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On August 20th, it was reported that the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) had maintained zero 7-day reverse repurchase operations for seven consecutive trading days as of August 19th, drawing widespread market attention. Considering the recent liquidity operations of the PBOC, market interest rate trends, and the PBOCs regulatory approach, this author believes that the consecutive zero injections of 7-day reverse repos do not equate to tightening liquidity, but rather reflect the PBOCs refined liquidity management in response to changes in market supply and demand. From an operational perspective, the PBOC has explicitly stated in its recent open market operations announcements that the 7-day reverse repo operation volume was zero "based on the demand from primary dealers in open market operations." Therefore, the direct reason for the zero injection of 7-day reverse repos is the weakening demand from primary dealers.US President Trump: Announced the toughest economic sanctions in history against Iran, which will be an unprecedented economic war and isolation.Artificial Intelligence: 1. OpenAIs revenue reportedly increased by 18% quarter-over-quarter, but losses widened. 2. OpenAI CFO: The company will go public in 2027 or earlier. 3. Trump: Will hold a meeting with people in the field of artificial intelligence next week. 4. Microsofts Chief Marketing Officer for AI, Andrea Mallard, is reportedly leaving the company. 5. AI chip startup Fractile seeks a $6.5 billion valuation after winning an order from Anthropic. 6. Cognition CEO: Reports that SpaceX attempted to acquire Cognition are untrue. 7. OpenAI: Plans to begin rolling out private security processing in September and release a technical white paper. 8. Nvidia plans to invest in AI data labeling company Mercor, with a potential valuation of $20 billion. Integrated Circuits (Chips): 1. Samsungs chip foundry prices reportedly increased by up to 15%. 2. TSMCs advanced packaging CoWoS capacity is in short supply. 3. Competition in the AI chip market intensifies, with Japanese startups shifting their focus to advanced materials. 4. SK Hynix: Will buy 40 trillion won worth of treasury shares to reward shareholders. 5. Reports indicate that Samsung Electronics aims to be the first to complete the development of 1dnm DRAM memory by September this year. Other: 1. my country achieved its first land-based recovery of a rocket. 2. The Change-7 spacecraft and rocket assembly completed vertical transport and will be launched at an opportune time. 3. Moderna/Mercks new cancer vaccine may prevent melanoma recurrence. 4. Japanese trading company Itochu Corporation plans to build 10 data centers in Japan by 2030.On August 20th, a group of four U.S. Senate Democrats, led by Chris Van Hollen, demanded that Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh publicly disclose his conversations with Trump. This follows a Wall Street Journal report that while such calls were not recorded on Warshs schedule, the two had spoken multiple times. The senators argued that withholding information could give the impression that the White House was controlling monetary policy. Last month, Warsh did not directly respond to Van Hollens questioning. The senators demanded that Warsh provide written confirmation of any contact with Trump since taking office, or amend his schedule to disclose such calls. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett downplayed these calls in early August, stating that Trump did not pressure Warsh on interest rate decisions; Trump himself stated that he had only had one brief conversation with Warsh. In contrast, former Federal Reserve Chairman Powell meticulously documented his conversations with Trump and disclosed several face-to-face meetings.On August 20th, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is pushing to end some of Canadas ban on the retail sale of U.S. alcohol, hoping to push for a finalized U.S.-Canada trade agreement. Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston stated that Carney, during a conference call with provincial premiers on Wednesday, urged them to reinstate the sale of U.S. wine and spirits in their local stores once the agreement is finalized. In Canada, provincial governments are responsible for setting rules for the sale and distribution of alcoholic beverages. Last year, in retaliation for tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, most Canadian provinces removed U.S. alcoholic products from their shelves, leading to a significant decline in export sales for U.S. wine and spirits producers. Currently, most provinces maintain their bans on the sale of U.S. alcoholic beverages, including Canadas three most populous provinces—Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. It remains unclear whether the provincial premiers will agree to Carneys request. If they refuse, the preliminary U.S.-Canada trade agreement announced by Trump on Tuesday evening could be at risk. The White House considers ending these bans to be one of the core pillars of any U.S.-Canada trade agreement.

June Gold Buyers May Face Difficulties at $1987.60

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:14

The market's strength is being fueled by demand for a hedge against rising inflation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lessening pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike, and the US Dollar's intraday reversal top.

 

June Comex gold futures are currently trading at $1982.70, up $6.60 or 0.33 percent from their previous close. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is currently trading at $184.66, up $0.89 or 0.48 percent from its previous close.

 

Gold is regarded as an inflation hedge and a hedge against geopolitical concerns. However, higher interest rates in the United States would increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion and strengthen the dollar against which it is valued.

 

However, the price action shows that gold buyers are seeking insurance against inflation and are not very concerned about opportunity costs at the moment. Despite all of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and anticipation for aggressive rate hikes, we have yet to witness a shift in the direction of inflation.

 

Gold is likely to remain underpinned for the foreseeable future as long as the inflation arrow continues to point upward and the Ukraine war continues.

 

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Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. A move over the intraday high of $1985.50 reaffirms the uptrend. A break of $1916.20 will revert the major trend to the downside.

 

On the upside, the retracement zone between $1987.60 and $2009.90 is the nearest objective.

 

On the downside, the long-term Fibonacci level at $1958.70 serves as the initial support, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1932.90.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The June Comex gold futures market's path through Wednesday's close is likely to be dictated by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1987.60.

Scenario of Bullishness

A sustained move above $1987.60 will signal that buyers are present. This could provide the necessary momentum for a test of the Fibonacci level at $2009.90. This is a trigger point for an upside acceleration.

Scenario of the Bear

A persistent decline below $1987.60 indicates the existence of sellers. They intend to attempt the formation of a secondary lower top. This, if successful, might result in a break into $1958.70.