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On January 27th, Michael Krutzberg, Chief Investment Officer of Public Markets at Allianz Global Investors, stated that with the exception of dovish Governor Milan, who may have objections, the Federal Reserves decision to maintain interest rates this week is expected to receive support from all other voting members. In a report, he noted that since this meeting will not update the summary of economic projections or the dot plot, market focus will shift to the extent to which Chairman Powell will respond to the current challenges to the Feds independence posed by executive power. Krutzberg believes that Powells comments on this issue at the press conference may have a greater impact on the market than the interest rate decision itself—especially any hints regarding his plans to remain on the board until 2028 after his term as chairman ends in May.The CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) of the United Arab Emirates said that oil demand will remain above 1 billion barrels per day from now until 2040.Chairman of the Trade Committee of the South Korean National Assembly: The ruling party and the main opposition party have reached an agreement on US investment and tariffs.On January 27, South Koreas Minister for Trade Negotiations, Yeo Han-koo, stated that the South Korean government is still working to clarify the background of US President Trumps social media post threatening to raise tariffs and what measures Seoul can take. Yeo said he plans to visit the US soon to meet with his counterparts at the US Trade Representatives office in order to find a reasonable solution between the two governments.January 27th - European car sales are projected to grow for the third consecutive year in 2025, driven by consumers opting for more affordable electric and hybrid models. Data released Tuesday by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (EASA) shows that European car sales rose 7.6% in December, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth and pushing total new car registrations up 2.4% to 13.3 million units for the year. While this is good news for the automotive industry, which has been struggling with tariffs and increased competition, sales are still about 15% lower than pre-pandemic levels. The overall growth was partly driven by a rebound in electric vehicle sales last year. Data shows that pure electric vehicle registrations surged 30%, accounting for about one-fifth of the overall market share. In the first half of 2025, consumers were hesitant due to market turmoil and economic uncertainty caused by Trumps tariff policies, only returning to the market in the second half as registrations continued to recover. Analyst Gillian Davis predicts that European car sales may climb again this year, thanks to a new round of subsidies and the launch of several new-generation models.

The US Dollar Index is trying to regain 109 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders data from Jackson Hole

Alina Haynes

Aug 24, 2022 15:26

截屏2022-08-24 上午10.16.07.png 

 

As traders wait for the day's significant triggers amid a sluggish opening, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its rise toward the multi-year high established in July, adding bids to 108.60 in the Asian session on Wednesday.

 

The dollar index dropped from a multi-year high of 109.27 against the six major currencies the day before yesterday. While the present downturn in US data is driving the quote to retreat, the DXY bulls are supported by concerns of an economic slowdown and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) quick rate hikes.

 

The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, was quoted by Reuters as saying that misreading the underlying inflation dynamics is the biggest worry. If the Fed sees inflation creeping closer to their target of 2%, they may slow their rate of rate hikes, according to the official.

 

However, traders in fed funds futures are pricing in a 52.5% chance of a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) at the upcoming Fed meeting. On Monday, Reuters reported that a rate hike of 50 basis points in September was somewhat more likely than 50 percent.

 

Preliminary readings released on Tuesday by the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August showed a decline to 51.3 from 52.0 expected and 52.2 earlier, while the Services index plunged to 44.1 from 47.3 compared to 49.2 market expectations. As reported by S&P Global, the Composite PMI has fallen to 45, the lowest level in 27 months, signaling a potential crisis for the US economy.

 

In addition, the number of newly constructed homes sold in the United States dropped to 0.511 million in July, down from 0.585 million the previous month and 0.575 million the market had predicted. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -8.0 in August from a reading of 0.0 the month before.

 

At press time, US 10-year Treasury rates were lingering at 3.05%, the highest level in a month, despite small advances for the day on Wall Street. S&P 500 Futures have been declining somewhat as of press time, which is notable.

 

DXY volatility may be constrained in the future by the light schedule preceding the North American session. Next, keep an eye on the US Durable Goods Orders for July, which are predicted to rise 0.6% after rising 2.0% in June. As markets try to predict the Fed's next move, Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed will be crucial.

 

DXY bears are threatened by a rising support line that has been in place for two weeks near 108.00, but the buyers won't be convinced until the uptrend is confirmed above 109.30.


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