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August 7th - German industrial production rose for the third consecutive month, showing that Europes largest economy is weathering the drag from the war with Iran. Data released by the German Federal Statistical Office on Friday showed that German industrial output rose 0.2% in June compared to the previous month. This figure is lower than the revised 0.7% growth rate in the previous month, but in line with the median forecast of economists. The main driver of industrial growth was the automotive sector. Car production rose 3.6% in June compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, another set of data showed that German exports expanded for the fifth consecutive month, and imports also increased significantly. This brought Germanys trade surplus to €15.4 billion (approximately $17.8 billion), down from €19.3 billion in May. The German Ministry of Economic Affairs stated in a statement: "Despite external economic pressures, manufacturing output showed considerable resilience in the last quarter."August 7th - According to the China Earthquake Networks Center, a magnitude 4.9 earthquake struck Gao County, Yibin City, Sichuan Province (28.51°N, 104.67°E) at 13:08 on August 7, 2026, with a focal depth of 6 kilometers. Following the earthquake, the China Earthquake Administration quickly activated a Level IV emergency response, coordinating with the China Earthquake Networks Center and the Sichuan Provincial Earthquake Administration to conduct emergency response, requiring relevant units to hold joint consultations, strengthen seismic monitoring and analysis, and promptly report relevant information.The UKs seasonally adjusted Halifax house price index rose 0.1% year-on-year in July, below the expected 0.4% and the previous reading of 0.6%.The UKs seasonally adjusted Halifax house price index rose 0% month-on-month in July, compared to a forecast of 0.1% and a previous reading of 0.2%.Note: The UKs seasonally adjusted Halifax house price index for July has not yet been released.

June Gold Buyers May Face Difficulties at $1987.60

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:14

The market's strength is being fueled by demand for a hedge against rising inflation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lessening pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike, and the US Dollar's intraday reversal top.

 

June Comex gold futures are currently trading at $1982.70, up $6.60 or 0.33 percent from their previous close. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is currently trading at $184.66, up $0.89 or 0.48 percent from its previous close.

 

Gold is regarded as an inflation hedge and a hedge against geopolitical concerns. However, higher interest rates in the United States would increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion and strengthen the dollar against which it is valued.

 

However, the price action shows that gold buyers are seeking insurance against inflation and are not very concerned about opportunity costs at the moment. Despite all of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and anticipation for aggressive rate hikes, we have yet to witness a shift in the direction of inflation.

 

Gold is likely to remain underpinned for the foreseeable future as long as the inflation arrow continues to point upward and the Ukraine war continues.

 

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Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. A move over the intraday high of $1985.50 reaffirms the uptrend. A break of $1916.20 will revert the major trend to the downside.

 

On the upside, the retracement zone between $1987.60 and $2009.90 is the nearest objective.

 

On the downside, the long-term Fibonacci level at $1958.70 serves as the initial support, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1932.90.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The June Comex gold futures market's path through Wednesday's close is likely to be dictated by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1987.60.

Scenario of Bullishness

A sustained move above $1987.60 will signal that buyers are present. This could provide the necessary momentum for a test of the Fibonacci level at $2009.90. This is a trigger point for an upside acceleration.

Scenario of the Bear

A persistent decline below $1987.60 indicates the existence of sellers. They intend to attempt the formation of a secondary lower top. This, if successful, might result in a break into $1958.70.

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