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On August 9th, a Reuters poll of economists predicted that the U.S. overall CPI annual rate would fall to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June, while the core CPI annual rate would fall to 2.5% from 2.6% in the previous month. Economists at Citigroup believe that, as expected, if inflation readings soften for the second consecutive month, it would mean that more than one months data points to easing inflationary pressures, essentially ruling out a September rate hike. However, economists also expect core services inflation to rise slightly in July, with prices increasing by 0.3% month-on-month. This figure was flat in May and June. Bank of America analysts stated that the rebound in core services indicators may keep a September rate hike on the table. Analyst Kate Duguid said that if the latter view prevails, and inflation data is lower than expected, then the Feds rate hike may be postponed until December or later.According to Sky News: Yemeni sources say the Houthi rebels fourth wave of missile and drone attacks targeted government positions in the port of Mocha and its outskirts.According to the Syrian state news agency, the Syrian Foreign Ministry stated that Syria and Russia will begin restructuring Russias presence along the Syrian coast within the framework of a memorandum.Hamas senior official Bassem Naim: It is expected that mediators and the United States will pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government to adhere to the roadmap.Sources say four Yemeni government soldiers were killed in a Houthi attack.

June Gold Buyers May Face Difficulties at $1987.60

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:14

The market's strength is being fueled by demand for a hedge against rising inflation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lessening pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike, and the US Dollar's intraday reversal top.

 

June Comex gold futures are currently trading at $1982.70, up $6.60 or 0.33 percent from their previous close. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is currently trading at $184.66, up $0.89 or 0.48 percent from its previous close.

 

Gold is regarded as an inflation hedge and a hedge against geopolitical concerns. However, higher interest rates in the United States would increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion and strengthen the dollar against which it is valued.

 

However, the price action shows that gold buyers are seeking insurance against inflation and are not very concerned about opportunity costs at the moment. Despite all of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and anticipation for aggressive rate hikes, we have yet to witness a shift in the direction of inflation.

 

Gold is likely to remain underpinned for the foreseeable future as long as the inflation arrow continues to point upward and the Ukraine war continues.

 

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Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. A move over the intraday high of $1985.50 reaffirms the uptrend. A break of $1916.20 will revert the major trend to the downside.

 

On the upside, the retracement zone between $1987.60 and $2009.90 is the nearest objective.

 

On the downside, the long-term Fibonacci level at $1958.70 serves as the initial support, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1932.90.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The June Comex gold futures market's path through Wednesday's close is likely to be dictated by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1987.60.

Scenario of Bullishness

A sustained move above $1987.60 will signal that buyers are present. This could provide the necessary momentum for a test of the Fibonacci level at $2009.90. This is a trigger point for an upside acceleration.

Scenario of the Bear

A persistent decline below $1987.60 indicates the existence of sellers. They intend to attempt the formation of a secondary lower top. This, if successful, might result in a break into $1958.70.

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