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GBP/USD regains 1.18 thanks to a weaker DXY ahead of Jackson Hole and secondary US economic data

Daniel Rogers

Aug 25, 2022 14:53

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During Thursday's Asian session, the GBP/USD retests its intraday high at 1.1815 while consolidating its weekly losses in response to a dollar decline. The most recent increases in the cable pair could also be linked to expectations that the next British government will be more organized and assertive.

 

The Resolution Foundation, a UK think tank, told Reuters on Thursday that Britain's next prime minister must implement radical ideas, such as discounted power prices, energy bill freezes, or a "solidarity" tax increase for higher incomes, to cushion the energy price shock for a significant portion of households.

 

Ex-Chancellor Rishi Sunak's support for the Bank of England (BOE) and preparations for spending cuts and power bill management kept GBP/USD buyers upbeat. Sunak's chances of becoming Prime Minister of the United Kingdom are enhanced by his moderate pro-Brexit attitude and his financial expertise, especially in the midst of fears of a recession.

 

In contrast, the US Dollar Index (DXY) opened Wednesday on a higher footing before retreating to 108.50, down 0.15 percent as equity markets reduced recent losses in the absence of exceptionally positive US data. Inconsistency in the most recent Fedspeak and market chatter on whether Fed Chair Powell will emphasize his economic concerns at the Jackson Hole Symposium or refrain from making unduly aggressive remarks added to the dollar index's decline against the six major currencies.

 

The July data for US Durable Goods Orders was 0.0%, which was below the predicted 0.6% and the significantly lowered 2.2% estimate from the previous month. However, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft above the 0.3% market consensus to achieve 0.4%, up from 0.9% earlier. In July, Pending Home Sales improved to -1.0% MoM from -4.0% expected and -8.9% before (revised down from -8.9%). Annually, the fall in Pending Home Sales was 19.9%, which was less than the prior annual decline of 20%.

 

US 10-year Treasury rates reached a two-month high of roughly 3.10%, the highest level in a week, while Wall Street benchmarks showed moderate increases, allowing S&P 500 Futures to remain somewhat bullish at around 4,150 as of the most recent update.

 

Future calendars will feature the second edition of the US GDP for the second quarter alongside the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for the designated period. For new efforts, Jackson Hole will receive the most attention. Morgan Stanley has indicated in its study that the gloomy GDP outlook continues to weigh on the British pound. We do not predict a big decline in GBP from here, despite the fact that GDP projections are already bleak and GBP sentiment is negative.

 

Buyers need confirmation from June's low of 1.1933 to take control of the GBP/USD pair. GBP/USD bears look to be losing momentum at the multi-month bottom, but buyers need confirmation from June's low of 1.1933 to reclaim control.


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