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1. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.34% to 49,240.99 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.84% to 6,917.81 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.43% to 23,255.19 points. Salesforce fell nearly 7%, and IBM fell more than 6%, leading the Dows decline. Walmart rose nearly 3%, pushing its market capitalization above $1 trillion. The Wind U.S. Tech Big Seven Index fell 1.62%, with Microsoft and Nvidia both falling nearly 3%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.94%, with Daqo New Energy and Bilibili both falling more than 4%. Investors sold off tech stocks, and the Nasdaq almost completely wiped out its year-to-date gains. The partial U.S. government shutdown will prevent the January jobs report from being released this Friday as scheduled. 2. European stock markets closed slightly lower. The German DAX index fell 0.07% to 24,781.38 points, the French CAC40 index fell 0.02% to 8,179.5 points, and the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.26% to 10,314.59 points. A market correction was triggered by a sharp decline in global AI stocks, uncertainty surrounding the pace of the Federal Reserves interest rate cuts, fundamental problems in the European economy, high market valuations, and profit-taking pressure. 3. US Treasury yields were mixed. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.01 basis points to 3.570%, the 3-year Treasury yield rose 0.01 basis points to 3.643%, the 5-year Treasury yield fell 0.34 basis points to 3.832%, the 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.59 basis points to 4.266%, and the 30-year Treasury yield fell 1.76 basis points to 4.895%. 4. International precious metals futures generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 6.83% to $4,970.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 10.27% to $84.92 per ounce. Signals of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, the end of the US government shutdown, and progress on the US-India trade agreement, coupled with adjustments to risk control measures by exchanges, all boosted market sentiment and drove prices higher. 5. The main WTI crude oil contract closed up 2.83% at $63.9 per barrel; the main Brent crude oil contract rose 2.55% to $67.99 per barrel. Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 11.079 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations, indicating a contraction in market supply and pushing up oil prices. 6. Most London base metals rose, with LME tin up 7.95% to $50,295.0/ton, LME copper up 4.02% to $13,410.0/ton, LME nickel up 3.38% to $17,395.0/ton, LME aluminum up 1.41% to $3,099.0/ton, LME zinc down 0.02% to $3,323.0/ton, and LME lead down 0.08% to $1,961.5/ton.Conflict Situation: 1. Kharkiv, Ukraine, has activated its emergency response mechanism. 2. Ukraines power company, DTEK, stated that last nights Russian airstrikes were the largest attack on the energy system since early 2026. 3. The mayor of Kharkiv stated that nearly 270,000 Kharkiv residents are still without heating after the Russian attacks. Peace Negotiations: 1. Ukraine agreed to a multi-tiered plan to implement a potential ceasefire agreement with Russia. 2. Zelensky: The UAE talks aimed to assess Russias willingness to compromise. Ukraine will remain open to similar proposals from the United States, such as a cessation of attacks. Other Developments: 1. Zelensky approved Ukraines new defense plan framework. 2. Zelensky: Ukraine is negotiating with the United States for more Patriot missiles. 3. NATO Secretary General: NATO military support will arrive in Ukraine immediately after a peace agreement is reached. 4. European Commission spokesperson: Ursula von der Leyen will visit Ukraine on the fourth anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 5. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov stated that Russias nuclear triad modernization has reached a very advanced stage. February 4th - Barbara Hampton, CEO of U.S. Rare Earth Corporation, stated that the company has over $3 billion in potential funding to build a domestic rare earth and critical mineral supply chain. Hampton anticipates that the funding includes up to $1.6 billion in grants from the U.S. Department of Commerce, with the remainder coming from the private sector. She stated that this would enable the Round Top deposit to begin production by 2028. She said, "Our current communications indicate that the U.S. government is willing to make procurement commitments several years earlier to ensure supply stability." Following the governments announcement of a $12 billion critical mineral reserve plan, the companys stock price rose over 17% on Tuesday. It should be noted that federal funding is contingent on achieving phased goals, and private sector investments have not yet been finalized. However, Hampton emphasized that this funding will allow the company to accelerate its plans.A U.S. judge issued a temporary restraining order restricting Portland, Oregons Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency from taking any action against peaceful protesters and journalists.OpenAI issued a statement regarding the ChatGPT outage: All affected services have now been fully restored.

The US Dollar Index is trying to regain 109 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders data from Jackson Hole

Alina Haynes

Aug 24, 2022 15:26

截屏2022-08-24 上午10.16.07.png 

 

As traders wait for the day's significant triggers amid a sluggish opening, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its rise toward the multi-year high established in July, adding bids to 108.60 in the Asian session on Wednesday.

 

The dollar index dropped from a multi-year high of 109.27 against the six major currencies the day before yesterday. While the present downturn in US data is driving the quote to retreat, the DXY bulls are supported by concerns of an economic slowdown and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) quick rate hikes.

 

The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, was quoted by Reuters as saying that misreading the underlying inflation dynamics is the biggest worry. If the Fed sees inflation creeping closer to their target of 2%, they may slow their rate of rate hikes, according to the official.

 

However, traders in fed funds futures are pricing in a 52.5% chance of a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) at the upcoming Fed meeting. On Monday, Reuters reported that a rate hike of 50 basis points in September was somewhat more likely than 50 percent.

 

Preliminary readings released on Tuesday by the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August showed a decline to 51.3 from 52.0 expected and 52.2 earlier, while the Services index plunged to 44.1 from 47.3 compared to 49.2 market expectations. As reported by S&P Global, the Composite PMI has fallen to 45, the lowest level in 27 months, signaling a potential crisis for the US economy.

 

In addition, the number of newly constructed homes sold in the United States dropped to 0.511 million in July, down from 0.585 million the previous month and 0.575 million the market had predicted. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -8.0 in August from a reading of 0.0 the month before.

 

At press time, US 10-year Treasury rates were lingering at 3.05%, the highest level in a month, despite small advances for the day on Wall Street. S&P 500 Futures have been declining somewhat as of press time, which is notable.

 

DXY volatility may be constrained in the future by the light schedule preceding the North American session. Next, keep an eye on the US Durable Goods Orders for July, which are predicted to rise 0.6% after rising 2.0% in June. As markets try to predict the Fed's next move, Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed will be crucial.

 

DXY bears are threatened by a rising support line that has been in place for two weeks near 108.00, but the buyers won't be convinced until the uptrend is confirmed above 109.30.


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