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The SC crude oil futures contract fell by 2.00% during the day, currently trading at 502.70 yuan per barrel.1. EIA report: U.S. crude oil exports increased by 218,000 barrels per day to 3.685 million barrels per day in the week ending July 31. Commercial crude oil inventories, excluding strategic reserves, increased by 2.479 million barrels to 407 million barrels, a rise of 0.61%. 2. According to Reuters, the U.S. Treasury Department released details on its website on Wednesday that the U.S. has lifted counterterrorism sanctions on two aircraft and three airlines linked to Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. 3. According to statistics from the Silicon Industry Association, domestic polysilicon production in July was 105,100 tons, while silicon wafer production was 55.26 GW. Inventories increased by 9,600 tons (including imports and exports) in July. As of the end of July, polysilicon industry inventories were approximately 522,000 tons. 4. Guillermo Wade, head of the Argentine Port Industry Chamber of Commerce, said on Wednesday that Argentine grain ports had resumed normal operations after a pilots strike brought the countrys foreign trade to a standstill for about 24 hours. 5. According to the Associated Press, two regional officials told the AP on Wednesday that negotiators from Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on a draft contract, which is now awaiting final approval from Irans Supreme Leader. 6. Data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that private exporters reported selling 120,000 tons of corn to Mexico. Of this, 30,000 tons will be delivered in the 2026/2027 marketing year, and 90,000 tons will be delivered in the 2027/2028 marketing year. 7. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, a 2026 FOMC voting member, said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday that the Fed should now "start gradually raising" interest rates to reduce inflation and avoid the need for larger rate hikes in the future. 8. ADP report: Private employers added 44,000 jobs in July. While hiring was relatively weak across industries in July, wages sent a clear signal. Wage growth for job changers accelerated in July.U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant: One of the highlights of Warshs tenure at the Federal Reserve was watching those stenographers posing as journalists, such as Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal (formerly known as the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece"), reduced to reporting behind-the-scenes gossip about the Fed, because they couldnt produce any real economic or monetary policy analysis without someone feeding them information.Federal Reserves Kashkari: The Fed will see a lot of data ahead of its September meeting.Federal Reserves Kashkari: Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh told me to do what I think is right for the economy.

June Gold Buyers May Face Difficulties at $1987.60

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:14

The market's strength is being fueled by demand for a hedge against rising inflation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lessening pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike, and the US Dollar's intraday reversal top.

 

June Comex gold futures are currently trading at $1982.70, up $6.60 or 0.33 percent from their previous close. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is currently trading at $184.66, up $0.89 or 0.48 percent from its previous close.

 

Gold is regarded as an inflation hedge and a hedge against geopolitical concerns. However, higher interest rates in the United States would increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion and strengthen the dollar against which it is valued.

 

However, the price action shows that gold buyers are seeking insurance against inflation and are not very concerned about opportunity costs at the moment. Despite all of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and anticipation for aggressive rate hikes, we have yet to witness a shift in the direction of inflation.

 

Gold is likely to remain underpinned for the foreseeable future as long as the inflation arrow continues to point upward and the Ukraine war continues.

 

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Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. A move over the intraday high of $1985.50 reaffirms the uptrend. A break of $1916.20 will revert the major trend to the downside.

 

On the upside, the retracement zone between $1987.60 and $2009.90 is the nearest objective.

 

On the downside, the long-term Fibonacci level at $1958.70 serves as the initial support, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1932.90.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The June Comex gold futures market's path through Wednesday's close is likely to be dictated by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1987.60.

Scenario of Bullishness

A sustained move above $1987.60 will signal that buyers are present. This could provide the necessary momentum for a test of the Fibonacci level at $2009.90. This is a trigger point for an upside acceleration.

Scenario of the Bear

A persistent decline below $1987.60 indicates the existence of sellers. They intend to attempt the formation of a secondary lower top. This, if successful, might result in a break into $1958.70.

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