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According to the AXIOS website, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced that the number of measles cases in the United States has reached a new high in more than 30 years.On December 31st, Huaxi Securities pointed out that high volatility in precious metals is likely to continue in the short term. Silver, platinum, and palladium, constrained by liquidity and market capacity, may face significant corrections. While gold and other non-ferrous metals are affected by sentiment-driven market movements, their declines are expected to be relatively manageable, and they are likely to stabilize first. Therefore, a defensive strategy is advisable in the short term, waiting for short-term sentiment to dissipate and the market to stabilize. In the medium to long term, the macroeconomic logic of the Feds easing cycle coupled with a weak dollar remains unchanged, and the foundation for a long-term bull market in precious metals remains solid. If a deep correction occurs in this round (for example, golds correction exceeding 10%), it will present an excellent opportunity to buy on dips.On December 31st, according to foreign media reports, international oil prices stabilized on Tuesday after experiencing fluctuations. Despite escalating tensions in the Middle East surrounding Yemen and a renewed setback in the prospects for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, market concerns about a global supply glut again limited the upside potential for oil prices. The significant increase in political risks in the Middle East prompted the market to re-induce a certain geopolitical risk premium. Localized disruptions on the supply side also provided support for prices. The US blockade of Venezuelan crude oil continues, and severe weather in the Black Sea region has disrupted CPC crude oil exports, tightening some supplies flowing to Europe and Asia in the short term. These events combined to provide some support for oil prices around $60. However, in the medium term, the crude oil market still faces oversupply pressure. Several institutions have pointed out that the global oil market may enter a significant oversupply phase in early 2026. Production from non-OPEC oil-producing countries continues to grow, while demand lacks the momentum for simultaneous expansion. Even if the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, the impact on actual crude oil exports will remain limited, making it difficult to fundamentally reverse the supply and demand structure. Analysts believe that oil prices are currently in a sideways consolidation range, and geopolitical risk events may bring a short-term rebound, but it is unlikely to form a sustained trend.New Energy Vehicles: 1. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and three other departments issued the "Implementation Plan for Digital Transformation of the Automotive Industry," proposing that by 2027, the maturity level of intelligent manufacturing capabilities of benchmark vehicle manufacturers will be upgraded by one level, and the digitalization level of component manufacturers will be significantly improved. 2. Teslas official website released analyst forecasts for delivery volume: analysts on average expect the company to deliver 422,850 vehicles in the fourth quarter, a 15% decrease compared to the same period last year. 3. Reports indicate that Xiaomi Auto initially plans to launch four new models next year: a facelifted SU7, an executive version of the SU7, a range-extended five-seater SUV, and a range-extended seven-seater SUV. Artificial Intelligence: 1. MiniMax: Plans to issue over 25 million shares in its Hong Kong listing, with a maximum price of HK$165. 2. Nvidia plans to acquire Israels AI21 Labs for up to $3 billion. 3. Foreign media: Alibaba, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and others are reportedly participating in MiniMaxs $600 million IPO. 4. CNBC: SoftBank has fully completed its $40 billion investment commitment in OpenAI. 5. xAI: Plans to build a third hyperscale data center will increase training computing power to nearly 2 gigawatts. Other: 1. my country successfully launched the Tianhui-7 satellite. 2. my country successfully launched the Shijian-29 satellite. 3. Next year, the "Two New" policy will be optimized and upgraded, with smart products included in the subsidy scope. 4. Chinas domestically produced manned airship "Xiangyun" AS700 obtained a production license, officially entering the mass production stage. 5. Reports indicate that TSMCs Arizona plant will begin 3nm mass production in 2027, a year earlier than originally planned. 6. Samsung Electronics plans to achieve a monthly HBM wafer production capacity of 250,000 wafers by the end of 2026, a 47% increase from the current monthly capacity of 170,000 wafers. December 31, 2025 – At 06:40 Beijing time on December 31, 2025, my country successfully launched the Shijian-29 Satellite A and Satellite B into their predetermined orbits using a Long March-7A carrier rocket from the Wenchang Space Launch Site. The launch mission was a complete success. The satellites will primarily conduct verification experiments on new technologies for space target detection. This mission marks the 623rd flight of the Long March series of carrier rockets.

The US Dollar Index is trying to regain 109 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders data from Jackson Hole

Alina Haynes

Aug 24, 2022 15:26

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As traders wait for the day's significant triggers amid a sluggish opening, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its rise toward the multi-year high established in July, adding bids to 108.60 in the Asian session on Wednesday.

 

The dollar index dropped from a multi-year high of 109.27 against the six major currencies the day before yesterday. While the present downturn in US data is driving the quote to retreat, the DXY bulls are supported by concerns of an economic slowdown and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) quick rate hikes.

 

The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, was quoted by Reuters as saying that misreading the underlying inflation dynamics is the biggest worry. If the Fed sees inflation creeping closer to their target of 2%, they may slow their rate of rate hikes, according to the official.

 

However, traders in fed funds futures are pricing in a 52.5% chance of a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) at the upcoming Fed meeting. On Monday, Reuters reported that a rate hike of 50 basis points in September was somewhat more likely than 50 percent.

 

Preliminary readings released on Tuesday by the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August showed a decline to 51.3 from 52.0 expected and 52.2 earlier, while the Services index plunged to 44.1 from 47.3 compared to 49.2 market expectations. As reported by S&P Global, the Composite PMI has fallen to 45, the lowest level in 27 months, signaling a potential crisis for the US economy.

 

In addition, the number of newly constructed homes sold in the United States dropped to 0.511 million in July, down from 0.585 million the previous month and 0.575 million the market had predicted. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -8.0 in August from a reading of 0.0 the month before.

 

At press time, US 10-year Treasury rates were lingering at 3.05%, the highest level in a month, despite small advances for the day on Wall Street. S&P 500 Futures have been declining somewhat as of press time, which is notable.

 

DXY volatility may be constrained in the future by the light schedule preceding the North American session. Next, keep an eye on the US Durable Goods Orders for July, which are predicted to rise 0.6% after rising 2.0% in June. As markets try to predict the Fed's next move, Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed will be crucial.

 

DXY bears are threatened by a rising support line that has been in place for two weeks near 108.00, but the buyers won't be convinced until the uptrend is confirmed above 109.30.