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According to Al Jazeera, Iranian-backed Iraqi armed groups have warned that they will resume attacks as the ceasefire deadline approaches.According to CNN: U.S. Vice President Vances motorcade departed from the White House at 6:13 p.m. local time on Monday (6:13 a.m. Beijing time on the 21st).On April 21st, the Dark Side of the Moon officially launched and open-sourced its new model, Kimi K2.6. According to the official benchmark results, its coding capabilities are on par with or surpass GPT 5.4 and Opus 4.6.US-Israel-Iran Conflict: ① Iran 1. Iran resumes flights at two airports. 2. Iranian official: Supreme Leader is in full health. 3. Iranian Parliament Speaker: Iran will not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats. 4. Iranian Foreign Minister tells Pakistani Foreign Minister that the USs "continued violation of the ceasefire" is the main obstacle to the continuation of the diplomatic process. 5. Iranian Armed Forces Spokesperson: We are prepared to confront the US after the US launched an "aggressive" action against an Iranian vessel. 6. Israeli media reports that Iran has softened its stance on abandoning its enriched uranium stockpile; the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded that the option of transferring Irans enriched uranium stockpile to the US or any other country is not on the agenda. 7. Irans Supreme Leader reiterated three basic positions: to hold those responsible for the attack accountable and demand compensation for the losses caused by the war, to push for a new phase in the management of the Strait of Hormuz, and to never relinquish its legitimate rights and regard all "resistance fronts" in the region as a unified whole. ② US 1. The US military says the blockade has forced 27 ships to turn back. 2. The US military admits to firing on and intercepting an Iranian cargo ship; footage of the incident has been released. 3. Trump: No pressure to reach an Iran deal, no external pressure. 4. Trump: The new agreement being reached with Iran will be much better than the Iran nuclear deal. 5. Trump claims to be winning the war and will not lift the blockade on Iran until an "agreement" is reached. ⑤ Strait of Hormuz 1. Iran pledges to ensure unimpeded passage of Russian ships through the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Indian government officials: As of now, 10 Indian ships have safely passed through the Strait of Hormuz. 3. Kuwait declares oil shipments affected by force majeure due to obstructed navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. 4. According to British sources on the 20th, at least 26 ships involved in Iranian shipping have broken through the US military blockade. ⑥ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. US President Trump: Vice President Vance will travel to Pakistan later on the 20th, and a new round of US-Iran negotiations is scheduled to begin on the 21st. 2. US media: Pakistan has intensified diplomatic contacts with Washington and Tehran since Sunday to ensure negotiations can begin as early as Tuesday. 3. Trump: "Highly unlikely" to extend the ceasefire agreement with Iran and expects to resume military operations against Iran immediately. The Strait of Hormuz will not be opened before an agreement is signed. 4. Pakistani security sources: Pakistani Army Chief of Staff Munir spoke with US President Trump, informing him that his blockade of Iranian ports was an obstacle to negotiations. Trump told Munir he would consider his suggestions. 5. Iranian parliamentary official: Iran has decided to continue negotiations with the US, but this "does not mean negotiating at all costs," nor does it mean accepting "any actions taken by the other side." If a positive signal is received from the US, the Iranian delegation will travel to Islamabad. 6. Iranian sources say the continued US naval blockade of Iran is a key obstacle to current negotiations. A senior Iranian official said Iran is actively reviewing its participation in peace talks with the US, but no final decision has been made yet. 7. Senior Iranian source: Disagreements over the nuclear program remain unresolved, and the gap has not narrowed. Irans "defense capabilities," including its missile program, are not within the scope of negotiations. 8. US media: Two senior Iranian officials revealed that the Iranian delegation plans to travel to Islamabad on Tuesday for negotiations with the US. The two officials stated that if US Vice President Vance attends the negotiations, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf will also be present. 9. According to Al Jazeera, citing Pakistani sources, the Iranian delegation is expected to arrive Tuesday morning, close to the arrival time of the US delegation. ④ Other situations: 1. Iranian Ambassador to Russia: Reports regarding Russia providing intelligence to Iran are untrue. 2. According to Saudi Arabias Al Arabiya television, Lebanon and Israel will hold a new round of negotiations on April 23.Google: Expanding Geminis availability in Chrome to users in the Asia-Pacific region.

The US Dollar Index is trying to regain 109 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders data from Jackson Hole

Alina Haynes

Aug 24, 2022 15:26

截屏2022-08-24 上午10.16.07.png 

 

As traders wait for the day's significant triggers amid a sluggish opening, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its rise toward the multi-year high established in July, adding bids to 108.60 in the Asian session on Wednesday.

 

The dollar index dropped from a multi-year high of 109.27 against the six major currencies the day before yesterday. While the present downturn in US data is driving the quote to retreat, the DXY bulls are supported by concerns of an economic slowdown and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) quick rate hikes.

 

The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, was quoted by Reuters as saying that misreading the underlying inflation dynamics is the biggest worry. If the Fed sees inflation creeping closer to their target of 2%, they may slow their rate of rate hikes, according to the official.

 

However, traders in fed funds futures are pricing in a 52.5% chance of a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) at the upcoming Fed meeting. On Monday, Reuters reported that a rate hike of 50 basis points in September was somewhat more likely than 50 percent.

 

Preliminary readings released on Tuesday by the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August showed a decline to 51.3 from 52.0 expected and 52.2 earlier, while the Services index plunged to 44.1 from 47.3 compared to 49.2 market expectations. As reported by S&P Global, the Composite PMI has fallen to 45, the lowest level in 27 months, signaling a potential crisis for the US economy.

 

In addition, the number of newly constructed homes sold in the United States dropped to 0.511 million in July, down from 0.585 million the previous month and 0.575 million the market had predicted. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -8.0 in August from a reading of 0.0 the month before.

 

At press time, US 10-year Treasury rates were lingering at 3.05%, the highest level in a month, despite small advances for the day on Wall Street. S&P 500 Futures have been declining somewhat as of press time, which is notable.

 

DXY volatility may be constrained in the future by the light schedule preceding the North American session. Next, keep an eye on the US Durable Goods Orders for July, which are predicted to rise 0.6% after rising 2.0% in June. As markets try to predict the Fed's next move, Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed will be crucial.

 

DXY bears are threatened by a rising support line that has been in place for two weeks near 108.00, but the buyers won't be convinced until the uptrend is confirmed above 109.30.