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Dallas Fed President Logan, a 2026 FOMC voting member, will speak in ten minutes.On April 2nd, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that although US inflation is expected to fall back to the Federal Reserves 2% target in the first half of next year, policymakers have little room for interest rate cuts this year. According to the IMFs annual assessment of the US economy, IMF staff anticipate only one opportunity for a rate cut by the end of 2026. "Overall, staff believe there is limited room for policy rate cuts over the next year. More significant monetary easing would require a significant deterioration in the labor market outlook and no increase in inflationary pressures, given the recent rise in oil and commodity prices leading to upward inflation expectations," the IMF Executive Director noted in a separate statement. Given the Feds current near-neutral policy, "there is limited room for rate cuts in 2026, especially considering rising energy prices, the transmission effects of core inflation, and the upside risks to global commodity prices, which could further delay the achievement of the inflation target."The S&P 500 Energy Index opened 2.1% higher.On April 2nd, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf stated that seven million Iranians are ready to resist any US ground invasion of Iran. Ghalibaf, who has been considered a potential negotiator with the US, has posted a series of online challenges to the US since the start of the conflict. “Currently, in less than a week, a powerful nationwide movement has brought about approximately seven million Iranians to their feet, declaring their readiness to take up arms and defend our country,” Ghalibaf wrote. Iran is a country with a population of approximately 90 million. The source of this figure is unclear, but Iranian state media and SMS propaganda campaigns have been urging citizens to enlist.April 2nd - According to Japanese media reports on the 2nd, due to the protracted conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices, All Nippon Airways (ANA) and Japan Airlines (JAL) will significantly increase fuel surcharges on international routes starting in June. The Japanese aviation industry typically adjusts fuel surcharges every two months. For example, for one-way flights from Japan to Europe and North America, compared to prices in April and May, ANA will increase its fuel surcharge by 23,100 yen (approximately 159 yen to 1 US dollar) to 55,000 yen starting in June, while JAL will increase its fuel surcharge by 21,000 yen to 50,000 yen, both increases exceeding 70%.

June Gold Buyers May Face Difficulties at $1987.60

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:14

The market's strength is being fueled by demand for a hedge against rising inflation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lessening pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike, and the US Dollar's intraday reversal top.

 

June Comex gold futures are currently trading at $1982.70, up $6.60 or 0.33 percent from their previous close. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is currently trading at $184.66, up $0.89 or 0.48 percent from its previous close.

 

Gold is regarded as an inflation hedge and a hedge against geopolitical concerns. However, higher interest rates in the United States would increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion and strengthen the dollar against which it is valued.

 

However, the price action shows that gold buyers are seeking insurance against inflation and are not very concerned about opportunity costs at the moment. Despite all of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and anticipation for aggressive rate hikes, we have yet to witness a shift in the direction of inflation.

 

Gold is likely to remain underpinned for the foreseeable future as long as the inflation arrow continues to point upward and the Ukraine war continues.

 

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Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. A move over the intraday high of $1985.50 reaffirms the uptrend. A break of $1916.20 will revert the major trend to the downside.

 

On the upside, the retracement zone between $1987.60 and $2009.90 is the nearest objective.

 

On the downside, the long-term Fibonacci level at $1958.70 serves as the initial support, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1932.90.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The June Comex gold futures market's path through Wednesday's close is likely to be dictated by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1987.60.

Scenario of Bullishness

A sustained move above $1987.60 will signal that buyers are present. This could provide the necessary momentum for a test of the Fibonacci level at $2009.90. This is a trigger point for an upside acceleration.

Scenario of the Bear

A persistent decline below $1987.60 indicates the existence of sellers. They intend to attempt the formation of a secondary lower top. This, if successful, might result in a break into $1958.70.