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April 11 - It was learned on the morning of the 11th local time that talks between Iran and the United States were "very likely" to begin that afternoon in Islamabad. According to information received by Iran, both delegations will first meet separately with the Prime Minister of Pakistan before the formal talks begin.April 11 – The US delegation participating in the US-Iran talks arrived in Pakistan on April 11 local time. Early on the morning of the 11th local time, Pakistani officials confirmed that the US-Iran talks would be held that day at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, to seek a peaceful solution to the current Middle East crisis. The Iranian delegation, led by Speaker of the Iranian Islamic Parliament, Ghalibaf, has also arrived at the Serena Hotel.On April 11th, a Bank of America research report pointed out that a 10% oil price shock in the 1970s would have had a 90 basis point inflationary impact on the United States, while today that impact is approximately 25 basis points. Furthermore, the report noted that the drag on US growth from oil price shocks has also decreased from over 70 basis points in the past to about 5 basis points today. This may be attributed to the reduced US dependence on oil and the shale oil boom since the 2010s, which has made the US a net energy exporter.On April 11th, at the High-Level Forum on the Development of Intelligent Electric Vehicles (2026), NIO Chairman Li Bin stated that batteries and chips currently account for over 50% of the cost of intelligent electric vehicles, with very high costs associated with production capacity, verification, and production organization. This situation is due to two main reasons: First, the lack of standardized battery cell specifications restricts cost, efficiency, and market responsiveness. He suggested promoting battery cell standardization. Second, there are too many types of chips. Chips should be standardized, and relevant departments should organize automakers to unify chip types as soon as possible, developing interchangeable standards for each type. This would not only benefit the adoption of domestically produced chips in vehicles but also help reduce costs across the industry.April 11th - A Bank of America research report released on April 10th points out that since the 1970s, the global economys dependence on oil has gradually decreased: today, the amount of oil needed to produce the same level of GDP is only one-third of what it was in the 1970s. The OPEC crisis and the subsequent oil shock were once considered a severe stagflation shock. But today, economies are much more resilient to energy shocks of similar magnitude.

June Gold Buyers May Face Difficulties at $1987.60

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:14

The market's strength is being fueled by demand for a hedge against rising inflation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lessening pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike, and the US Dollar's intraday reversal top.

 

June Comex gold futures are currently trading at $1982.70, up $6.60 or 0.33 percent from their previous close. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is currently trading at $184.66, up $0.89 or 0.48 percent from its previous close.

 

Gold is regarded as an inflation hedge and a hedge against geopolitical concerns. However, higher interest rates in the United States would increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion and strengthen the dollar against which it is valued.

 

However, the price action shows that gold buyers are seeking insurance against inflation and are not very concerned about opportunity costs at the moment. Despite all of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and anticipation for aggressive rate hikes, we have yet to witness a shift in the direction of inflation.

 

Gold is likely to remain underpinned for the foreseeable future as long as the inflation arrow continues to point upward and the Ukraine war continues.

 

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Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. A move over the intraday high of $1985.50 reaffirms the uptrend. A break of $1916.20 will revert the major trend to the downside.

 

On the upside, the retracement zone between $1987.60 and $2009.90 is the nearest objective.

 

On the downside, the long-term Fibonacci level at $1958.70 serves as the initial support, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1932.90.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The June Comex gold futures market's path through Wednesday's close is likely to be dictated by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1987.60.

Scenario of Bullishness

A sustained move above $1987.60 will signal that buyers are present. This could provide the necessary momentum for a test of the Fibonacci level at $2009.90. This is a trigger point for an upside acceleration.

Scenario of the Bear

A persistent decline below $1987.60 indicates the existence of sellers. They intend to attempt the formation of a secondary lower top. This, if successful, might result in a break into $1958.70.