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On February 11th, BeiChen Lin, Senior Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, stated in a report that while a complete victory is not yet achieved, the Federal Reserves fight against inflation appears to be within reach. He pointed out that a more balanced labor market is helping to suppress inflation in the services sector; moreover, the inflationary pressures from tariffs are expected to gradually subside in the second half of the year. Furthermore, the continued sluggishness of the US housing market will also help control inflationary pressures. Lin believes that even if the US economy maintains trend-based growth this year, or even slightly exceeds trend levels, inflation is expected to remain benign and manageable this year and next.1. Standard Chartered Bank: -10,000; Scotiabank: +000; Capital Economics: +30,000; Oxford Economics: +30,000; 2. Bank of America: +40,000; Moodys Analytics: +40,000; Goldman Sachs: +45,000; TD Securities: +45,000; 3. ABN AMRO: +50,000; Barclays: +50,000; Morgan Stanley: +55,000; Danske Bank: +60,000; 4. DekaBank: +60,000; RBC: +63,000; HSBC: +65,000; ANZ: +70,000; 5. Westpac: +70,000; JPMorgan Chase: +75,000; Deutsche Bank: +75,000; Commerzbank: +80,000; 6. ING: +80,000; Societe Generale: +80,000; UniCredit: +80,000; Wells Fargo: +80,000; 7. Nomura: +85,000; Lloyds Banking Group: +85,000; Mizuho Securities: +90,000; UBS: +90,000; 8. Pansen Macro: +100,000; BNP Paribas: +105,000; Jefferies Group: +110,000; Citigroup: +135,000. On February 11, Saudi Arabias ambassador to Iran, Abdullah Anzi, stated on February 10 that strengthening bilateral relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran would send a clear and unambiguous signal to destructive forces in the region. He emphasized that regional issues cannot be resolved through war, and military confrontation will only exacerbate tensions. Saudi Arabia supports de-escalating regional tensions through political and diplomatic means.February 11th Futures News: 1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 896,471 lots, a decrease of 32,686 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 2,071,193 lots, a decrease of 9,447 lots from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 155,978 lots, a decrease of 6,962 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 261,767 lots, a decrease of 1,475 lots from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 602,356 lots, a decrease of 35,580 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,623,418 lots, a decrease of 14,347 lots from the previous trading day.February 11th - Ant Financials "Afu" has launched an Alipay red envelope campaign. New users who register through "Afu" from February 11th to February 12th can receive a 16.8 yuan Alipay red envelope.

The US Dollar Index is trying to regain 109 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders data from Jackson Hole

Alina Haynes

Aug 24, 2022 15:26

截屏2022-08-24 上午10.16.07.png 

 

As traders wait for the day's significant triggers amid a sluggish opening, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its rise toward the multi-year high established in July, adding bids to 108.60 in the Asian session on Wednesday.

 

The dollar index dropped from a multi-year high of 109.27 against the six major currencies the day before yesterday. While the present downturn in US data is driving the quote to retreat, the DXY bulls are supported by concerns of an economic slowdown and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) quick rate hikes.

 

The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, was quoted by Reuters as saying that misreading the underlying inflation dynamics is the biggest worry. If the Fed sees inflation creeping closer to their target of 2%, they may slow their rate of rate hikes, according to the official.

 

However, traders in fed funds futures are pricing in a 52.5% chance of a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) at the upcoming Fed meeting. On Monday, Reuters reported that a rate hike of 50 basis points in September was somewhat more likely than 50 percent.

 

Preliminary readings released on Tuesday by the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August showed a decline to 51.3 from 52.0 expected and 52.2 earlier, while the Services index plunged to 44.1 from 47.3 compared to 49.2 market expectations. As reported by S&P Global, the Composite PMI has fallen to 45, the lowest level in 27 months, signaling a potential crisis for the US economy.

 

In addition, the number of newly constructed homes sold in the United States dropped to 0.511 million in July, down from 0.585 million the previous month and 0.575 million the market had predicted. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -8.0 in August from a reading of 0.0 the month before.

 

At press time, US 10-year Treasury rates were lingering at 3.05%, the highest level in a month, despite small advances for the day on Wall Street. S&P 500 Futures have been declining somewhat as of press time, which is notable.

 

DXY volatility may be constrained in the future by the light schedule preceding the North American session. Next, keep an eye on the US Durable Goods Orders for July, which are predicted to rise 0.6% after rising 2.0% in June. As markets try to predict the Fed's next move, Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed will be crucial.

 

DXY bears are threatened by a rising support line that has been in place for two weeks near 108.00, but the buyers won't be convinced until the uptrend is confirmed above 109.30.


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