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ECB Governing Council member Dorenz: The inflation situation has not yet been resolved, and there are sufficient reasons to raise interest rates in September. 1. Indias Ministry of Food stated in a press release, "The government has observed that in some cases, sugar sold by sugar mills at the beginning of the month is only picked up or shipped by buyers at the end of the month. This practice exacerbates artificial shortages in the market. To address this issue and ensure timely access to the market, the government has decided to implement a bi-weekly sugar allocation system starting in September, replacing the existing monthly quota system." 2. On August 28, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a ministerial meeting, emphasizing the need to focus on autumn grain field management and agricultural disaster prevention, mitigation, and relief, striving for a bumper harvest and ensuring the achievement of the target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin (600 million tons) of grain output. The meeting also stressed the importance of strengthening and improving macro-control of the agricultural industry, focusing on stabilizing the production of livestock products such as hogs, and promoting reasonable prices. 3. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data showing that private exporters reported selling 182,000 tons of soybeans to China, 226,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, 100,000 tons of soybean meal to Germany, and 100,000 tons of soybean meal to the Netherlands, all for delivery in the 2026/2027 marketing year. 4. Fed Chair Hamack: The Fed should raise interest rates; waiting will only bring pain. He does not believe financial conditions are tight. 5. Fed Chair Warsh warned that inflation has not shown a meaningful slowdown and said policymakers must be confident that inflation is moving in the right direction, otherwise the central bank "has more work to do." Warsh reiterated that the Fed will bring inflation back to its 2% target. He stated that this is a clear and fixed target. Warsh also stated that current financial conditions are not restrictive, and interest rates are the Feds "primary tool" for fulfilling its mandate. 6. US short-term interest rate futures fell, with market pricing indicating increased bets on a Fed rate hike following Warshs remarks. 7. Fed Chair Warsh stated, "Although the PCE and CPI data released this summer were better than expected, they did not convince me that the underlying trend of inflation has shown a meaningful improvement." "Market prices reflect the markets belief that we will achieve price stability. I can assure you that the markets judgment is correct." Warsh then stated that with inflation above 2%, the Feds "primary focus right now should be prices." 8. According to the Associated Press, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh said on Friday that inflation remains too high. He hinted that the central bank may need to raise interest rates in the coming months to reduce inflation. This statement more clearly reflects his view on the economic situation than his previous remarks.On August 28th, George Catrambo, Head of Fixed Income for the Americas at DWS, said during a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh, "Whatever you call it, this is exactly the forward guidance the market was expecting at the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting." "Im listening to a Fed chairman who is likely to tighten monetary policy. Hes trying to maintain a balance in his speech, but the Fed will most likely raise rates."According to documents from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Nanjing Nuoling Biotechnology Co., Ltd. has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.On August 28th, Omar Sharif, an analyst at inflation research firm Inflation Insights, stated, "Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh gave the market what it wanted: a more detailed explanation of his views on current economic data, especially inflation data. Of course, he didnt reveal any potential future policy actions. In that sense, it seems to be a win-win situation for both Warsh and the market."

June Gold Buyers May Face Difficulties at $1987.60

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:14

The market's strength is being fueled by demand for a hedge against rising inflation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lessening pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike, and the US Dollar's intraday reversal top.

 

June Comex gold futures are currently trading at $1982.70, up $6.60 or 0.33 percent from their previous close. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is currently trading at $184.66, up $0.89 or 0.48 percent from its previous close.

 

Gold is regarded as an inflation hedge and a hedge against geopolitical concerns. However, higher interest rates in the United States would increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion and strengthen the dollar against which it is valued.

 

However, the price action shows that gold buyers are seeking insurance against inflation and are not very concerned about opportunity costs at the moment. Despite all of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and anticipation for aggressive rate hikes, we have yet to witness a shift in the direction of inflation.

 

Gold is likely to remain underpinned for the foreseeable future as long as the inflation arrow continues to point upward and the Ukraine war continues.

 

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Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. A move over the intraday high of $1985.50 reaffirms the uptrend. A break of $1916.20 will revert the major trend to the downside.

 

On the upside, the retracement zone between $1987.60 and $2009.90 is the nearest objective.

 

On the downside, the long-term Fibonacci level at $1958.70 serves as the initial support, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1932.90.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The June Comex gold futures market's path through Wednesday's close is likely to be dictated by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1987.60.

Scenario of Bullishness

A sustained move above $1987.60 will signal that buyers are present. This could provide the necessary momentum for a test of the Fibonacci level at $2009.90. This is a trigger point for an upside acceleration.

Scenario of the Bear

A persistent decline below $1987.60 indicates the existence of sellers. They intend to attempt the formation of a secondary lower top. This, if successful, might result in a break into $1958.70.