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Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference in ten minutes.June 16 – The 68th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Peoples Congress (NPC) was held on the morning of June 16 at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Chairman Zhao Leji presided over the meeting. The meeting decided that the 23rd session of the Standing Committee of the 14th NPC will be held in Beijing from June 23 to 26. The meeting recommended that the 23rd session of the Standing Committee of the 14th NPC deliberate on the State Councils proposals regarding the draft revisions to the Bidding and Tendering Law, the draft Financial Law, the draft revisions to the Law of the Peoples Bank of China, and the draft decision authorizing the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region to exercise jurisdiction over the Hong Kong side of the Huanggang Port and related extended areas.The yield on Japans 5-year government bonds rose 5 basis points to 1.915%.The Central Bank of Ukraine projects foreign aid of $53 billion this year, $42 billion in 2027, and $22 billion in 2028.On June 16th, Takashi Fujiwara, Chief Fund Manager at Resona Asset Management, stated that the Bank of Japans (BOJ) statement explicitly indicated that short- and medium-term real interest rates are negative. This could mean the BOJ does not want ultra-long-term bond yields to rise further. Simultaneously, this could also be a signal from the BOJ that if short- and medium-term interest rates remain low, businesses can easily raise funds and potentially expand into higher-risk sectors. The BOJ discussed the economy and prices side-by-side in its statement. This could indicate the BOJs willingness to raise interest rates further. Even if the opening of the Strait of Hormuz slows price increases, the BOJ can still use economic growth as justification for raising interest rates.

June Gold Buyers May Face Difficulties at $1987.60

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:14

The market's strength is being fueled by demand for a hedge against rising inflation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lessening pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike, and the US Dollar's intraday reversal top.

 

June Comex gold futures are currently trading at $1982.70, up $6.60 or 0.33 percent from their previous close. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is currently trading at $184.66, up $0.89 or 0.48 percent from its previous close.

 

Gold is regarded as an inflation hedge and a hedge against geopolitical concerns. However, higher interest rates in the United States would increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion and strengthen the dollar against which it is valued.

 

However, the price action shows that gold buyers are seeking insurance against inflation and are not very concerned about opportunity costs at the moment. Despite all of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and anticipation for aggressive rate hikes, we have yet to witness a shift in the direction of inflation.

 

Gold is likely to remain underpinned for the foreseeable future as long as the inflation arrow continues to point upward and the Ukraine war continues.

 

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Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. A move over the intraday high of $1985.50 reaffirms the uptrend. A break of $1916.20 will revert the major trend to the downside.

 

On the upside, the retracement zone between $1987.60 and $2009.90 is the nearest objective.

 

On the downside, the long-term Fibonacci level at $1958.70 serves as the initial support, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1932.90.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The June Comex gold futures market's path through Wednesday's close is likely to be dictated by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1987.60.

Scenario of Bullishness

A sustained move above $1987.60 will signal that buyers are present. This could provide the necessary momentum for a test of the Fibonacci level at $2009.90. This is a trigger point for an upside acceleration.

Scenario of the Bear

A persistent decline below $1987.60 indicates the existence of sellers. They intend to attempt the formation of a secondary lower top. This, if successful, might result in a break into $1958.70.

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