses a direct threat to nuclear security.

June Gold Buyers May Face Difficulties at $1987.60

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:14

The market's strength is being fueled by demand for a hedge against rising inflation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lessening pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike, and the US Dollar's intraday reversal top.

 

June Comex gold futures are currently trading at $1982.70, up $6.60 or 0.33 percent from their previous close. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is currently trading at $184.66, up $0.89 or 0.48 percent from its previous close.

 

Gold is regarded as an inflation hedge and a hedge against geopolitical concerns. However, higher interest rates in the United States would increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion and strengthen the dollar against which it is valued.

 

However, the price action shows that gold buyers are seeking insurance against inflation and are not very concerned about opportunity costs at the moment. Despite all of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and anticipation for aggressive rate hikes, we have yet to witness a shift in the direction of inflation.

 

Gold is likely to remain underpinned for the foreseeable future as long as the inflation arrow continues to point upward and the Ukraine war continues.

 

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Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. A move over the intraday high of $1985.50 reaffirms the uptrend. A break of $1916.20 will revert the major trend to the downside.

 

On the upside, the retracement zone between $1987.60 and $2009.90 is the nearest objective.

 

On the downside, the long-term Fibonacci level at $1958.70 serves as the initial support, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1932.90.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The June Comex gold futures market's path through Wednesday's close is likely to be dictated by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1987.60.

Scenario of Bullishness

A sustained move above $1987.60 will signal that buyers are present. This could provide the necessary momentum for a test of the Fibonacci level at $2009.90. This is a trigger point for an upside acceleration.

Scenario of the Bear

A persistent decline below $1987.60 indicates the existence of sellers. They intend to attempt the formation of a secondary lower top. This, if successful, might result in a break into $1958.70.

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