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April 14th - At 10:00 AM today, the State Council Information Office held a press conference where officials from the General Administration of Customs introduced my countrys import and export situation in the first quarter. In the first quarter, my countrys exports of electromechanical products reached 4.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.3%, accounting for 63.4% of total exports, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Among them, exports of green products such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and wind turbine generators and their parts increased by 77.5%, 50.4%, and 45.2%, respectively. In the first quarter, my country imported 291 million tons of energy products and 405 million tons of metal ores, respectively, increasing by 4.4% and 13.2%. During the same period, imports of electromechanical products reached 1.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.7%; imports of consumer goods reached 418.92 billion yuan, an increase of 5.4%.On April 14th, Okasan Securities economists stated that as the mechanism of simultaneous wage and price increases in Japan becomes increasingly active, there is a growing perception that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is lagging behind in its policy response. For the government led by the Prime Minister, it is crucial to get the central bank on the path of interest rate hikes, rather than masking inflationary pressures through large-scale subsidies and consumption tax cuts. Given the high uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East, the overnight index swap market estimates a roughly 40% probability of a BOJ rate hike in April.April 14 - On the morning of April 14, President Xi Jinping will meet with Crown Prince Khalid of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, who is visiting China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.April 14 - According to customs statistics, in the first quarter, my countrys imports and exports to countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 6.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, accounting for 51.2% of the total import and export value.Japanese chip-related stocks continued their upward trend, with Kioxia shares up 16%, SoftBank Group up 11%, and Advantest up 8.0%.

The US Dollar Index is trying to regain 109 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders data from Jackson Hole

Alina Haynes

Aug 24, 2022 15:26

截屏2022-08-24 上午10.16.07.png 

 

As traders wait for the day's significant triggers amid a sluggish opening, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its rise toward the multi-year high established in July, adding bids to 108.60 in the Asian session on Wednesday.

 

The dollar index dropped from a multi-year high of 109.27 against the six major currencies the day before yesterday. While the present downturn in US data is driving the quote to retreat, the DXY bulls are supported by concerns of an economic slowdown and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) quick rate hikes.

 

The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, was quoted by Reuters as saying that misreading the underlying inflation dynamics is the biggest worry. If the Fed sees inflation creeping closer to their target of 2%, they may slow their rate of rate hikes, according to the official.

 

However, traders in fed funds futures are pricing in a 52.5% chance of a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) at the upcoming Fed meeting. On Monday, Reuters reported that a rate hike of 50 basis points in September was somewhat more likely than 50 percent.

 

Preliminary readings released on Tuesday by the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August showed a decline to 51.3 from 52.0 expected and 52.2 earlier, while the Services index plunged to 44.1 from 47.3 compared to 49.2 market expectations. As reported by S&P Global, the Composite PMI has fallen to 45, the lowest level in 27 months, signaling a potential crisis for the US economy.

 

In addition, the number of newly constructed homes sold in the United States dropped to 0.511 million in July, down from 0.585 million the previous month and 0.575 million the market had predicted. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -8.0 in August from a reading of 0.0 the month before.

 

At press time, US 10-year Treasury rates were lingering at 3.05%, the highest level in a month, despite small advances for the day on Wall Street. S&P 500 Futures have been declining somewhat as of press time, which is notable.

 

DXY volatility may be constrained in the future by the light schedule preceding the North American session. Next, keep an eye on the US Durable Goods Orders for July, which are predicted to rise 0.6% after rising 2.0% in June. As markets try to predict the Fed's next move, Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed will be crucial.

 

DXY bears are threatened by a rising support line that has been in place for two weeks near 108.00, but the buyers won't be convinced until the uptrend is confirmed above 109.30.


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