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August 17th - Japanese automakers are facing a double whammy from the impact of the Iran war and the potential for a stronger yen. Toyota, Honda, and Nissan have recently benefited from the historically weak yen, with Toyota and Honda raising their full-year earnings forecasts and Nissan achieving its first profit in nearly two years. However, this positive effect may reverse as the yen strengthens. Vincent Sun, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, stated that a stronger yen will force automakers to choose between raising prices overseas and sacrificing profits. The former could lead to a decline in market share, while the latter would compress the yen value of overseas profits. Bernstein predicts that for every 1% appreciation of the yen, Japanese automakers operating profits will typically be affected by about 2%, with some companies potentially experiencing an impact of up to 4%. Analysts also believe that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could drive up the costs of key raw materials such as naphtha, resins, aluminum, copper, steel, and semiconductors, and increase shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, further squeezing automakers profit margins.Japans 20-year yield rose 6.5 basis points to 3.815%.On August 17th, the Foshan Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued a notice regarding adjustments to the minimum contribution level for housing provident funds in Foshan. The notice clarifies that starting September 1, 2026, the minimum contribution level for housing provident funds in Foshan will be adjusted. Specifically, the minimum contribution base will be set at the minimum wage standard for employed workers in Foshan, which is 2300 yuan. The minimum monthly contribution for employed workers will be 115 yuan for both the individual and employer contributions, totaling 230 yuan. The minimum monthly contribution for self-employed individuals will also be 230 yuan.August 17th - The upcoming New Zealand general election in November may complicate the Reserve Bank of New Zealands (RBNZ) monetary policy tightening, but ANZ senior strategist David Croy believes the RBNZ is still very likely to raise interest rates in October. The RBNZ has clearly stated its intention to return monetary policy to a neutral level. ANZ estimates the neutral interest rate to be around 3% or slightly above 3%, while the current policy rate is 2.50%. Croy stated that with policy remaining stimulative and inflation above target, there is no reason for the RBNZ to pause rate hikes. He believes the current situation is that the RBNZ needs to find a reason not to raise rates in October.On August 17, Belgorod Oblasts acting governor, Shuvaev, posted on social media that a village in the Valuisky district of the oblast was attacked by Ukrainian forces, resulting in 6 deaths and 4 injuries.

June Gold Buyers May Face Difficulties at $1987.60

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:14

The market's strength is being fueled by demand for a hedge against rising inflation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lessening pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike, and the US Dollar's intraday reversal top.

 

June Comex gold futures are currently trading at $1982.70, up $6.60 or 0.33 percent from their previous close. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is currently trading at $184.66, up $0.89 or 0.48 percent from its previous close.

 

Gold is regarded as an inflation hedge and a hedge against geopolitical concerns. However, higher interest rates in the United States would increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion and strengthen the dollar against which it is valued.

 

However, the price action shows that gold buyers are seeking insurance against inflation and are not very concerned about opportunity costs at the moment. Despite all of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and anticipation for aggressive rate hikes, we have yet to witness a shift in the direction of inflation.

 

Gold is likely to remain underpinned for the foreseeable future as long as the inflation arrow continues to point upward and the Ukraine war continues.

 

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Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. A move over the intraday high of $1985.50 reaffirms the uptrend. A break of $1916.20 will revert the major trend to the downside.

 

On the upside, the retracement zone between $1987.60 and $2009.90 is the nearest objective.

 

On the downside, the long-term Fibonacci level at $1958.70 serves as the initial support, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1932.90.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The June Comex gold futures market's path through Wednesday's close is likely to be dictated by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1987.60.

Scenario of Bullishness

A sustained move above $1987.60 will signal that buyers are present. This could provide the necessary momentum for a test of the Fibonacci level at $2009.90. This is a trigger point for an upside acceleration.

Scenario of the Bear

A persistent decline below $1987.60 indicates the existence of sellers. They intend to attempt the formation of a secondary lower top. This, if successful, might result in a break into $1958.70.

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