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On January 13th, Julius Baer economist David A. Meyer stated in a report that market optimism regarding the yens potential benefit from the Bank of Japans policy normalization and other G10 central bank easing measures is waning. While the interest rate differential between Japan and the US is narrowing, and this trend is likely to continue with further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the yen remains weak with limited upside potential. Meyer pointed out that the recent decoupling of the yen from interest rate dynamics reflects investor concerns about Japans expansionary fiscal policies following a leadership change, while the countrys high public debt levels are also seen as a potential risk. He lowered his yen forecast, predicting the USD/JPY exchange rate will reach 155 in three months and 149 in one year, and stated that the yen is unlikely to be a major beneficiary of a weakening dollar by 2026.Roszarubezhneft, a Russian company: All of the companys assets in Venezuela are owned by Russia and were acquired by Russia at market prices.January 13th - The Hengqin-Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zones Standard System for Integrated Home-Based and Community-Based Elderly Care Services was officially released today. This standard system, jointly released by the Cooperation Zones Livelihood Affairs Bureau and the Macao SAR Governments Social Welfare Bureau, is the first standardized achievement nationwide focusing on the alignment and cross-border integration of elderly care service rules between Hengqin and Macao. Feng Fangdan, Director of the Cooperation Zones Livelihood Affairs Bureau, stated that the Cooperation Zone, in collaboration with Macao, has established a standard system for cross-border home-based and community-based elderly care services that integrates the experiences of both places, achieving "same standards and same processes" for services in both regions, allowing elderly people in Hengqin and Macao to enjoy high-quality elderly care services. The Cooperation Zone will next promote the comprehensive implementation and continuous optimization of the system, further deepening and solidifying the integration of elderly care services between Hengqin and Macao, and creating a benchmark model for cross-border elderly care services in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.RIA Novosti: Russian forces have launched a large-scale attack on Ukraines energy and military industrial facilities.Morgan Stanley predicts that the overall inflation rate for the December CPI report, to be released later today, will reach 0.37% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year. Core inflation is expected to be 0.36% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year. Morgan Stanley cites two key reasons for this relatively hawkish forecast: firstly, the November survey data was collected later, and secondly, the inflation level in cities using the bi-monthly survey model is higher. According to their calculations, these two factors will push the December core inflation rate up by approximately 11 basis points. Overall, Morgan Stanley expects the report to show a significant rebound in price pressures after the recent period of weakness. This could reverse the market narrative that the "inflation decline is merely paused, not restarted."

The US Dollar Index is trying to regain 109 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders data from Jackson Hole

Alina Haynes

Aug 24, 2022 15:26

截屏2022-08-24 上午10.16.07.png 

 

As traders wait for the day's significant triggers amid a sluggish opening, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its rise toward the multi-year high established in July, adding bids to 108.60 in the Asian session on Wednesday.

 

The dollar index dropped from a multi-year high of 109.27 against the six major currencies the day before yesterday. While the present downturn in US data is driving the quote to retreat, the DXY bulls are supported by concerns of an economic slowdown and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) quick rate hikes.

 

The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, was quoted by Reuters as saying that misreading the underlying inflation dynamics is the biggest worry. If the Fed sees inflation creeping closer to their target of 2%, they may slow their rate of rate hikes, according to the official.

 

However, traders in fed funds futures are pricing in a 52.5% chance of a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) at the upcoming Fed meeting. On Monday, Reuters reported that a rate hike of 50 basis points in September was somewhat more likely than 50 percent.

 

Preliminary readings released on Tuesday by the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August showed a decline to 51.3 from 52.0 expected and 52.2 earlier, while the Services index plunged to 44.1 from 47.3 compared to 49.2 market expectations. As reported by S&P Global, the Composite PMI has fallen to 45, the lowest level in 27 months, signaling a potential crisis for the US economy.

 

In addition, the number of newly constructed homes sold in the United States dropped to 0.511 million in July, down from 0.585 million the previous month and 0.575 million the market had predicted. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -8.0 in August from a reading of 0.0 the month before.

 

At press time, US 10-year Treasury rates were lingering at 3.05%, the highest level in a month, despite small advances for the day on Wall Street. S&P 500 Futures have been declining somewhat as of press time, which is notable.

 

DXY volatility may be constrained in the future by the light schedule preceding the North American session. Next, keep an eye on the US Durable Goods Orders for July, which are predicted to rise 0.6% after rising 2.0% in June. As markets try to predict the Fed's next move, Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed will be crucial.

 

DXY bears are threatened by a rising support line that has been in place for two weeks near 108.00, but the buyers won't be convinced until the uptrend is confirmed above 109.30.