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July 15th - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the national online retail sales of goods and services reached 10,071.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Among them, online retail sales of goods reached 6,429.6 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%; within online retail sales of goods, food, clothing, and daily necessities increased by 16.8%, 6.2%, and 1.3% respectively. Online retail sales of services reached 3,641.9 billion yuan, an increase of 6.0%.According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, investment in high-tech industries increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with investment in the aviation, spacecraft and equipment manufacturing, computer and office equipment manufacturing, and information services industries increasing by 23.3%, 8.1%, and 15.5% year-on-year, respectively.July 15th - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, by location of business, urban retail sales of consumer goods reached 21,550.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%; rural retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,321.6 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%. In June, urban retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,684.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%; rural retail sales of consumer goods reached 584.7 billion yuan, an increase of 2.1%. By consumption type, in the first half of the year, retail sales of goods reached 22,046.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%; catering revenue reached 2,825.5 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8%. In June, retail sales of goods reached 3,792.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; catering revenue reached 476.7 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2%. By retail format, in the first half of the year, among retail enterprises above the designated size, convenience stores and supermarkets saw year-on-year increases of 6.6% and 3.8% respectively; specialty stores, department stores, and brand specialty stores saw decreases of 1.5%, 2.1%, and 8.7% respectively.According to the National Bureau of Statistics, private fixed asset investment fell by 8.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year. On a month-on-month basis, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) fell by 0.37% in June.July 15th - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June, by industry, investment in the primary sector reached 460 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; investment in the secondary sector reached 8.312 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.1%; and investment in the tertiary sector reached 13.8649 trillion yuan, a decrease of 8.4%. Industrial investment decreased by 1.1% year-on-year. Among them, investment in mining increased by 5.9%, investment in manufacturing decreased by 1.2%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water decreased by 2.7%. Infrastructure investment decreased by 2.4% year-on-year. Among them, investment in information transmission increased by 25.6%, investment in water transportation increased by 19.8%, and investment in air transportation increased by 11.0%.

June Gold Buyers May Face Difficulties at $1987.60

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:14

The market's strength is being fueled by demand for a hedge against rising inflation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lessening pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike, and the US Dollar's intraday reversal top.

 

June Comex gold futures are currently trading at $1982.70, up $6.60 or 0.33 percent from their previous close. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is currently trading at $184.66, up $0.89 or 0.48 percent from its previous close.

 

Gold is regarded as an inflation hedge and a hedge against geopolitical concerns. However, higher interest rates in the United States would increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion and strengthen the dollar against which it is valued.

 

However, the price action shows that gold buyers are seeking insurance against inflation and are not very concerned about opportunity costs at the moment. Despite all of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and anticipation for aggressive rate hikes, we have yet to witness a shift in the direction of inflation.

 

Gold is likely to remain underpinned for the foreseeable future as long as the inflation arrow continues to point upward and the Ukraine war continues.

 

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Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. A move over the intraday high of $1985.50 reaffirms the uptrend. A break of $1916.20 will revert the major trend to the downside.

 

On the upside, the retracement zone between $1987.60 and $2009.90 is the nearest objective.

 

On the downside, the long-term Fibonacci level at $1958.70 serves as the initial support, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1932.90.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The June Comex gold futures market's path through Wednesday's close is likely to be dictated by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1987.60.

Scenario of Bullishness

A sustained move above $1987.60 will signal that buyers are present. This could provide the necessary momentum for a test of the Fibonacci level at $2009.90. This is a trigger point for an upside acceleration.

Scenario of the Bear

A persistent decline below $1987.60 indicates the existence of sellers. They intend to attempt the formation of a secondary lower top. This, if successful, might result in a break into $1958.70.

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