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On January 16th, a research report from CITIC Securities stated that the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the interest rates of various relending tools by 25 basis points. However, this measure is not a traditional reduction in the reverse repo rate or LPR (Loan Prime Rate), but rather a targeted effort through structural tools. We believe this move will help boost banks lending activity, promote stable credit growth, and alleviate pressure on bank interest rate spreads to some extent. Regarding aggregate policy, the PBOC indicated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts this year. However, given the continued strong export performance and relatively strong short-term economic momentum, we expect short-term policy easing to be restrained, with the total reduction in the reverse repo rate for the year likely to be around 10 basis points. As for exchange rates, the PBOC continues its policy stance of "maintaining basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level." We believe that in the short term, the policy focus remains on preventing exchange rate overshooting, improving expectation management, and enhancing enterprises exchange rate hedging capabilities, rather than gaining a trade competitive advantage through exchange rate adjustments.On January 16th, CITIC Securities pointed out that new social financing in December 2025 was 2.21 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.65 trillion yuan year-on-year. The decline in social financing year-on-year was in line with expectations, due to government bond issuance leading the way and weakened support from a high base. Corporate lending improved marginally in December, likely mainly due to banks proactive pre-launch project preparations. Retail lending remained sluggish, with expectations for a recovery in demand driven by macroeconomic recovery and coordinated policy efforts. The proactive fiscal policy and relatively loose monetary policy are expected to continue in 2026, with government bonds remaining a significant driver of social financing growth. Credit growth is projected to remain around 7%-8% in 2026, but a genuine improvement in bank fundamentals will require further improvement in credit demand and economic expectations.On January 16, the U.S. Senate passed a bill approving billions of dollars in funding for several federal research agencies, rejecting the Trump administrations proposed budget cuts to research and space programs. Under the bill, the National Science Foundation (NSF) will receive $8.75 billion for research in areas such as quantum information science and artificial intelligence, significantly higher than the White Houses proposed 57% budget cut. Democratic Senator Van Hollen stated that the funding will support nearly 10,000 new research projects, covering more than 250,000 researchers, faculty, and students.European Central Bank Chief Economist Lian: Current interest rate levels set a benchmark for the coming years. If the benchmark scenario holds true, there is no discussion of interest rate changes in the near term.Sources say a bipartisan group of governors will sign an agreement with the Trump administration on Friday to curb rising electricity costs in the PJM region, which covers 13 states. The agreement would cap future electricity auctions for two years and mandate that data centers share more of the financial burden of expansion.

Silver Prices Retreated Despite Growing Concerns About Inflation

Larissa Barlow

Apr 15, 2022 10:32

Today, silver prices fell, attempting to interrupt a six-day winning streak. Despite the decline, silver prices should continue to be in high demand due to rising inflation fears and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Inflation-adjusted benchmark rates continued to increase. Gold and silver prices continue to act as an inflation hedge.

 

Oil prices fell as supply concerns grew. While global supply constraints remain an issue as a result of a prospective Russian oil shutdown, the EIA said this week that member states would release strategic reserves.

 

Retail sales in the United States increased by 0.5 percent in March, despite rising inflation, and are up 6.9 percent year over year. Gas station revenues increased the most, as retail sales are not inflation-adjusted. The most significant declines occurred in internet sales, which fell by 6.4 percent.

 

Initial unemployment claims increased to 185,000, up 18,000 from the prior week. Despite the fact that export prices rose faster than import prices, the US trade imbalance widened. Imports have been impacted by inflation, with prices increasing by 2.6 percent and 12.6 percent month over month.

Technical Evaluation

Silver prices dropped after six consecutive positive trading sessions. Despite this, silver prices have continued to rise as a hedge against global inflation and as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Support is located near the $24.9 ten-day moving average. Resistance is located near the March 24th high of approximately $25.845. A break to the upside would take us to the $26.00 level. Short-term momentum shifted negative as the fast stochastic crossed below the zero line, signaling a sell signal.

 

As the histogram prints positively with the MACD, the medium-term momentum turns positive (moving average convergence divergence). The MACD histogram's trajectory is positive, indicating an upward trend in price movement.

 

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