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On April 18, 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held its 53rd International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) meeting in Washington, D.C., to discuss the global economic and financial situation and the IMFs work. Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC), attended and addressed the meeting. Xuan Changneng, Vice Governor of the PBOC, also participated. Pan Gongsheng pointed out that the rapidly changing international economic and trade environment requires the IMF to further strengthen its economic monitoring functions. Trade policy uncertainty remains high, and the negative supply shocks triggered by the Middle East situation will have a lasting impact on the global economy and financial markets. The IMF should further strengthen economic monitoring and propose more targeted policy recommendations based on an objective assessment of risks. At the same time, it should strengthen its monitoring of fiscal risks and their spillover effects in major developed economies, emphasizing that trade protectionism cannot solve global imbalances, and that stable, rational, and predictable cooperation is particularly valuable.US-Iran-US Conflict: ① Iran 1. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that the resistance front issued warnings to ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. 2. Irans Deputy Foreign Minister: Iran demands a complete end to the conflict across the region. 3. A senior Iranian official stated that lifting the freeze on Iranian assets is part of the agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz, but did not provide a specific timetable. 4. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament: Trumps seven social media statements are "all untrue." 5. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: We do not support the proposals made by US officials and their media regarding the Iranian nuclear issue. ② The US 1. Trump posted consecutive messages: Iran has fully opened the "Iran Strait," and the maritime blockade against Iran will remain fully effective. The US will obtain all of Irans nuclear "dust." Israel will no longer bomb Lebanon. NATO is useless on the Strait of Hormuz issue. 2. US Central Command: The US military is still "closely monitoring every Iranian port." 3. According to CBS: Trump stated that Iran has agreed to stop supporting proxy groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. 4. The US aircraft carrier USS Ford returned to the Red Sea. ③ Israel 1. Israel announced the basic lifting of wartime restrictions. 2. Israeli Defense Minister: The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is a temporary measure. After the temporary ceasefire ends, the disarmament of Hezbollah forces south of the Litani River will continue. 3. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: We will not disclose specific details of what actions we will take in Lebanon in the future. We have not yet completed our actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon. ⑤ Strait of Hormuz 1. Iranian Parliament Speaker: We will never relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Iranian Foreign Ministry: The US maritime blockade violates the ceasefire agreement. 3. Iranian Foreign Ministry: There has been no new agreement between Iran and the United States on the Strait of Hormuz issue. 4. Commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy: The enemy attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire, forcing them to retreat. 5. Shipping tracking data shows that almost all ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz turned back on Friday evening local time. 6. Kropp data shows that 24 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. 7. Iranian Foreign Minister: In light of the ceasefire reached between Lebanon and Israel, Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz to all merchant ships during the ceasefire period. 8. Iranian Foreign Ministry: Non-military vessels are permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. 9. US officials stated that the US militarys blockade of Iran remains in effect. 10. The US military stated that 19 ships were forced to return to port during the blockade of Iran, and no ships broke through the blockade. 11. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: The Strait of Hormuz is open, and ships are passing through. 12. UN shipping agency: Currently verifying the announcement regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to confirm whether it meets the requirements of freedom of navigation. 13. Iranian officials: If the US maritime blockade of Iran continues, Iran will consider this a violation of the ceasefire agreement and will close the Strait of Hormuz again. 14. Iranian domestic media expressed concern about the US Foreign Ministers opening of the Strait of Hormuz. ⑥ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. The US is considering resuming negotiations with Iran in Pakistan within days. 2. Senior Iranian official: Iran and the US are expected to reach a preliminary agreement within days. 3. Iranian official: Iran and the US are drafting a memorandum of understanding to set a framework for a permanent peace agreement. 4. Gulf officials: Trump is eager to end the war and may accept more compromises. 5. US media: The US plans to unfreeze $20 billion in exchange for Iran abandoning uranium enrichment; US-Iran talks may be held in Islamabad on Sunday. 6. Hezbollah parliamentary group in Lebanon expressed "cautious support" for a ceasefire, but emphasized that the ceasefire must be comprehensive. 7. According to CBS: Trump said Iran has agreed to stop supporting Hezbollah and proxy groups such as Hamas. 8. Iranian sources said the next round of US-Iran talks will be held in Pakistan on Monday. ④ Other situations: 1. US media: Trump said Israel "banned" bombing of Lebanon; Israel seeks clarification. 2. Lebanese media reported that southern Lebanon is still being shelled after the ceasefire.On April 18, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a general license related to Russia, allowing the delivery and sale of shipped Russian crude oil and petroleum products, effective April 17. The Treasury Department stated that the authorization is valid until May 16.U.S. Treasury Department: The license allows for the delivery and sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded on ships, starting April 17.U.S. Treasury Department: Issuing general licenses related to Russia.

The US Dollar Index is trying to regain 109 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders data from Jackson Hole

Alina Haynes

Aug 24, 2022 15:26

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As traders wait for the day's significant triggers amid a sluggish opening, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its rise toward the multi-year high established in July, adding bids to 108.60 in the Asian session on Wednesday.

 

The dollar index dropped from a multi-year high of 109.27 against the six major currencies the day before yesterday. While the present downturn in US data is driving the quote to retreat, the DXY bulls are supported by concerns of an economic slowdown and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) quick rate hikes.

 

The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, was quoted by Reuters as saying that misreading the underlying inflation dynamics is the biggest worry. If the Fed sees inflation creeping closer to their target of 2%, they may slow their rate of rate hikes, according to the official.

 

However, traders in fed funds futures are pricing in a 52.5% chance of a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) at the upcoming Fed meeting. On Monday, Reuters reported that a rate hike of 50 basis points in September was somewhat more likely than 50 percent.

 

Preliminary readings released on Tuesday by the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August showed a decline to 51.3 from 52.0 expected and 52.2 earlier, while the Services index plunged to 44.1 from 47.3 compared to 49.2 market expectations. As reported by S&P Global, the Composite PMI has fallen to 45, the lowest level in 27 months, signaling a potential crisis for the US economy.

 

In addition, the number of newly constructed homes sold in the United States dropped to 0.511 million in July, down from 0.585 million the previous month and 0.575 million the market had predicted. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -8.0 in August from a reading of 0.0 the month before.

 

At press time, US 10-year Treasury rates were lingering at 3.05%, the highest level in a month, despite small advances for the day on Wall Street. S&P 500 Futures have been declining somewhat as of press time, which is notable.

 

DXY volatility may be constrained in the future by the light schedule preceding the North American session. Next, keep an eye on the US Durable Goods Orders for July, which are predicted to rise 0.6% after rising 2.0% in June. As markets try to predict the Fed's next move, Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed will be crucial.

 

DXY bears are threatened by a rising support line that has been in place for two weeks near 108.00, but the buyers won't be convinced until the uptrend is confirmed above 109.30.