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On August 21st, Bank of America analysts wrote that European stocks will underperform due to the uncertainty surrounding the monetization path of artificial intelligence. The analysts stated that increased competition from China and the US will force AI model makers to offer more competitive pricing, potentially dragging down previously high profit expectations. Rising borrowing costs will also weigh on corporate earnings. European stock pricing already reflects expectations of continued AI spending boom, but a reversal in AI momentum will weaken this optimism. Analysts predict that the Stoxx Europe 600 index will fall 10% to 580 points by the second quarter of 2027.Tibo, Product Manager at OpenAI Codex: Regarding the issue of excessively rapid quota consumption, although no abnormalities have been found so far, we take this very seriously and are currently investigating.Brazils Finance Minister: Our focus for the next few years is to end the six-day work week and lower interest rates.On August 21st, TD Securities strategists noted in a report that additional guidance from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at next weeks Jackson Hole symposium might offer investors "a slight respite." However, it would be disappointing if Warsh continued to avoid providing forward guidance. They stated, "The market will expect stability from Warsh, but the risk of disappointment remains high." Strategists believe Warsh may try to improve his communication style, but forward guidance may still be insufficient. "The market will be looking for clues about its response mechanisms and a reaffirmation of the Feds ability to combat inflation." Strategists anticipate Warshs speech will be gradual rather than disruptive.Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell slightly by about $0.50 in the short term, to $86.32 and $92.07 per barrel, respectively.

The US Dollar Index is trying to regain 109 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders data from Jackson Hole

Alina Haynes

Aug 24, 2022 15:26

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As traders wait for the day's significant triggers amid a sluggish opening, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its rise toward the multi-year high established in July, adding bids to 108.60 in the Asian session on Wednesday.

 

The dollar index dropped from a multi-year high of 109.27 against the six major currencies the day before yesterday. While the present downturn in US data is driving the quote to retreat, the DXY bulls are supported by concerns of an economic slowdown and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) quick rate hikes.

 

The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, was quoted by Reuters as saying that misreading the underlying inflation dynamics is the biggest worry. If the Fed sees inflation creeping closer to their target of 2%, they may slow their rate of rate hikes, according to the official.

 

However, traders in fed funds futures are pricing in a 52.5% chance of a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) at the upcoming Fed meeting. On Monday, Reuters reported that a rate hike of 50 basis points in September was somewhat more likely than 50 percent.

 

Preliminary readings released on Tuesday by the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August showed a decline to 51.3 from 52.0 expected and 52.2 earlier, while the Services index plunged to 44.1 from 47.3 compared to 49.2 market expectations. As reported by S&P Global, the Composite PMI has fallen to 45, the lowest level in 27 months, signaling a potential crisis for the US economy.

 

In addition, the number of newly constructed homes sold in the United States dropped to 0.511 million in July, down from 0.585 million the previous month and 0.575 million the market had predicted. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -8.0 in August from a reading of 0.0 the month before.

 

At press time, US 10-year Treasury rates were lingering at 3.05%, the highest level in a month, despite small advances for the day on Wall Street. S&P 500 Futures have been declining somewhat as of press time, which is notable.

 

DXY volatility may be constrained in the future by the light schedule preceding the North American session. Next, keep an eye on the US Durable Goods Orders for July, which are predicted to rise 0.6% after rising 2.0% in June. As markets try to predict the Fed's next move, Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed will be crucial.

 

DXY bears are threatened by a rising support line that has been in place for two weeks near 108.00, but the buyers won't be convinced until the uptrend is confirmed above 109.30.