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On February 19th, the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a battle report on the 18th, stating that Russian forces had captured Kharkivka in the Sumy region and Krinichnoye in the Zaporizhzhia region, and had also attacked fuel depots, energy facilities, long-range drone launch sites used by Ukrainian forces, as well as temporary deployment points of Ukrainian armed forces and foreign mercenaries. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated on the same day that, as of 10 PM local time on the 18th, a total of 201 battles had occurred in the front-line areas, including 16 attacks by Russian forces in the Konstantinovka direction, in which Ukrainian forces attacked Russian personnel and equipment.A Reuters poll shows that two-thirds of Japanese companies are concerned about Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis fiscal discipline.Dominic LeBlanc, Canadas Minister for Canada-US Trade: (When asked if Canada had discussed any contingency plans with Mexico should the US seek a bilateral agreement) No.Dominic LeBlanc, the Canadian Minister in charge of trade with the United States and Canada: I am reassured that the Mexican Minister of Economy has expressed his willingness to work with Canada and ensure that the review of the USMCA results in a trilateral trade arrangement.Conflict Status: 1. Ukraine reportedly recaptured 201 square kilometers of land in five days. 2. Russian troops have taken control of Krinichny in eastern Ukraine. 3. Russian Foreign Ministry: Dutch mercenaries flying Ukrainian aircraft will be legal targets. Peace Negotiations: 1. Russian media: No documents were signed at the Geneva talks. 2. Head of the Russian delegation: The negotiations lasted about two hours, difficult but pragmatic. A new round of talks on the Ukraine issue will be held soon. 3. White House Press Secretary: The latest round of trilateral contacts "made meaningful progress," and all parties agreed to continue negotiations. 4. Zelensky: Differences remain in current positions; European participation in peace negotiations is crucial. 5. Zelensky: The talks at the military level were substantive; political issues need further study. He hopes the next round of negotiations will be held in February. 6. Zelensky: Ukraine and Russia are "close" to forming a document on how to monitor the ceasefire; the United States will play a leading role in monitoring the ceasefire. 7. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia and the United States have agreed to establish a bilateral economic working group to discuss trade and economic issues separately. 8. Zelensky: The next round of talks with Russia will be held in Switzerland. Other developments: 1. Zelensky: Sanctions have been imposed on Belarusian President Lukashenko. 2. Hungary and Slovakia have announced a suspension of diesel exports to Ukraine. 3. The EU has adopted a comprehensive strategy to support member states bordering Russia and Ukraine. 4. Russian oil drilling activity is projected to fall to its lowest level in three years by 2025. 5. Data shows that India imported 1.1 million barrels per day of Russian oil in January, the lowest level since November 2022.

The US Dollar Index is trying to regain 109 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders data from Jackson Hole

Alina Haynes

Aug 24, 2022 15:26

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As traders wait for the day's significant triggers amid a sluggish opening, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its rise toward the multi-year high established in July, adding bids to 108.60 in the Asian session on Wednesday.

 

The dollar index dropped from a multi-year high of 109.27 against the six major currencies the day before yesterday. While the present downturn in US data is driving the quote to retreat, the DXY bulls are supported by concerns of an economic slowdown and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) quick rate hikes.

 

The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, was quoted by Reuters as saying that misreading the underlying inflation dynamics is the biggest worry. If the Fed sees inflation creeping closer to their target of 2%, they may slow their rate of rate hikes, according to the official.

 

However, traders in fed funds futures are pricing in a 52.5% chance of a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) at the upcoming Fed meeting. On Monday, Reuters reported that a rate hike of 50 basis points in September was somewhat more likely than 50 percent.

 

Preliminary readings released on Tuesday by the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August showed a decline to 51.3 from 52.0 expected and 52.2 earlier, while the Services index plunged to 44.1 from 47.3 compared to 49.2 market expectations. As reported by S&P Global, the Composite PMI has fallen to 45, the lowest level in 27 months, signaling a potential crisis for the US economy.

 

In addition, the number of newly constructed homes sold in the United States dropped to 0.511 million in July, down from 0.585 million the previous month and 0.575 million the market had predicted. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -8.0 in August from a reading of 0.0 the month before.

 

At press time, US 10-year Treasury rates were lingering at 3.05%, the highest level in a month, despite small advances for the day on Wall Street. S&P 500 Futures have been declining somewhat as of press time, which is notable.

 

DXY volatility may be constrained in the future by the light schedule preceding the North American session. Next, keep an eye on the US Durable Goods Orders for July, which are predicted to rise 0.6% after rising 2.0% in June. As markets try to predict the Fed's next move, Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed will be crucial.

 

DXY bears are threatened by a rising support line that has been in place for two weeks near 108.00, but the buyers won't be convinced until the uptrend is confirmed above 109.30.