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July 1st - Six sources revealed that the European Central Bank (ECB) is considering doubling the required reserve ratio for banks to hold in interest-free accounts. This move would reduce the central banks own interest expenses and mitigate the side effects of its anti-inflationary measures. The sources said the potential increase is being discussed among ECB policymakers, with a proposed minimum reserve requirement to be raised from 1% to 2% of bank customer deposits and other funding sources. This would help central banks in cash-rich countries like Germany reduce losses from paying interest on bank deposits exceeding legal requirements. Over the past decade, these excess deposits have grown to trillions of euros through bond-buying stimulus programs. This move would also absorb some excess liquidity and advance the ECBs efforts to guide banks away from free cash, an issue that will be reconsidered in this years so-called framework review. The sources said a decision on the potential measure is expected before autumn. It is understood that internal discussions within the ECB are still in their early stages, and the Governing Council has not yet formally discussed the matter.July 1st - A survey reveals that global central banks are accelerating adjustments to their foreign exchange reserve structures as US political and geopolitical risks rise. A survey of 74 central banks by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) in London shows that for the first time, "the number of central banks planning to reduce their dollar holdings over the next decade exceeds those planning to increase them," reflecting a decline in the dollars attractiveness. The report points out that geopolitical factors have become one of the main reasons influencing the willingness to invest in the dollar, coupled with rising uncertainty in US trade policy, driving a global trend of "de-dollarization." Despite this, the dollar still accounts for approximately 58% of global central bank reserves and will maintain its dominant position in the short term. Meanwhile, central bank demand for gold has increased significantly, with a record proportion of surveyed institutions planning to increase their gold holdings to hedge against geopolitical risks and financial system instability. Furthermore, the euro and the renminbi are also gaining attractiveness, receiving more attention in international trade and diversification, respectively, while some emerging market currencies are also favored. Overall, the global reserve system is showing a slow trend of diversification; the dollars dominance remains, but its marginal advantage is declining.The Federal Reserve accepted a total of $26.9 billion from 10 counterparties in its fixed-rate reverse repurchase operations.Sources at the European Central Bank: Policymakers are discussing raising the minimum reserve requirement ratio for banks from 1% to 2%.European Central Bank sources say a decision on minimum reserve requirements is expected in the fall.

June Gold Buyers May Face Difficulties at $1987.60

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:14

The market's strength is being fueled by demand for a hedge against rising inflation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lessening pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike, and the US Dollar's intraday reversal top.

 

June Comex gold futures are currently trading at $1982.70, up $6.60 or 0.33 percent from their previous close. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is currently trading at $184.66, up $0.89 or 0.48 percent from its previous close.

 

Gold is regarded as an inflation hedge and a hedge against geopolitical concerns. However, higher interest rates in the United States would increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion and strengthen the dollar against which it is valued.

 

However, the price action shows that gold buyers are seeking insurance against inflation and are not very concerned about opportunity costs at the moment. Despite all of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and anticipation for aggressive rate hikes, we have yet to witness a shift in the direction of inflation.

 

Gold is likely to remain underpinned for the foreseeable future as long as the inflation arrow continues to point upward and the Ukraine war continues.

 

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Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. A move over the intraday high of $1985.50 reaffirms the uptrend. A break of $1916.20 will revert the major trend to the downside.

 

On the upside, the retracement zone between $1987.60 and $2009.90 is the nearest objective.

 

On the downside, the long-term Fibonacci level at $1958.70 serves as the initial support, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1932.90.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The June Comex gold futures market's path through Wednesday's close is likely to be dictated by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1987.60.

Scenario of Bullishness

A sustained move above $1987.60 will signal that buyers are present. This could provide the necessary momentum for a test of the Fibonacci level at $2009.90. This is a trigger point for an upside acceleration.

Scenario of the Bear

A persistent decline below $1987.60 indicates the existence of sellers. They intend to attempt the formation of a secondary lower top. This, if successful, might result in a break into $1958.70.