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On March 12, Deepali Bhargava, Head of Research for Asia Pacific at ING, wrote in a report that the impact of rising oil prices on Asia will be uneven. Thailand, the Philippines, and South Korea are likely to be hit hardest, due to their weak buffers, rapid price transmission, and heavy reliance on imports, respectively. She stated, "India and China benefit from built-in shock absorbers because more than half of their energy supply still comes from coal." She pointed out that regions like Singapore appear best positioned to withstand rising oil prices should disruptions escalate. This is because they have relatively strong fiscal positions, healthier current account dynamics, and are better able to provide targeted support.Traders said the Reserve Bank of India is likely to sell dollars to support the rupee, given the surge in oil prices.On March 12th, it was observed on Alibabas judicial auction platform that several equity stakes in banks such as Jiujiang Bank and Guangdong Huaxing Bank, valued at over 100 million yuan, were recently listed again, ultimately entering the disposal process after multiple failed auctions. According to JD.coms asset trading platform, several more bank equity auctions exceeding 100 million yuan have recently been added, including approximately 223 million shares of Guangfa Bank held by Jiangsu Sugang Group, which will be auctioned in early April with a starting price of 784 million yuan, making it the highest single bank equity auction listed this year. Industry analysts point out that "in the short term, the market for auctioning equity in small and medium-sized banks will continue to be sluggish, and may exhibit characteristics of deepening discounts and reduced transaction volume." Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of the China Enterprise Capital Alliance, believes that from the perspective of industry development patterns, the "winter" in the auction of equity in small and medium-sized banks is a concentrated release of risks accumulated from the past extensive development model. The key to breaking the deadlock lies not in waiting for the market to recover, but in restoring investment value to the equity of small and medium-sized banks through substantial risk clearing, governance restructuring, and mechanism innovation.March 12 - According to CNBC, the International Energy Agencys (IEA) plan to release the largest oil reserves in history sends a clear signal that the energy market believes the war with Iran may last far longer than expected. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, stated that some in the market interpret the IEAs action as indicating the conflict could last for weeks. Saul Kavonic, energy analyst at MST Marquee, also believes the scale of the release highlights the severity of the oil shortage risk, suggesting the IEA believes the war is unlikely to end quickly. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, said traders realize the release plan can only compensate for a small portion of the shortage caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and oil prices are likely to continue rising unless a ceasefire is achieved or Irans military offensive capabilities decline, allowing tanker shipments to resume.On March 12th, WeChat officially announced a new feature: users can now click "Ignore" on unwanted WeChat voice/video calls. The pop-up will disappear after clicking, and the recipient will not receive a "rejected" message. WeChat video calls also support screen locking, a feature that is being rolled out gradually. Furthermore, WeChat voice-to-text now supports simultaneous interpretation, and currently supports 18 languages, including Chinese.

June Gold Buyers May Face Difficulties at $1987.60

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:14

The market's strength is being fueled by demand for a hedge against rising inflation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lessening pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike, and the US Dollar's intraday reversal top.

 

June Comex gold futures are currently trading at $1982.70, up $6.60 or 0.33 percent from their previous close. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is currently trading at $184.66, up $0.89 or 0.48 percent from its previous close.

 

Gold is regarded as an inflation hedge and a hedge against geopolitical concerns. However, higher interest rates in the United States would increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion and strengthen the dollar against which it is valued.

 

However, the price action shows that gold buyers are seeking insurance against inflation and are not very concerned about opportunity costs at the moment. Despite all of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and anticipation for aggressive rate hikes, we have yet to witness a shift in the direction of inflation.

 

Gold is likely to remain underpinned for the foreseeable future as long as the inflation arrow continues to point upward and the Ukraine war continues.

 

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Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. A move over the intraday high of $1985.50 reaffirms the uptrend. A break of $1916.20 will revert the major trend to the downside.

 

On the upside, the retracement zone between $1987.60 and $2009.90 is the nearest objective.

 

On the downside, the long-term Fibonacci level at $1958.70 serves as the initial support, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1932.90.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The June Comex gold futures market's path through Wednesday's close is likely to be dictated by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1987.60.

Scenario of Bullishness

A sustained move above $1987.60 will signal that buyers are present. This could provide the necessary momentum for a test of the Fibonacci level at $2009.90. This is a trigger point for an upside acceleration.

Scenario of the Bear

A persistent decline below $1987.60 indicates the existence of sellers. They intend to attempt the formation of a secondary lower top. This, if successful, might result in a break into $1958.70.