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August 28th - Data released on Friday showed that Tokyos core CPI rose 1.8% year-on-year in August, gradually approaching the central banks 2% target, indicating that price pressures from the Middle East conflict are widening. Previously, the Bank of Japan raised its main interest rate to a 31-year high of 1% in June, and kept it unchanged in July, but issued its strongest statement to date regarding escalating inflation risks. Analysts pointed out that the recent sharp rise in wholesale prices, reaching 7.2% year-on-year in July, highlights the increasing price pressures from the Middle East conflict, which may push up consumer prices in the future.SEOUL, Aug. 28 (Yonhap) -- A ship carrying petroleum products caught fire Thursday evening in waters near Incheon, west of Seoul, the South Korean Coast Guard said. The fire has been extinguished. The Coast Guard said the 7,000-ton vessel caught fire at around 10:38 p.m. Thursday. There were 18 crew members on board; two died, and the remaining 16 were rescued and are in stable condition. Initial suspicions suggest the fire originated in the engine room but did not spread to the fuel storage tanks.On August 28th, Futures News reported that, according to foreign media, sources revealed that US President Trump and his energy, environment, and agriculture officials met on Wednesday to discuss a plan to expand exemptions for small refineries to blend biofuels. The proposal aims to double the number of exemptions from the current 990 million renewable fuel credits (RINs) to as many as 1.8 billion, with a final decision expected by the end of August. This move aims to curb soaring gasoline prices caused by the six-month-long US-Israel war in Iraq, helping Republicans maintain control of Congress in the November midterm elections, but has already triggered a strong backlash from the US agricultural sector. US renewable fuel identification numbers (RINs) have also fallen sharply due to market expectations of weakening biofuel demand. On Thursday, an agricultural and biofuel industry consortium, including the US Renewable Fuels Association, Growth Energy, and the National Farmers Union, wrote to Trump urging him to reject the exemption expansion plan, warning that a significant increase in small refinery exemptions would weaken demand for crops such as corn and soybean oil, as well as renewable fuels, severely damaging the rural economy.Japans Tokyo unadjusted CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in August, unchanged from the previous month.Japans Tokyo CPI rose 1.9% year-on-year in August, below the expected 1.90% and the previous figure revised from 2.00% to 1.80%.

June Gold Buyers May Face Difficulties at $1987.60

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:14

The market's strength is being fueled by demand for a hedge against rising inflation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lessening pressure from expectations of an aggressive US interest rate hike, and the US Dollar's intraday reversal top.

 

June Comex gold futures are currently trading at $1982.70, up $6.60 or 0.33 percent from their previous close. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is currently trading at $184.66, up $0.89 or 0.48 percent from its previous close.

 

Gold is regarded as an inflation hedge and a hedge against geopolitical concerns. However, higher interest rates in the United States would increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion and strengthen the dollar against which it is valued.

 

However, the price action shows that gold buyers are seeking insurance against inflation and are not very concerned about opportunity costs at the moment. Despite all of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and anticipation for aggressive rate hikes, we have yet to witness a shift in the direction of inflation.

 

Gold is likely to remain underpinned for the foreseeable future as long as the inflation arrow continues to point upward and the Ukraine war continues.

 

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Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. A move over the intraday high of $1985.50 reaffirms the uptrend. A break of $1916.20 will revert the major trend to the downside.

 

On the upside, the retracement zone between $1987.60 and $2009.90 is the nearest objective.

 

On the downside, the long-term Fibonacci level at $1958.70 serves as the initial support, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1932.90.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The June Comex gold futures market's path through Wednesday's close is likely to be dictated by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1987.60.

Scenario of Bullishness

A sustained move above $1987.60 will signal that buyers are present. This could provide the necessary momentum for a test of the Fibonacci level at $2009.90. This is a trigger point for an upside acceleration.

Scenario of the Bear

A persistent decline below $1987.60 indicates the existence of sellers. They intend to attempt the formation of a secondary lower top. This, if successful, might result in a break into $1958.70.

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