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On November 6, analysts at High Frequency Economics said that the Federal Reserve still has two meetings between the presidential election day and the inauguration day, but it is expected that it will be careful to avoid letting expectations of the White Houses future policies affect its interest rate decisions. The Federal Reserve can only set monetary conditions based on policies and budgets established by law or orders from the executive branch. In the fierce campaign, it cannot redefine policies based on rapidly changing promises. Even if the intentions of the winning candidate may become clearer by December, these will still need to be implemented through congressional legislation or executive orders.On November 6, Citi analyst Jabaz Matai said that at the current market odds, it is attractive to bet that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates again in December. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, but given a series of strong economic data recently, this may be the last rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. His latest report recommends a swap transaction, in which traders agree to pay a fixed annualized interest rate of 4.404% and receive interest that floats with the Federal Reserves target rate. If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in December and keeps interest rates between 4.5% and 4.75% by the end of the year, this transaction will pay off.Tip: The Associated Press said Trump won Indiana and Kentucky in the election, and Harris won Vermont. The results were in line with the general media predictions.Minutes of the Bank of Japans September meeting: One member said the policy rate could reach 1% in the second half of fiscal 2025.According to the Associated Press: Harris wins Vermont.

Bulls in the E-mini S&P 500 Face a New Obstacle at 4447.25

Larissa Barlow

Apr 14, 2022 10:08

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher late Wednesday, boosted by a comeback in market-leading growth firms after investors absorbed strong inflation data and mixed quarterly profits.

Earnings Results Are Contradictory 

JPMorgan Chase & Co. kicked off the first-quarter earnings season with a 42 percent decline in quarterly profit. The largest US lender's disappointing results pushed its shares down 3.2 percent.

 

On the plus side, Delta Air Lines' profits exceeded forecasts, and the airline anticipated a current-quarter profit return due to "historically high" demand. According to Reuters, the 5.9 percent share increase was contagious; the larger S&P 1500 airline index increased 6.5 percent.

 

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Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is downward. A break of 4382.25 will indicate the resumption of the decline. A break of 4588.75 will reverse the overall trend to the upside.

 

4800.00 to 4094.25 is the primary range. The next target range on the upside is its retracement zone between 4447.25 and 4530.50. A minor pivot point is located inside this zone at 4506.75. This is also a possible source of resistance.

 

4094.25 to 4631.00 is the short-term range. Support is located in the retracement zone between 4362.50 and 4299.25. This zone is dictating the index's near-term direction.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

Early Thursday, the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index is likely to be dictated by market reaction to the primary 50% level at 4447.25.

Scenario of Bullishness

A prolonged move over 4447.25 will signal that buyers are present. If this move gains sufficient near-term momentum, expect for buying to extend into 4506.75 to 4530.50.

 

Due to the fact that the primary trend is downward, traders must keep an eye out for sellers. They may attempt to produce a secondary lower top that is potentially bearish.

Scenario of the Bear

A continuous decline below 4447.25 indicates the existence of sellers. If this generates sufficient downside momentum, expect selling to extend towards yesterday's low at 4382.25, followed by the short-term retracement zone between 4362.50 and 4299.25.

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