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December 4th - For many emerging market currencies in Asia, the widely anticipated December rate cut by the Federal Reserve may be timely. The Feds easing of monetary policy will help alleviate downward pressure on the Indian rupee and provide a breather for weaker currencies such as Indonesia, South Korea, and the Philippines. This week, the rupee fell below 90 against the dollar for the first time, while the South Korean won has fallen by more than 4% this quarter. Wee Khoon Chong, Asia Pacific market strategist at BNY Mellon, said, "Further easing by the Fed is likely to support Asian currencies overall." He stated that regional currencies with strong growth momentum and sound fiscal policies, such as the South Korean won, are likely to perform best. On the other hand, he noted that the Indian rupee still faces negative factors including high US tariffs and downside risks to growth, while the Philippine peso will be dragged down by the central banks easing bias. TS Lombard strategists Daniel von Ahlen and Andrea Cicione wrote, "Now is the time to go long on Asian currencies."Korean chip stocks were led by Hanmi Semiconductor, with its share price falling 4.4% to 116,100 won.December 4th - According to Reuters, three Japanese government sources said the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to raise interest rates in December, and the government is expected to tolerate this decision. The sources said the BOJ appears prepared to raise its policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, a signal echoed by Governor Kazuo Ueda in his speech on Monday. This would be the first rate hike since January. One source said, "If the BOJ wants to raise rates this month, let them decide. Thats the governments position." He added that a rate hike this month is almost certain. Ueda stated on Monday that the BOJ would consider the "pros and cons" of a rate hike this month, indicating a high probability of a rate increase at its December 18-19 meeting. These comments have led the market to price in an approximately 80% probability of a December rate hike, although some market participants are watching how the dovish government of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi might react. Market focus may shift to the BOJs wording regarding the ultimate extent to which it will raise rates, a topic on which Ueda remains ambiguous.December 4th - Hong Kong Investment Corporation (HKIC) released its 2024 annual report today, showing that as of June 30, 2025, every HK$1 invested by HKIC has attracted over HK$6 in long-term market capital. In the past two years, two of its portfolio companies have already listed in Hong Kong, and more than ten others submitted listing applications earlier this year. Among these companies, five were already unicorns before their IPOs, forming a "tiered reservoir" and achieving a virtuous cycle. HKIC CEO Chen Jiaqi stated that in 2025, the company will further deepen its involvement and progress, including leading new investment rounds, to help these companies seize market opportunities and "go global."Sources say the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in December, and the Japanese government is likely to tolerate it.

June Gold Buyers May Face Difficulties at $1987.60

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:14

The market's strength is being fueled by demand for a hedge against rising inflation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lessening pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike, and the US Dollar's intraday reversal top.

 

June Comex gold futures are currently trading at $1982.70, up $6.60 or 0.33 percent from their previous close. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is currently trading at $184.66, up $0.89 or 0.48 percent from its previous close.

 

Gold is regarded as an inflation hedge and a hedge against geopolitical concerns. However, higher interest rates in the United States would increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion and strengthen the dollar against which it is valued.

 

However, the price action shows that gold buyers are seeking insurance against inflation and are not very concerned about opportunity costs at the moment. Despite all of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and anticipation for aggressive rate hikes, we have yet to witness a shift in the direction of inflation.

 

Gold is likely to remain underpinned for the foreseeable future as long as the inflation arrow continues to point upward and the Ukraine war continues.

 

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Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. A move over the intraday high of $1985.50 reaffirms the uptrend. A break of $1916.20 will revert the major trend to the downside.

 

On the upside, the retracement zone between $1987.60 and $2009.90 is the nearest objective.

 

On the downside, the long-term Fibonacci level at $1958.70 serves as the initial support, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1932.90.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The June Comex gold futures market's path through Wednesday's close is likely to be dictated by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1987.60.

Scenario of Bullishness

A sustained move above $1987.60 will signal that buyers are present. This could provide the necessary momentum for a test of the Fibonacci level at $2009.90. This is a trigger point for an upside acceleration.

Scenario of the Bear

A persistent decline below $1987.60 indicates the existence of sellers. They intend to attempt the formation of a secondary lower top. This, if successful, might result in a break into $1958.70.