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Futures News, August 12th: Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) precious metals and non-ferrous metals warehouse receipts and changes on August 12th: 1. Copper futures warehouse receipts: 24,131 tons, an increase of 953 tons compared to the previous trading day; 2. Aluminum futures warehouse receipts: 303,168 tons, a decrease of 1,023 tons compared to the previous trading day; 3. Zinc futures warehouse receipts: 110,721 tons, an increase of 396 tons compared to the previous trading day; 4. Lead futures warehouse receipts: 61,228 tons, an increase of 301 tons compared to the previous trading day; 5. Nickel futures warehouse receipts: 100,769 tons, a decrease of 158 tons compared to the previous trading day. 6. Tin futures warehouse receipts: 5,199 tons, up 136 tons from the previous trading day; 7. Alumina futures warehouse receipts: 264,286 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 8. Alumina futures factory warehouse receipts: 9,300 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 9. Gold futures warehouse receipts: 113,676 kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; 10. Silver futures warehouse receipts: 1,305,953 kg, up 5,003 kg from the previous trading day; 11. International copper futures warehouse receipts: 5,651 tons, down 251 tons from the previous trading day.US July Seasonally Adjusted CPI MoM (Previous: -0.4%; Expected: 0.1%) 1. Capital Economics: +0.0%; Citigroup: +0.0%; Mizuho Securities: +0.0%; ANZ: +0.1%; Bank of America Merrill Lynch: +0.1%; 2. Tesco Bank: +0.1%; Commerzbank: +0.1%; Goldman Sachs: +0.1%; HSBC: +0.1%; Morgan Stanley: +0.1%; 3. JPMorgan Chase: +0.1%; Pansen Macro: +0.1%; Moodys Analytics: +0.1%; ING: +0.1%; NatWest: +0.1%; 4. Nomura Securities: +0.1%; Oxford Economics: +0.1%; RBC: +0.1%; Sumitomo Mitsui: +0.1%; Lloyds Banking Group: +0.1%; 5. Nordea: +0.1%; Steifel: +0.1%; UBS: +0.1%; Vanguard: +0.1%; Spartan Capital: +0.1%; 6. Wells Fargo: +0.1%; Montreal: +0.2%; BNP Paribas: +0.2%; Berenberg: +0.2%; Barclays: +0.2%; 7. High Frequency Economics: +0.2%; Scotiabank: +0.2%; Societe Generale: +0.2%; Danske Bank: +0.2%; Deutsche Bank: +0.2%; 8. Standard Chartered: +0.2%; TD Securities: +0.2%; UniCredit: +0.2%; Westpac: +0.2%; Jefferies: +0.3%. US July seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate (previous value: +0.0%, expected value: +0.2%) 1. Mizuho Securities: +0.1%; Sparta Capital: +0.1%; ANZ: +0.2%; Montreal: +0.2%; BNP Paribas: +0.2%; 2. Bank of America Merrill Lynch: +0.2%; Barclays: +0.2%; CIB: +0.2%; Capital Economics: +0.2%; Citigroup: +0.2%; 3. Commerzbank: +0.2%; Danske Bank: +0.2%; Goldman Sachs: +0.2%; HSBC: +0.2%; Steifelr: +0.2%; 4. ING: +0.2%; Lloyds Banking Group: +0.2%; JPMorgan Chase: +0.2%; Oxford Economics: +0.2%; Wells Fargo: +0.2%; 5. Nomura Securities: +0.2%; Morgan Stanley: +0.2%; Pansen Macro: +0.2%; Sumitomo Mitsui: +0.2%; Nordea: +0.2%; 6. Societe Generale: +0.2%; Westpac: +0.2%; UBS: +0.2%; Standard Chartered: +0.2%; TD Securities: +0.2%; 7. UniCredit: +0.2%; NatWest: +0.2%; Deutsche Bank: +0.3%; Moodys Analytics: +0.3%; Scotiabank: +0.3%.August 12th - Wells Fargo economists predict that the July U.S. CPI report should reinforce the view that the worst of the inflationary impacts from high tariffs and Middle East conflicts have passed. Price increases appear to be driven by a few categories rather than a broad spread of underlying price pressures. However, while the scope of inflationary pressures is narrowing, continued price strength in some sectors suggests that achieving the 2% inflation target may still be a gradual process.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a magnitude 3.6 earthquake occurred at 14:57 on August 12 in Xinghai County, Hainan Prefecture, Qinghai Province (35.39 degrees north latitude, 99.53 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.On Wednesday, August 12, the German DAX 30 index opened 55.72 points higher, or 0.21%, at 26,451.09; the UK FTSE 100 index opened 0.55 points lower, or 0.01%, at 10,843.64; the French CAC 40 index opened 4.19 points higher, or 0.05%, at 8,719.13; the Euro Stoxx 50 index opened 17.93 points higher, or 0.27%, at 6,569.15; the Spanish IBEX 35 index opened 60.38 points higher, or 0.30%, at 20,273.98; and the Italian FTSE MIB index opened 171.79 points higher, or 0.32%, at 53,878.00.

June Gold Buyers May Face Difficulties at $1987.60

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:14

The market's strength is being fueled by demand for a hedge against rising inflation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lessening pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike, and the US Dollar's intraday reversal top.

 

June Comex gold futures are currently trading at $1982.70, up $6.60 or 0.33 percent from their previous close. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is currently trading at $184.66, up $0.89 or 0.48 percent from its previous close.

 

Gold is regarded as an inflation hedge and a hedge against geopolitical concerns. However, higher interest rates in the United States would increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion and strengthen the dollar against which it is valued.

 

However, the price action shows that gold buyers are seeking insurance against inflation and are not very concerned about opportunity costs at the moment. Despite all of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and anticipation for aggressive rate hikes, we have yet to witness a shift in the direction of inflation.

 

Gold is likely to remain underpinned for the foreseeable future as long as the inflation arrow continues to point upward and the Ukraine war continues.

 

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Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. A move over the intraday high of $1985.50 reaffirms the uptrend. A break of $1916.20 will revert the major trend to the downside.

 

On the upside, the retracement zone between $1987.60 and $2009.90 is the nearest objective.

 

On the downside, the long-term Fibonacci level at $1958.70 serves as the initial support, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1932.90.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The June Comex gold futures market's path through Wednesday's close is likely to be dictated by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1987.60.

Scenario of Bullishness

A sustained move above $1987.60 will signal that buyers are present. This could provide the necessary momentum for a test of the Fibonacci level at $2009.90. This is a trigger point for an upside acceleration.

Scenario of the Bear

A persistent decline below $1987.60 indicates the existence of sellers. They intend to attempt the formation of a secondary lower top. This, if successful, might result in a break into $1958.70.