EUR/USD 1.14109
0.220%
Gold 4058.93
0.755%
Oil 83.798
6.981%
USD/JPY 163.599
-0.159%
GBP/USD 1.33207
0.246%
GBP/JPY 217.930
0.100%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference in ten minutes.On July 30th, Federal Reserve officials kept interest rates unchanged, but the vote was divided, showing that some policymakers are increasingly convinced that a rate hike is needed to curb rising inflation. Logan, Hammark, and Kashkari all voted against a 25-basis-point increase. This marks the fifth consecutive time officials have chosen to keep rates unchanged. The rest of the committees post-meeting statement was entirely consistent with the statement released after the June meeting. Officials reiterated their commitment to "achieving price stability." However, the dissenting votes suggest that for Fed Chair Warsh, who just took office in May, continuing to hold rates steady will face greater challenges if inflation concerns intensify. Trump has repeatedly called for rate cuts, including this Monday. Warsh, nominated by Trump to be Fed Chair earlier this year, stated that he would ensure policy decisions are not influenced by politics.On July 30th, in this interest rate decision, three of the five regional Federal Reserve presidents voting on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted against it: Cleveland Fed President Hammark, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan. All three unanimously advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. This is the first time since September 2016 that the Fed has seen three unanimous dissenting votes in a single policy decision, reflecting a growing voice within the Fed supporting a tightening policy. Fed Chairman Warsh, who supports maintaining the current interest rate, has consistently emphasized the Feds responsibility to curb inflation. He is expected to be asked at the press conference at 2:30 AM Beijing time why he believes continuing to be patient remains the most appropriate policy option.Market expectations indicate that the market is no longer fully pricing in a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve.Nick Timuraos, the Feds mouthpiece: The FOMC decided to keep interest rates unchanged with a 9-3 vote. Three regional Fed presidents voted against a 25-basis-point rate hike. This is the first time since 2016 that the Fed has received three unanimous dissenting votes in a single policy decision.

June Gold Buyers May Face Difficulties at $1987.60

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:14

The market's strength is being fueled by demand for a hedge against rising inflation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lessening pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike, and the US Dollar's intraday reversal top.

 

June Comex gold futures are currently trading at $1982.70, up $6.60 or 0.33 percent from their previous close. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is currently trading at $184.66, up $0.89 or 0.48 percent from its previous close.

 

Gold is regarded as an inflation hedge and a hedge against geopolitical concerns. However, higher interest rates in the United States would increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion and strengthen the dollar against which it is valued.

 

However, the price action shows that gold buyers are seeking insurance against inflation and are not very concerned about opportunity costs at the moment. Despite all of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and anticipation for aggressive rate hikes, we have yet to witness a shift in the direction of inflation.

 

Gold is likely to remain underpinned for the foreseeable future as long as the inflation arrow continues to point upward and the Ukraine war continues.

 

image.png 

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. A move over the intraday high of $1985.50 reaffirms the uptrend. A break of $1916.20 will revert the major trend to the downside.

 

On the upside, the retracement zone between $1987.60 and $2009.90 is the nearest objective.

 

On the downside, the long-term Fibonacci level at $1958.70 serves as the initial support, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1932.90.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The June Comex gold futures market's path through Wednesday's close is likely to be dictated by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1987.60.

Scenario of Bullishness

A sustained move above $1987.60 will signal that buyers are present. This could provide the necessary momentum for a test of the Fibonacci level at $2009.90. This is a trigger point for an upside acceleration.

Scenario of the Bear

A persistent decline below $1987.60 indicates the existence of sellers. They intend to attempt the formation of a secondary lower top. This, if successful, might result in a break into $1958.70.

Suggestion