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December 17th - The South Korean won fell to its lowest level in more than eight months amid a sell-off of South Korean stocks by foreign funds and stable demand for the US dollar. On Wednesday, the won fell 0.6% against the dollar to 1482.25, its lowest value since April 9th. Continued stock market outflows and overseas investment have caused the won to depreciate by more than 8% against the dollar in the first half of the year, making it the worst-performing currency in Asia, and South Korea faces pressure to defend its currency.December 17th - According to economist Alicia Garcia Herrero, the continued weakness of the yen is becoming a decisive factor in the Bank of Japan and the Japanese governments agreement this month to support the long-awaited interest rate hike. Despite concerns about US tariffs and broader geopolitical risks, the Japanese economy has proven more resilient than expected. Short-, medium-, and long-term inflation expectations remain above the Bank of Japans 2% target, strengthening the case for further policy normalization. Food prices have pushed up core inflation, and the yens continued weakness against the dollar around 155 could exacerbate imported inflation pressures. Herrero expects the Bank of Japan to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% at its meeting on December 19th. Looking ahead, if the yen fails to stabilize after the rate hike and continues to drag down real income, the Japanese government may also accept further tightening of policy, potentially opening the door to another 25 basis point rate hike early next year.On December 17th, the Economic Times of India reported, citing sources familiar with the matter, that Apple is in preliminary talks with several Indian chip manufacturers regarding the assembly and packaging of iPhone components. The report stated that this marks the first time Apple has considered assembling and packaging some chips in India; however, it is unclear which chips will be packaged at its Sanand factory in Gujarat, though it is likely display chips. Apple has already held talks with CG Semi, a subsidiary of the Murugappa Group. CG Semi is building an Outsourced Semiconductor Packaging and Testing (OSAT) facility in Sanand.Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) announced that the launch of the H3 rocket, originally scheduled for Wednesday, has been cancelled due to a facility malfunction.Due to an emergency, the launch of the H3 rocket carrying the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agencys Michibiki 5 satellite system has been postponed.

The US Dollar Index is trying to regain 109 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders data from Jackson Hole

Alina Haynes

Aug 24, 2022 15:26

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As traders wait for the day's significant triggers amid a sluggish opening, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its rise toward the multi-year high established in July, adding bids to 108.60 in the Asian session on Wednesday.

 

The dollar index dropped from a multi-year high of 109.27 against the six major currencies the day before yesterday. While the present downturn in US data is driving the quote to retreat, the DXY bulls are supported by concerns of an economic slowdown and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) quick rate hikes.

 

The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, was quoted by Reuters as saying that misreading the underlying inflation dynamics is the biggest worry. If the Fed sees inflation creeping closer to their target of 2%, they may slow their rate of rate hikes, according to the official.

 

However, traders in fed funds futures are pricing in a 52.5% chance of a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) at the upcoming Fed meeting. On Monday, Reuters reported that a rate hike of 50 basis points in September was somewhat more likely than 50 percent.

 

Preliminary readings released on Tuesday by the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August showed a decline to 51.3 from 52.0 expected and 52.2 earlier, while the Services index plunged to 44.1 from 47.3 compared to 49.2 market expectations. As reported by S&P Global, the Composite PMI has fallen to 45, the lowest level in 27 months, signaling a potential crisis for the US economy.

 

In addition, the number of newly constructed homes sold in the United States dropped to 0.511 million in July, down from 0.585 million the previous month and 0.575 million the market had predicted. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -8.0 in August from a reading of 0.0 the month before.

 

At press time, US 10-year Treasury rates were lingering at 3.05%, the highest level in a month, despite small advances for the day on Wall Street. S&P 500 Futures have been declining somewhat as of press time, which is notable.

 

DXY volatility may be constrained in the future by the light schedule preceding the North American session. Next, keep an eye on the US Durable Goods Orders for July, which are predicted to rise 0.6% after rising 2.0% in June. As markets try to predict the Fed's next move, Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed will be crucial.

 

DXY bears are threatened by a rising support line that has been in place for two weeks near 108.00, but the buyers won't be convinced until the uptrend is confirmed above 109.30.