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September 11th - U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August as gasoline costs rebounded after two consecutive months of decline, strengthening financial markets expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates next week. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-over-month last month, following a slight increase of 0.1% in July. Consumer inflation rose 3.4% in the 12 months ending in August, unchanged from July. The seasonally adjusted core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in August, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%. Thursdays data already showed a rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in August, with several key components showing strong increases, which are included in the PCE inflation calculation. This, coupled with last weeks strong August jobs report, further boosted market expectations for a rate hike next week. After the release of the U.S. August CPI data, the market estimated a roughly 90% probability of a Fed rate hike next week.The market fully expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice before the end of the year.September 11 - Following the release of the US August CPI data, the market expects a 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week.The U.S. unadjusted annual inflation rate for used cars and trucks was -2.3% in August, compared with -1.9% previously.U.S. unadjusted new car inflation was 0.6% year-on-year in August, down from 0.5% in the previous month.

The AUD/JPY exchange rate fluctuates below 90.00 as investors await BoJ action

Alina Haynes

Jan 18, 2023 15:03

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In the early Asian session, the AUD/JPY currency pair is bouncing violently in a narrow range below the resistance level of 90.00. Before the Bank of Japan introduces its first monetary policy of CY2023, the risk barometer indicates a sideways auction (BoJ). The AUD/JPY exchange rate reflects the consolidation of the AUD/USD, indicating an uncertain risk profile.

 

Investors anticipate that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will not alter its policy stance on Friday, as doing so would increase financial market risk and hinder efforts to boost inflation. Previously, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced that the central bank will review the negative side effects of the decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy, generating the impression that the central bank is eager to abandon the easy policy.

 

The experts at Standard Charted expect the Bank of Japan to hold both the policy balance rate and the 10-year yield goal at their present levels of -0.1% and 0%, respectively. The recent decision to expand the 10-year JGB band to +/-50 bps (from +/-25 bps) will be evaluated by policymakers at the December meeting.

 

The replacement of current Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda will be widely followed. The next BoJ governor nominee is anticipated to be presented to the Japanese parliament on February 10, Reuters reported on Tuesday. Amamiya, Nakaso, and Yamaguchi are regarded as leading C.banking candidates.

 

Thursday is the expected publication date for Australian employment statistics, which investors are monitoring. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain constant at 3.4%, according to the majority of economists. Aside from this, the Australian economy must have added 22,500 new jobs to the labor market in December, a down from the prior rises of 64K.

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