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On June 4th, Investinglive analyst Eamonn Sheridan stated that reports indicate Israel and Lebanon, under US guidance, have reached a framework agreement for a ceasefire, with full-scale talks scheduled to resume the week of June 22nd. However, this is contingent on Hezbollahs complete withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Geopolitical risk premiums in the oil market will likely absorb this headline, largely treating it as already priced in. This Lebanese ceasefire plan, framed by Hezbollahs adherence to the agreement and the establishment of a "pilot zone," is essentially a document aimed at advancing the process, not a final solution. The condition attached to the plan—Hezbollahs complete ceasefire and withdrawal from the Litani River region—is precisely the crux of the failures that led to previous arrangements. The market will note that the next round of substantive negotiations will not take place until the week of June 22nd, three weeks from now. If there is any definite takeaway, it is that this announcement confirms the Lebanese front remains a dynamic and unpredictable factor, rather than a settled situation. At the same time, it does not offer any substantial help in resolving the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, or in alleviating the broader US-Iran conflict that is currently driving up oil prices.U.S. State Department: All parties condemn Irans attacks on countries in the region.On June 4th, US President Trump told reporters at the White House on the 3rd that negotiations between the US and Iran were progressing well and an agreement could be reached by the end of the week. Trump said, "Ive heard the negotiations themselves are going very well, actually quite well… If an agreement is reached, it will likely be announced this weekend." When asked whether the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran would still be in effect after Irans latest attack on Kuwait, Trump said, "Everything happens for a reason," adding that the US military had launched a fairly heavy attack on Iran two nights ago, "so some things happen for a reason, and those reasons usually make some sense." He also said that Irans actions were "not a big deal," and that "we have the situation under control and have quickly nipped it in the bud."According to The Information, Meta Platforms (META.O) plans to charge up to $200 per month for its planned "Hatch" AI agent.Broadcom CEO: The company plans to deliver 10 gigawatts of computing power in 2027, and expects to achieve even greater computing power growth in 2028.

As a result of dismal Australian Employment data, the AUD/USD exchange rate falls further to about 0.69

Alina Haynes

Jan 19, 2023 15:14

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The AUD/USD pair has continued its slide to near 0.6900 after the Australian Bureau of Statistics published weaker-than-anticipated Employment (Dec) data. Contrary to market expectations, the Australian labor market has laid off 14,600 workers. The market had anticipated an increase of 22,500 employment. In addition, the Unemployment Rate has risen to 3.5%, exceeding both expectations and the prior estimate of 3.4%.

 

The growing unemployment rate will provide some relief to the Reserve Bank of Australia, although being destructive to the Australian economy (RBA). In an effort to address chronic inflation, Governor Philip Lowe of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.10 percent, which looks to have begun negatively impacting the labor market.

 

The Australian Property Investor (API) reported on Wednesday, "Despite the pain felt by homeowners attempting to meet mortgage repayments, recent buyers staring into the abyss of negative equity, and property prices falling at the fastest rate on record, it seems unlikely that rate hikes will abate soon." They noted that the increase in interest rates was the result of the 11.4% growth in household spending in November.

 

Worsening employment figures and a decrease in perceived risk appetite have damaged the Australian Dollar. As S&P500 futures have resumed their drop, investors' appetite for risk has diminished further following Wednesday's disastrous performance. The yields on U.S. Treasuries are supported by the concept of risk aversion gaining ground. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has surpassed 3.38 percent once again.