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February 17th, Futures News – According to foreign media reports, gold prices currently appear to be consolidating around $5,000, but this doesnt mean the precious metal will remain there indefinitely – an international bank has raised its second-quarter gold price target. ANZ commodities analysts stated in their latest gold report that they expect gold prices to reach $5,800 per ounce in the second quarter, a significant upward revision from their previous target of $5,400. The analysts stated, "Although recent market volatility has raised questions about whether gold prices have peaked, we believe this rally is not yet mature and will not reverse in the short term." Gold prices have fallen sharply from their historical high of nearly $5,600 last month, causing some investors to worry about a potential price crash, similar to the price movements after the highs of 1980 or 2011. However, ANZ points out that the current market environment is very different, with gold prices receiving strong support as the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least twice this year. Easing inflationary pressures are also driving the market to price in a third rate cut before December. Analysts say they expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice, in March and June respectively. This will continue to lower real interest rates, supporting inflows into gold. Geopolitical and economic uncertainties are expected to persist, with Trump continuing to use tariffs as a threat. The market is gradually focusing on the potential impact of tariffs, an impact that has not yet been fully reflected in economic and inflation data.February 17th - US President Trump pressured Ukraine on the 16th to reach an agreement with Russia "quickly." Answering reporters questions aboard Air Force One that day, Trump said the new round of US-Russia-Ukraine talks in Geneva on the 17th was important and would be "very easy." Trump specifically named Ukraine: "Ukraine had better get back to the negotiating table quickly... Were in position, and we hope they come."The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has announced that ExxonMobil (XOM.N) will be fined A$16 million for making misleading statements about fuel sales at nine petrol stations.Faraday Future Co-CEO Jia Yueting: Faraday Future will launch the EAI Robotics Improvement Plan and recommends major adjustments to AIxC.February 17th - A report recently released by the Peoples Bank of China shows that by the end of 2025, total asset management assets reached 120 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%. The scale of asset management products grew rapidly, with new assets mainly invested in interbank deposits and certificates of deposit. According to the report, by the end of 2025, asset management products held a total of 28.7 trillion yuan in interbank deposits and certificates of deposit, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, with a cumulative increase of 4.6 trillion yuan throughout the year, accounting for about half of all new underlying assets of asset management, an increase of more than 20 percentage points compared with the same period of the previous year. The report emphasizes that as my countrys financial market continues to deepen, direct financing is developing rapidly, and financing channels are becoming more diversified, residents savings assets will be allocated and selected more diversified between bank deposits and financial assets such as asset management products.

The US Dollar Index is trying to regain 109 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders data from Jackson Hole

Alina Haynes

Aug 24, 2022 15:26

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As traders wait for the day's significant triggers amid a sluggish opening, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its rise toward the multi-year high established in July, adding bids to 108.60 in the Asian session on Wednesday.

 

The dollar index dropped from a multi-year high of 109.27 against the six major currencies the day before yesterday. While the present downturn in US data is driving the quote to retreat, the DXY bulls are supported by concerns of an economic slowdown and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) quick rate hikes.

 

The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, was quoted by Reuters as saying that misreading the underlying inflation dynamics is the biggest worry. If the Fed sees inflation creeping closer to their target of 2%, they may slow their rate of rate hikes, according to the official.

 

However, traders in fed funds futures are pricing in a 52.5% chance of a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) at the upcoming Fed meeting. On Monday, Reuters reported that a rate hike of 50 basis points in September was somewhat more likely than 50 percent.

 

Preliminary readings released on Tuesday by the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August showed a decline to 51.3 from 52.0 expected and 52.2 earlier, while the Services index plunged to 44.1 from 47.3 compared to 49.2 market expectations. As reported by S&P Global, the Composite PMI has fallen to 45, the lowest level in 27 months, signaling a potential crisis for the US economy.

 

In addition, the number of newly constructed homes sold in the United States dropped to 0.511 million in July, down from 0.585 million the previous month and 0.575 million the market had predicted. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -8.0 in August from a reading of 0.0 the month before.

 

At press time, US 10-year Treasury rates were lingering at 3.05%, the highest level in a month, despite small advances for the day on Wall Street. S&P 500 Futures have been declining somewhat as of press time, which is notable.

 

DXY volatility may be constrained in the future by the light schedule preceding the North American session. Next, keep an eye on the US Durable Goods Orders for July, which are predicted to rise 0.6% after rising 2.0% in June. As markets try to predict the Fed's next move, Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed will be crucial.

 

DXY bears are threatened by a rising support line that has been in place for two weeks near 108.00, but the buyers won't be convinced until the uptrend is confirmed above 109.30.