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January 4th - Demonstrations were planned in multiple locations across the United States on the afternoon of January 3rd local time to protest the US military action against Venezuela. One of the groups organizing the protests stated in a press release, "We need to take to the streets and say no to another endless war! The people of this country do not want another war! Americas war will bring death and destruction to the Venezuelan people." Demonstrations are reportedly planned in Chicago, Manhattan in New York, outside the White House in Washington D.C., and at city halls and state capitols across the United States. According to CNN, Venezuelan President Maduro is expected to be transferred to New York today.Note: The press conference held by US President Trump regarding the military action against Venezuela has ended.US President Trump: We know who the bad guys are in the Maduro regime, and we are dealing with them.On January 4th, in response to a question about how this action would affect U.S. relations with countries with interests in Venezuela regarding oil and drugs, U.S. President Trump stated, "As for some countries that need oil, were in the oil industry, and well sell oil to them. We wont refuse to go to those places. In other words, well probably sell oil on a larger scale because their infrastructure is so poor and their production is very limited. So well be selling a lot of oil to other countries, many of which are already using it. But I think more countries will join in."US President Trump: We will ensure that those forced to leave Venezuela are properly resettled.

The US Dollar Index is trying to regain 109 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders data from Jackson Hole

Alina Haynes

Aug 24, 2022 15:26

截屏2022-08-24 上午10.16.07.png 

 

As traders wait for the day's significant triggers amid a sluggish opening, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its rise toward the multi-year high established in July, adding bids to 108.60 in the Asian session on Wednesday.

 

The dollar index dropped from a multi-year high of 109.27 against the six major currencies the day before yesterday. While the present downturn in US data is driving the quote to retreat, the DXY bulls are supported by concerns of an economic slowdown and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) quick rate hikes.

 

The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, was quoted by Reuters as saying that misreading the underlying inflation dynamics is the biggest worry. If the Fed sees inflation creeping closer to their target of 2%, they may slow their rate of rate hikes, according to the official.

 

However, traders in fed funds futures are pricing in a 52.5% chance of a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) at the upcoming Fed meeting. On Monday, Reuters reported that a rate hike of 50 basis points in September was somewhat more likely than 50 percent.

 

Preliminary readings released on Tuesday by the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August showed a decline to 51.3 from 52.0 expected and 52.2 earlier, while the Services index plunged to 44.1 from 47.3 compared to 49.2 market expectations. As reported by S&P Global, the Composite PMI has fallen to 45, the lowest level in 27 months, signaling a potential crisis for the US economy.

 

In addition, the number of newly constructed homes sold in the United States dropped to 0.511 million in July, down from 0.585 million the previous month and 0.575 million the market had predicted. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -8.0 in August from a reading of 0.0 the month before.

 

At press time, US 10-year Treasury rates were lingering at 3.05%, the highest level in a month, despite small advances for the day on Wall Street. S&P 500 Futures have been declining somewhat as of press time, which is notable.

 

DXY volatility may be constrained in the future by the light schedule preceding the North American session. Next, keep an eye on the US Durable Goods Orders for July, which are predicted to rise 0.6% after rising 2.0% in June. As markets try to predict the Fed's next move, Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed will be crucial.

 

DXY bears are threatened by a rising support line that has been in place for two weeks near 108.00, but the buyers won't be convinced until the uptrend is confirmed above 109.30.