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On February 13th, JPMorgan strategists recommended selling two-year U.S. Treasury bonds as a "tactical" move, arguing that the U.S. economic growth outlook remains robust, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates significantly. The strategist team wrote in a report, "The economic fundamentals are strong, and once Kevin Warshs nomination is confirmed and he takes over as Fed chair, it will be very difficult for him to influence the decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)." The U.S. will release a key inflation report on Friday, which could provide clues to the Feds next move. If it shows easing price pressures, demand for short-term, policy-sensitive Treasuries may rise. This week, Treasury yields fluctuated, influenced by a sell-off in tech stocks and strong U.S. jobs data, sparking discussions about how Warsh, Trumps nominee for next Fed chair, will handle policy.February 13th - The overnight SHIBOR was 1.2710%, down 9.70 basis points; the 7-day SHIBOR was 1.4300%, down 8.80 basis points; the 14-day SHIBOR was 1.5110%, down 7.20 basis points; the 1-month SHIBOR was 1.5500%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 3-month SHIBOR was 1.5790%, down 0.10 basis points.On February 13th, Futures News reported that regarding refining costs, crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical risk premiums, resulting in high refining costs. Gasoline wholesale prices rebounded before the holiday, leading to a corrective improvement in the gasoline refining spread. Diesel demand remained weak, with wholesale prices hovering at low levels, causing the diesel refining spread to continue declining. As of the crude oil closing price on February 11th: the domestic gasoline refining spread was 791.74 yuan/ton, a rebound of 63.23 yuan/ton compared to the end of January; the domestic diesel refining spread was 214.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.54 yuan/ton compared to the end of January. The high crude oil costs are unlikely to diminish their suppressive effect on gasoline and diesel refining spreads in the future.Huawei Chinas official Weibo account announced that the Huawei China Partner Conference 2026 will be held from March 19th to 20th.February 13th - The National Hydrogen Energy Storage and Transportation Equipment Quality Inspection and Testing Center (Guangdong) has recently received formal approval from the State Administration for Market Regulation for its establishment. The Guangdong Provincial Special Equipment Inspection and Research Institute (Guangdong Provincial Special Equipment Accident Investigation Center), under the Guangdong Provincial Administration for Market Regulation, is responsible for its construction. The establishment of this center is an important measure by the State Administration for Market Regulation to promote the construction of a manufacturing powerhouse and a quality powerhouse, marking a new stage in the high-quality development of the hydrogen energy industry in South China. Located in Foshan, a hydrogen energy industry cluster, the center will provide crucial support for the safe development, technological innovation, and standard setting of the hydrogen energy industry in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and even nationwide.

The US Dollar Index is trying to regain 109 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders data from Jackson Hole

Alina Haynes

Aug 24, 2022 15:26

截屏2022-08-24 上午10.16.07.png 

 

As traders wait for the day's significant triggers amid a sluggish opening, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its rise toward the multi-year high established in July, adding bids to 108.60 in the Asian session on Wednesday.

 

The dollar index dropped from a multi-year high of 109.27 against the six major currencies the day before yesterday. While the present downturn in US data is driving the quote to retreat, the DXY bulls are supported by concerns of an economic slowdown and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) quick rate hikes.

 

The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, was quoted by Reuters as saying that misreading the underlying inflation dynamics is the biggest worry. If the Fed sees inflation creeping closer to their target of 2%, they may slow their rate of rate hikes, according to the official.

 

However, traders in fed funds futures are pricing in a 52.5% chance of a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) at the upcoming Fed meeting. On Monday, Reuters reported that a rate hike of 50 basis points in September was somewhat more likely than 50 percent.

 

Preliminary readings released on Tuesday by the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August showed a decline to 51.3 from 52.0 expected and 52.2 earlier, while the Services index plunged to 44.1 from 47.3 compared to 49.2 market expectations. As reported by S&P Global, the Composite PMI has fallen to 45, the lowest level in 27 months, signaling a potential crisis for the US economy.

 

In addition, the number of newly constructed homes sold in the United States dropped to 0.511 million in July, down from 0.585 million the previous month and 0.575 million the market had predicted. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -8.0 in August from a reading of 0.0 the month before.

 

At press time, US 10-year Treasury rates were lingering at 3.05%, the highest level in a month, despite small advances for the day on Wall Street. S&P 500 Futures have been declining somewhat as of press time, which is notable.

 

DXY volatility may be constrained in the future by the light schedule preceding the North American session. Next, keep an eye on the US Durable Goods Orders for July, which are predicted to rise 0.6% after rising 2.0% in June. As markets try to predict the Fed's next move, Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed will be crucial.

 

DXY bears are threatened by a rising support line that has been in place for two weeks near 108.00, but the buyers won't be convinced until the uptrend is confirmed above 109.30.