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May 25th - Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell to two-week lows in early Asian trading on Monday, as markets were optimistic that the US and Iran were close to reaching a peace agreement, despite remaining differences on key issues including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Trump said on Saturday that Washington and Iran had "fundamentally agreed" a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, disagreements remain on several thorny issues, and Trump said on Sunday that he had told his representatives not to rush into any agreement with Iran. Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee in Sydney, said, "While there are still many uncertainties and risks surrounding the peace agreement and the Strait of Hormuz, the glimmer of hope will provide some relief to oil prices in the short term." However, analysts expect it will take months for oil shipments through the strait to return to normal and for damaged oil and gas facilities to be repaired.On May 25, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council announced that it will hold a regular press conference at 10:00 a.m. on May 27, 2026, in the press conference hall of the Taiwan Affairs Office, where the spokesperson will answer questions from reporters on recent cross-strait hot issues.U.S. 10-year Treasury futures rose 12 basis points, and 30-year Treasury futures rose 17 basis points.1. According to Ukrainian media citing an Air Force spokesperson, Russia launched a Hazel missile at the Kyiv region of Ukraine. 2. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that in response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure, the Russian military used multiple types of missiles, including Hazel, Iskander, Kinzhal, and Zircon, as well as attack drones, to strike Ukrainian military targets, excluding civilian infrastructure. 3. The Ukrainian Air Force stated that Russia used 600 drones and 90 missiles to attack Ukraine. 4. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that the recent Russian attacks have injured at least 83 people, with others killed. 5. Leaders of several European countries condemned Russias use of the Hazel missile against Ukraine. 6. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) stated that its Alpha Special Operations Center attacked a fuel pumping station in Vladimir Oblast, Russia. 7. A Russian diplomat stated that recommendations have been drafted regarding the 27-point plan proposed by the US for resolving the Ukrainian crisis and are ready to be submitted. 8. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Karas: Next week, EU foreign ministers will discuss how to increase international pressure on Russia.The Shenzhou-23 astronaut crew successfully entered the "Tiangong" space station, marking the eighth "space reunion" of Chinese astronauts.

June Gold Buyers May Face Difficulties at $1987.60

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:14

The market's strength is being fueled by demand for a hedge against rising inflation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lessening pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike, and the US Dollar's intraday reversal top.

 

June Comex gold futures are currently trading at $1982.70, up $6.60 or 0.33 percent from their previous close. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is currently trading at $184.66, up $0.89 or 0.48 percent from its previous close.

 

Gold is regarded as an inflation hedge and a hedge against geopolitical concerns. However, higher interest rates in the United States would increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion and strengthen the dollar against which it is valued.

 

However, the price action shows that gold buyers are seeking insurance against inflation and are not very concerned about opportunity costs at the moment. Despite all of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and anticipation for aggressive rate hikes, we have yet to witness a shift in the direction of inflation.

 

Gold is likely to remain underpinned for the foreseeable future as long as the inflation arrow continues to point upward and the Ukraine war continues.

 

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Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. A move over the intraday high of $1985.50 reaffirms the uptrend. A break of $1916.20 will revert the major trend to the downside.

 

On the upside, the retracement zone between $1987.60 and $2009.90 is the nearest objective.

 

On the downside, the long-term Fibonacci level at $1958.70 serves as the initial support, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1932.90.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The June Comex gold futures market's path through Wednesday's close is likely to be dictated by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1987.60.

Scenario of Bullishness

A sustained move above $1987.60 will signal that buyers are present. This could provide the necessary momentum for a test of the Fibonacci level at $2009.90. This is a trigger point for an upside acceleration.

Scenario of the Bear

A persistent decline below $1987.60 indicates the existence of sellers. They intend to attempt the formation of a secondary lower top. This, if successful, might result in a break into $1958.70.

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