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February 6th, Futures News – According to foreign media reports, soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed slightly lower on Thursday, with the benchmark contract essentially flat, mainly dragged down by a decline in international crude oil prices and weak export sales data. Traders said the decline in international crude oil futures unlocked arbitrage opportunities in the soybean oil/soybean meal trade, and weak soybean oil export sales data put pressure on the soybean oil market. However, the clarification of the US biofuel blending policy and a bright demand outlook limited the downside potential for soybean oil. The US Department of Agricultures weekly export sales report showed that for the week ending January 29, 2026, net sales of US soybean oil for the 2025/26 marketing year were 1,000 tons, down 96% from the previous week and 95% from the four-week average.February 6th - A CICC research report states that while the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to "shrink" its balance sheet in the short term, the threshold for continued "balance sheet expansion" and QE has clearly risen. If the Fed is unwilling to support fiscal easing through "balance sheet expansion," a new temporary monetary-fiscal coordination approach might be for the Fed to increase interest rate cuts and the Treasury to increase short-term debt issuance, first promoting financial deregulation, and then initiating the "balance sheet reduction" process. The Feds final interest rate cuts may exceed market expectations, and the dollar easing trade may return in the short term. A steepening US Treasury yield curve coupled with financial deregulation is beneficial to US bank stocks. The Fed may determine the end of the gold bull market, but this turning point has not yet arrived. Chinese stocks and global commodities are only temporarily under pressure, awaiting the return of easing expectations.Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock: The risks are more skewed toward inflation, and we are responding to that.Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock: Inflation is slightly high and has some stickiness.Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock: The labor market is still performing very well, which is good news.

The US Dollar Index is trying to regain 109 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders data from Jackson Hole

Alina Haynes

Aug 24, 2022 15:26

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As traders wait for the day's significant triggers amid a sluggish opening, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its rise toward the multi-year high established in July, adding bids to 108.60 in the Asian session on Wednesday.

 

The dollar index dropped from a multi-year high of 109.27 against the six major currencies the day before yesterday. While the present downturn in US data is driving the quote to retreat, the DXY bulls are supported by concerns of an economic slowdown and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) quick rate hikes.

 

The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, was quoted by Reuters as saying that misreading the underlying inflation dynamics is the biggest worry. If the Fed sees inflation creeping closer to their target of 2%, they may slow their rate of rate hikes, according to the official.

 

However, traders in fed funds futures are pricing in a 52.5% chance of a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) at the upcoming Fed meeting. On Monday, Reuters reported that a rate hike of 50 basis points in September was somewhat more likely than 50 percent.

 

Preliminary readings released on Tuesday by the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August showed a decline to 51.3 from 52.0 expected and 52.2 earlier, while the Services index plunged to 44.1 from 47.3 compared to 49.2 market expectations. As reported by S&P Global, the Composite PMI has fallen to 45, the lowest level in 27 months, signaling a potential crisis for the US economy.

 

In addition, the number of newly constructed homes sold in the United States dropped to 0.511 million in July, down from 0.585 million the previous month and 0.575 million the market had predicted. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -8.0 in August from a reading of 0.0 the month before.

 

At press time, US 10-year Treasury rates were lingering at 3.05%, the highest level in a month, despite small advances for the day on Wall Street. S&P 500 Futures have been declining somewhat as of press time, which is notable.

 

DXY volatility may be constrained in the future by the light schedule preceding the North American session. Next, keep an eye on the US Durable Goods Orders for July, which are predicted to rise 0.6% after rising 2.0% in June. As markets try to predict the Fed's next move, Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed will be crucial.

 

DXY bears are threatened by a rising support line that has been in place for two weeks near 108.00, but the buyers won't be convinced until the uptrend is confirmed above 109.30.