EUR/USD 1.16097
0.106%
Gold 4472.80
0.867%
Oil 92.762
-1.469%
USD/JPY 159.891
-0.116%
GBP/USD 1.34260
0.070%
GBP/JPY 214.676
-0.043%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
June 4th - Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated on Thursday that the Japanese government expects the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to implement appropriate monetary policy in close coordination to achieve a sustainable 2% inflation target driven by wage growth. When asked about BOJ Governor Kazuo Uedas remarks on Wednesday, Kihara declined to comment on specific points, only stating that the government and the BOJ have maintained and will continue to maintain "full communication" on occasions such as the meeting between the BOJ governor and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi last month. "Specific monetary policy measures should be decided by the BOJ," Kihara said at a regular press briefing, reiterating the governments consistent stance towards the central bank.1. Strong Data Drastically Reduces Rate Cut Expectations: The US ADP nonfarm payrolls for May added 122,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, and the May ISM services PMI hit a multi-month high. The US labor market and consumer spending demonstrated remarkable resilience, significantly reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in the short term. 2. Tightening Fears Suppress Valuations: Strong economic fundamentals led several Fed officials to adopt a hawkish stance, exacerbating market concerns about maintaining high interest rates or even restarting rate hikes this year. This directly pushed up both the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, severely suppressing the valuations of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold and silver. 3. Unpredictable Geopolitical Situation: The Middle East geopolitical situation remains volatile. While there have been reports of progress in US-Iran negotiations, significant differences remain between the two sides on core issues, leading to frequent sporadic conflicts. The sharp fluctuations in risk aversion have increased the two-way volatility risk in precious metals markets. 4. Industry Dynamics and Capital Outflows: Russian officials predict gold production will reach 480-500 tons in 2026, far exceeding institutional expectations, with the increased supply putting pressure on gold prices. In terms of capital flows, the worlds largest gold ETF (SPDR) has recently seen outflows, indicating a lack of upward momentum in the short term. 5. Platinum and Palladium End-User Demand Under Pressure: In addition to macroeconomic pressures, high oil prices and the accelerated electrification of automobiles continue to squeeze the market share of traditional gasoline vehicle catalysts, leading to significant pressure on palladium demand. The overall decline in platinum and palladium prices has exceeded that of gold and silver. 6. Zhengxin Futures View: The ADP Non-Farm Payrolls report reflects the resilience of the US labor market, providing more confidence for the Federal Reserve to maintain its tightening stance. Gold will mainly be affected by macroeconomic factors in the short term, maintaining a weak and volatile trend. However, in the long term, global de-dollarization and strategic reserve demand will continue to provide strong support for gold prices. 7. Nanhua Futures View: With no easing signals on the monetary policy front and even rising expectations of interest rate hikes, precious metals lack significant upward momentum. However, given the prolonged period of high oil prices, it is crucial to pay close attention to signs of economic slowdown. If a "stagflation trade" begins, it will become a key narrative for the next gold price increase. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market data and is for reference only; it does not constitute investment advice.)TSMC (TSM.N) CEO: Taiwan has TSMC’s best talent, core R&D and largest production base.TSMC (TSM.N) CEO: Global capacity expansion is primarily driven by customer demand and local government support.Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara: The government maintains close communication with the Bank of Japan regarding economic and financial trends, and will continue to do so.

June Gold Buyers May Face Difficulties at $1987.60

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:14

The market's strength is being fueled by demand for a hedge against rising inflation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lessening pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike, and the US Dollar's intraday reversal top.

 

June Comex gold futures are currently trading at $1982.70, up $6.60 or 0.33 percent from their previous close. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is currently trading at $184.66, up $0.89 or 0.48 percent from its previous close.

 

Gold is regarded as an inflation hedge and a hedge against geopolitical concerns. However, higher interest rates in the United States would increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion and strengthen the dollar against which it is valued.

 

However, the price action shows that gold buyers are seeking insurance against inflation and are not very concerned about opportunity costs at the moment. Despite all of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and anticipation for aggressive rate hikes, we have yet to witness a shift in the direction of inflation.

 

Gold is likely to remain underpinned for the foreseeable future as long as the inflation arrow continues to point upward and the Ukraine war continues.

 

image.png 

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. A move over the intraday high of $1985.50 reaffirms the uptrend. A break of $1916.20 will revert the major trend to the downside.

 

On the upside, the retracement zone between $1987.60 and $2009.90 is the nearest objective.

 

On the downside, the long-term Fibonacci level at $1958.70 serves as the initial support, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1932.90.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The June Comex gold futures market's path through Wednesday's close is likely to be dictated by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1987.60.

Scenario of Bullishness

A sustained move above $1987.60 will signal that buyers are present. This could provide the necessary momentum for a test of the Fibonacci level at $2009.90. This is a trigger point for an upside acceleration.

Scenario of the Bear

A persistent decline below $1987.60 indicates the existence of sellers. They intend to attempt the formation of a secondary lower top. This, if successful, might result in a break into $1958.70.

Suggestion