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On June 25th, Westpac stated that it expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to be less likely to raise interest rates as sharply as initially anticipated. This is because an early resolution to the Iranian conflict implies a weaker inflation outlook and an earlier economic recovery. Westpac anticipates the RBNZ will begin raising rates in September, but will only raise them once more for the remainder of the year. This means the official cash rate will peak at 4.0% by the end of 2027, before falling back to a neutral level of 3.75% by the end of 2028. Previously, Westpac had predicted the rate could reach as high as 4.25%. Westpac wrote, "Our core view suggests that the RBNZ will raise rates one less time this year than our most recent forecast, but one more time than pre-conflict projections."The yield on Japans 20-year government bonds fell 1.5 basis points to 3.55%.The bid-to-cover ratio for Japans 20-year government bond auction was 2.97, the lowest level since May 2025, compared to 4.01 in May.June 25th - The 4th China International Blockchain Expo (CIE) was held in Beijing from June 22nd to 26th. It is reported that Japan had the largest number of delegations from Asian countries at this years CIE. Ten Japanese economic delegations visited China, including representatives from the Japan Business Federation (Keidanren) and the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Keidanren is Japans largest and most authoritative comprehensive economic organization, with core members encompassing leading companies across almost all sectors. The Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry is one of Japans largest national business organizations. The Kansai Economic Federation represents the Kansai region, Japans second-largest economic zone. These ten organizations broadly cover all aspects of Japans social enterprise network.June 25 – The Ministry of Ecology and Environment held its regular June press conference today (June 25). Officials stated that my country has entered its main flood season, and in response to the severe situation of potentially large fluctuations in water quality during this period, the Ministry has acted swiftly and made arrangements. Regarding abnormal water quality fluctuations during the flood season, the Ministry will promptly conduct analysis and consultations, providing point-to-point guidance to local authorities to identify the causes and accelerate rectification. Simultaneously, it will promote joint risk assessment and collaborative countermeasures between upstream and downstream areas, as well as between left and right banks of river basins, to avoid situations where "upstream pollution leads to downstream liability" or "left-bank remediation leads to right-bank relapse," thus forming a closed-loop management system for problem assignment, rectification implementation, and follow-up evaluation.

GBP/JPY struggles close to 159 as focus turns to Japan's Inflation

Alina Haynes

Jan 19, 2023 15:10

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In early Asian trade, the GBP/JPY pair is behaving erratically close to the critical level of 159.00. Following a fall from Wednesday's high above 161.50, the cross is now rangebound. Despite Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's dovish statements, the asset saw a significant decrease as GBP/JPY gave up the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy-driven gains.

 

After maintaining the interest rate at -0.10% and the 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) around 0%, BoJ Kuroda claimed that there is "no need to further extend bond target band," causing the GBP/JPY exchange rate to decline. He continued by stating that Japan's economy is continuing on the road to recovery from the epidemic, and that the Bank of Japan intends to achieve its inflation target of 2% in tandem with wage growth.

 

The nearing end of Governor Kuroda's term at the end of April will continue to fuel rumors of a policy shift under new leadership, according to analysts at MUFG who predict that the Yen sell-off will be limited and maintain an optimistic stance for the JPY in the coming year. They remarked, "We expect market participants to maintain their skepticism regarding the long-term viability of YCC policy settings."

 

The release of the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday will offer further guidance for the Japanese Yen. According to the consensus, the annual headline CPI (Dec) is expected to rise from 3.8% to 4.4%. It is anticipated that the core inflation rate, which includes oil and food prices, would rise to 2.9% from the previously reported 2.8%.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) will be dissatisfied by the United Kingdom's headline inflation decelerating to 10.5% from 10.6%, as the current CPI is much over the median rate. The market expects Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, to hike interest rates somewhat more than anticipated.


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