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April 24 – A survey released Friday showed that U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in nearly four years in April, impacted by inflation concerns stemming from the escalating conflict with Iran. The University of Michigans Consumer Survey Center reported a final reading of 49.8 for the month, the lowest level since June 2022. However, this figure is a slight improvement from 47.6 reported earlier this month. The index was 53.3 in March. "Consumer confidence has recovered some of the losses from the beginning of the month after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire and a slight drop in gasoline prices," said Joanne Hsu, director of the Consumer Survey Center. "The conflict with Iran appears to be primarily affecting consumer sentiment by impacting gasoline prices and other potential prices. In contrast, military and diplomatic developments that fail to ease supply constraints or lower energy prices are unlikely to boost consumer confidence."Following Washington, D.C. Attorney General Piros announcement that the investigation into Powell was halted, federal funds rate swap pricing indicated that expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year have further intensified.U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter: The dollars dominance and reserve currency status have been further strengthened.U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, Piro, said: "If necessary, we will not hesitate to reopen the investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell."U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, Robert Piro, announced the suspension of the investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powells construction costs. The Federal Reserve Inspector General has been asked to review the Feds spending.

The US Dollar Index is trying to regain 109 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders data from Jackson Hole

Alina Haynes

Aug 24, 2022 15:26

截屏2022-08-24 上午10.16.07.png 

 

As traders wait for the day's significant triggers amid a sluggish opening, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its rise toward the multi-year high established in July, adding bids to 108.60 in the Asian session on Wednesday.

 

The dollar index dropped from a multi-year high of 109.27 against the six major currencies the day before yesterday. While the present downturn in US data is driving the quote to retreat, the DXY bulls are supported by concerns of an economic slowdown and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) quick rate hikes.

 

The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, was quoted by Reuters as saying that misreading the underlying inflation dynamics is the biggest worry. If the Fed sees inflation creeping closer to their target of 2%, they may slow their rate of rate hikes, according to the official.

 

However, traders in fed funds futures are pricing in a 52.5% chance of a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) at the upcoming Fed meeting. On Monday, Reuters reported that a rate hike of 50 basis points in September was somewhat more likely than 50 percent.

 

Preliminary readings released on Tuesday by the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August showed a decline to 51.3 from 52.0 expected and 52.2 earlier, while the Services index plunged to 44.1 from 47.3 compared to 49.2 market expectations. As reported by S&P Global, the Composite PMI has fallen to 45, the lowest level in 27 months, signaling a potential crisis for the US economy.

 

In addition, the number of newly constructed homes sold in the United States dropped to 0.511 million in July, down from 0.585 million the previous month and 0.575 million the market had predicted. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -8.0 in August from a reading of 0.0 the month before.

 

At press time, US 10-year Treasury rates were lingering at 3.05%, the highest level in a month, despite small advances for the day on Wall Street. S&P 500 Futures have been declining somewhat as of press time, which is notable.

 

DXY volatility may be constrained in the future by the light schedule preceding the North American session. Next, keep an eye on the US Durable Goods Orders for July, which are predicted to rise 0.6% after rising 2.0% in June. As markets try to predict the Fed's next move, Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed will be crucial.

 

DXY bears are threatened by a rising support line that has been in place for two weeks near 108.00, but the buyers won't be convinced until the uptrend is confirmed above 109.30.


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