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On August 28th, Allianz Chief Advisor El-Erian stated, "Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh is about to deliver his first Jackson Hole keynote address. At this crucial moment, he faces a delicate challenge: how to respond to the highly diverse expectations of the market and various sectors. On one hand, some hope he will continue the tradition of previous Fed chairs, providing forward-looking guidance while elaborating on the current policy response mechanism—how the Fed will make policy decisions in response to economic data and changing circumstances. On the other hand, others hope he will return to the original long-term strategic positioning of this unique meeting. This means focusing more on the increasing and more complex domestic economic and policy issues in the context of profound structural changes driven by technological innovation and geoeconomics. Balancing these two expectations is no easy task. This balance is not only difficult to maintain but also almost certain to satisfy everyone. Meanwhile, policy factors outside the Fed further increase the difficulty of decision-making. However, Warshs speech will undoubtedly provide an important window for the outside world to gain a deeper understanding of the new Fed chairs policy philosophy and leadership style. Personally, I hope his speech will focus more on long-term structural issues, especially given the significant disagreements within the FOMC."On August 28th, the Securities Association of China and the Asset Management Association of China, based on their previous practical experience and research findings, jointly drafted the "Securities Company Trading Information System Access Management Standards (Trial Implementation)". The Standards clarify that securities companies must conduct trading information system access in accordance with laws and regulations, provide system access services prudently, treat system access clients fairly, and refrain from providing differentiated arrangements for technical or business resources to specific access clients. The Standards emphasize the primary responsibility of securities companies for managing external system access, requiring them to conduct comprehensive and thorough management, fully verify investor qualifications, and fully validate relevant system functions. During the access process, securities companies must earnestly fulfill their management responsibilities, strictly adhere to existing securities market trading management regulations, strictly control risks, and ensure that system access remains compliant, secure, and stable at all times.Ukrainian Minister: Gas reserves are sufficient for winter.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GRU) also possesses evidence that a large oil refinery in Kestovo, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Russia, has ceased production. This refinery processes 17 million tons of crude oil annually. Furthermore, other Russian refineries have also ceased production.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: Following our series of long-range strikes against the Kamensky plant in Rostov Oblast, Russias production capacity for solid-fuel rocket engines has been significantly weakened. We will continue to conduct such long-range strike operations.

The US Dollar Index is trying to regain 109 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders data from Jackson Hole

Alina Haynes

Aug 24, 2022 15:26

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As traders wait for the day's significant triggers amid a sluggish opening, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its rise toward the multi-year high established in July, adding bids to 108.60 in the Asian session on Wednesday.

 

The dollar index dropped from a multi-year high of 109.27 against the six major currencies the day before yesterday. While the present downturn in US data is driving the quote to retreat, the DXY bulls are supported by concerns of an economic slowdown and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) quick rate hikes.

 

The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, was quoted by Reuters as saying that misreading the underlying inflation dynamics is the biggest worry. If the Fed sees inflation creeping closer to their target of 2%, they may slow their rate of rate hikes, according to the official.

 

However, traders in fed funds futures are pricing in a 52.5% chance of a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) at the upcoming Fed meeting. On Monday, Reuters reported that a rate hike of 50 basis points in September was somewhat more likely than 50 percent.

 

Preliminary readings released on Tuesday by the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August showed a decline to 51.3 from 52.0 expected and 52.2 earlier, while the Services index plunged to 44.1 from 47.3 compared to 49.2 market expectations. As reported by S&P Global, the Composite PMI has fallen to 45, the lowest level in 27 months, signaling a potential crisis for the US economy.

 

In addition, the number of newly constructed homes sold in the United States dropped to 0.511 million in July, down from 0.585 million the previous month and 0.575 million the market had predicted. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -8.0 in August from a reading of 0.0 the month before.

 

At press time, US 10-year Treasury rates were lingering at 3.05%, the highest level in a month, despite small advances for the day on Wall Street. S&P 500 Futures have been declining somewhat as of press time, which is notable.

 

DXY volatility may be constrained in the future by the light schedule preceding the North American session. Next, keep an eye on the US Durable Goods Orders for July, which are predicted to rise 0.6% after rising 2.0% in June. As markets try to predict the Fed's next move, Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed will be crucial.

 

DXY bears are threatened by a rising support line that has been in place for two weeks near 108.00, but the buyers won't be convinced until the uptrend is confirmed above 109.30.